Recent American fumbling with tariffs has given China more political elbow room.
Still, Beijing has three choices about how to handle America’s challenges: negotiation with the US and the rest of the world regarding trade, currencies and territorial claims; promoting a global alternative ideology like the USSR did last century; or isolating itself like North Korea.
In acronym form, it’s NAN—Negotiations, Alternative, North Korea. China may try to find a way to blend these three choices, as it is currently doing, but eventually, it might be compelled to choose one. It’s about what the People’s Republic of China (PRC) wants to be in this world.
It most likely will involve brinkmanship, with the threat and deterrence of the formidable (on paper) PLA (People’s Liberation Army).
Here is the rub. The international press is abuzz with rumors of the detention for corruption of He Weidong, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission chaired by President Xi Jinping.
It’s the latest in a series of similar arrests over the past few years. It will possibly not be the last, as scores of senior PLA officials could be investigated now. The charge is apparently corruption, a broad term covering political disloyalty to the top leader but also a genuine interest in monetary returns.
The corruption problem has plagued the Chinese military since Deng started his reforms almost 50 years ago. It is structural; power comes from the barrel of a gun, but why is the gun wielded and against whom, the internal or external enemy?
For example, soldiers in America risk their lives for America and its democratic values. In China, why? For communism? Not really.
For China? Not quite. China is represented by the party, but who is the party? Xi Jinping is the top leader. So, should Chinese soldiers die for Xi? Many may prefer money to Xi. Mao addressed this issue with the personality cult.
The Red Army fought for communism against the Nationalists and for the nation against the Japanese.
The army, as in all successful uprisings in Chinese history, was the key element to taking power. The party was the offspring of the army, not the other way around, like with the Soviet Revolution.
After the establishment of the PRC, communism turned out to be just the name of another Chinese dynasty, and Mao devised a personality cult to buttress his power.
The army would fight for the emperor just like they did for thousands of years or as the Japanese military did in World War II. Since the PLA was at his service, Mao used it for political infighting during the Cultural Revolution.
Subsequently, Deng needed to get the army out of factional politics, which involved giving them money. The plan took different shapes and forms over the following decades but stuck.
It had one constant—winning the army’s trust and support in return for economic advantages.
However, an army motivated by money is not ready to fight for the country or its leader. Now, Xi needs a fighting and loyal PLA because threats have become real, and as the war in Ukraine proves, battles are still a bloodbath, not a video game.
If money is removed from the PLA’s equation, it’s unclear what the army would be loyal to. Is it to Xi? Then, could a personality cult work now like it did 70 years ago? The Chinese have changed a lot since then.
Without an ideal, every general is for himself and may turn against the leader if the opportunity arises. The PLA is back in factional politics.
Perhaps He or Admiral Miao Hua, a Xi loyalist arrested last November, had a political agenda. In the present system, Xi’s advisors may have a vested interest in suggesting anti-US policies, which, if they fail, can help topple Xi and get them to the top position. It happened with Lin Biao in 1971 against Mao.
It doesn’t mean that China lacks soldiers willing to die. Hundreds of Chinese mercenaries in Ukraine demonstrate there is a possible pool.
The Russian experience shows there are ways to woo and coerce the poorest into the army ranks and files as cannon fodder. China has millions of potential volunteers from the countryside or provincial towns.
Still, the hanging question remains – how to motivate officers and generals?
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin offered a return to a neo-czarist order with the promotion and canvassing of the Russian Orthodox Church. As an extra, neo-czarism has an appeal to the Western ultra-right.
Then, Xi may need to pick a letter in the NAN acronym to gear the army for its task. Scores of self-appointed neo-Confucian philosophers beat the big drum of a Chinese order to challenge the Western one. However, the proposal de facto pushes China into a North Korean mode while Xi has not chosen his path.
If Xi chooses to offer the world an alternative global view, such as international comm-Confucianism, his army ideology must be ready. If the negotiation is clinched, then another ideology will be needed.
Indeed, there are many gray areas between the three picks, and Chinese leaders may try to straddle between them. But again, the PLA’s real capability and loyalty to their leadership could depend on the right choice.
An Italian analyst and commentator on politics with over 30 years of experience in China and Asia, Francesco Sisci is director of the Appia Institute, which originally published this article. It is republished with permission.
Mr. Sisci used to present balanced views on China. Now he seems always to be seeking some possibility of China failing.
I still take his ideas seriously, but they now seem to have a determined anti-China, or at least anti-Chinese-government, bias, and ignore the apparent support of the vast majority of Chinese for their government, which has helped them build a stable and fairly prosperous society.
Could China be even more prosperous and stable under another dispensation? Perhaps, perhaps not. That has to be argued in detail rather than just accepted as likely.
I’m an expert on Italians. They suckk.
The only Italian you are expert on is their food. You especially like their larger salsicce in your mouth.
Leftover Man.
Why don’t you use toilet paper when you open defecate. The only food you eat is curry. The only women you get are the ones you rape.
It is amazing that the author is claimed to have over 30 years of experience regarding to China yet get China so wrong on so fundamental levels. He surely have noticed that a number of senior officers have been removed because of corruption over the years. But has anyone observed any disloyalty issues? And Chinese Communist Party was established before The Red Army. That is a historical fact. The army had an outsized influence on Chinese politics, but the party has always maintained firm control of the army, not the other way around. Just read up on 三湾改编 and you would understand
Is that like the senior officers Stalin removed, corruption or just didnt agree with Winnie Xi Pooh?
Too many Europeans died for nothing in mere 31 years (1914-45) – 120,000,000 or 1 in 4.
Now, White Europe is dying by not having children. In 25 years or less, there will be no Germany, no Italy, no France, no Spain, … and in fact no Japan and no Canada. No children, no future.
The White Europeans came to America and decimated its red locals. Today, the dark interlopers to Europe do not have to do any such thing – the below-replenishment geriatric ward of the West is committing suicide. These dark skinned newcomers do not subscribe to European values, but will populate the land once the locals have disappeared by choice.
Reason – racism. Covid has shown that single-race is more prone to infection and death than mixed race ones. In a futile quest for the Master Race, White Europe practised miscegenation, and self-immolated itself.
As far as Confucian China, Christian Russia, and Fatimite Iran, the non-democratic Trio Republics, the newcomers on the global block, they will define the new world. Iran and Russia are already bi- or multi-racial, China’s prime reasons for BRI/New Silk Road are to firstly to enlarge its narrow gene-pool, and secondly to find a new ideology fit for the new globalized world of free trade, as China has been a net importer of ideologies – first Buddhism from India, then Communism and Capitalism from Europe. The search is by no means over.
So miscegenation is bad, but biracial Iran & Russia are OK?
China has a narrow gene pool? So is that why they all look the same ?
Correction – White Europe did not practice race mixing. In fact, the Nazis legally forbade it. Hence the gene-pool remained narrow, with poor immune system.
Race-mixing produces hybrid vigour, vitality, wide gene-pool, better immune system. In fact the march of nature is towards a Homo-Universalis with full gene-set and stellar immune system, a man who does not fall sick, and if does, self heals, obviating the need for healthcare, medication, etc.
What about Europeans, are they willing to die to defend their countries? Are Italians ready to die for Italy?
Wrong nation to start with, the Italians invented a tank with 5 reverse gears and only 1 forward.
I think alot of W Europeans would not, fight to defend the 3rd world trash (who won’t fight) and the elites who let them in?
{If money is removed from PLA’s equation, it’s not clear to what or whom its loyalty lies at a time war drums are rising}
THAT’s easy to find out. Just ask your 5-eye masters to do a neo-colonisation of China– like they colonised the homeland of the Feathered-Indians in North America.
They can even take along with them Mussolini’s fierce armies, which changed sides and stabbed the back of Hitler’s Wehrmacht as soon as the latter was down. The laundrymen have no hope against the braves Corleones– whose noses are most sensitive to the scent of money!!! 🙂
“soldiers in America risk their lives for America and its democratic values”. Seriously? Sure you mean in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq? They overthrew many legally selected governments in South America and supported some of the most terrifying dictatorship during the Cold War. Now we have somebody bragging about these butchers fighting for democratic values? what a joke
Francesco Sisci, cannot believe you wrote such a trash article. You meant to say that only white people would die for their country? so racism and bigotry. Shame on you.
He is one of the top Sinophobes here.
BS, BS, and more BS. Chinese nationalism is ingrained in its culture. During WWII, overseas Chinese flocked home to fight the Japanese. They bought planes and trained pilots, then sent them to fight in China. Those Chinese Volunteers did not fight in the Korean War for $$$.
They flocked home in WW2? Is that why the Japanese had their way in Nanking?
Face it, you are not a martial people – small, pigeon chested and small appendages.
Stick to laundries and take aways. I’ll have a 43, 20 and flied lice.
Like the 1962 toilet-hand Baka Capons.