With US military aid cut, Ukraine prepares to fight alone

“If we are not invited to NATO, we must build NATO on our territory,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The Economist published February 12, before his now historic White House showdown with Donald Trump.

His remarks came in response to prior signals from the Trump administration that Ukraine would not be joining the security alliance. After the Oval Office spat, and the news now that Trump is cutting off all military aid to Ukraine, imposing costs on Russia independent of Western supplies is even more important.

Since 2022, Ukraine has steadily expanded its ability to strike deep into Russian territory, refining its long-range capabilities in the process. In his New Year’s address, Zelensky highlighted these efforts, stating that Ukraine now produces over a million drones annually while ramping up missile manufacturing, calling them Ukraine’s “arguments for a just peace.”

Now as Ukraine enters its fourth year of war, long-range strike capabilities have become a cornerstone of its defense strategy. They are central to its effort to build NATO within its own borders. While Western military aid remains critical, Kyiv’s ability to produce its own missiles is emerging as a key pillar of deterrence and a way to impose greater costs on the Kremlin.

This shift in focus is also evident from Ukraine’s Western partners as Sweden’s latest US$1.2 billion military aid package earmarked $90 million for Ukraine’s missile and drone production. This capacity will be put to the test with Trump’s withdrawal of US military assistance.

Ukraine has concentrated its attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, particularly oil refineries – the backbone of Moscow’s war effort. Drone and missile strikes have by some estimates already knocked out 10% of Russia’s refining capacity, exposing the Kremlin’s vulnerability as it remains deeply reliant on oil revenues to sustain its war effort.

Four major Russian oil refineries have suspended operations following Ukrainian drone attacks just in the past month. Repeated strikes over the past year have pushed Russia’s average daily crude oil production to a 20-year low, while also helping bring Russia’s refining capacity to its lowest level in 12 years.

Ukraine has expanded its targeting beyond refineries to oil transport hubs, explosives factories, and ammunition depots. 

Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and a former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, in an interview highlighted the broader impact of these strikes, noting that “Russia’s oil industry is a crucial pillar of its economy – oil and petroleum products account for the bulk of its exports.”

Kuzan added that disrupting Russia’s refining capacity drives up domestic fuel prices, increasing economic strain and potentially public discontent. 

While Moscow has found ways to circumvent Western sanctions, Kuzan noted that it has no effective countermeasure against Ukraine’s evolving drone capabilities. Each successful strike erodes Russia’s war economy, making it harder to maintain supply chains, sustain mobilization and manage domestic stability, he said.

The pressure is mounting. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking after the opening of peace talks with the US, condemned Ukraine’s drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, stating: “This should reinforce the view that Zelensky and his team must be restrained and have their hands tied.”

Ukraine’s drone campaign is likely to intensify as the US backs away from its war effort. A Ukrainian drone unit commander who is leading these strikes explained to this writer that his unit’s primary goal is to disrupt logistics hubs, destroy ammunition warehouses and ease pressure on the front lines. With drones now capable of reaching 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), Ukraine can now hit deep inside Russia – an ability that continues to grow.

With limited supplies of Western long-range missiles, such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow, Ukraine has prioritized rebuilding its domestic production. As a result, Kyiv has set an ambitious goal: producing 3,000 long-range missiles by the end of 2025.

Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has doubled down this commitment, declaring that “2025 will be the year of the Ukrainian cruise missile.”

Obviously, missile production is inherently more complex than drone manufacturing. While Ukraine has successfully scaled up drone production, missile development requires specialized production lines, precision engineering and secure manufacturing facilities – all difficult to establish in wartime.

But despite wartime conditions, Ukraine has made significant progress in developing its own weapons. Several domestically produced systems are now in deployment. For instance, the Neptune, originally an anti-ship missile, was repurposed as the land-launched cruise missile that reportedly sank Russia’s Moskva missile cruiser in 2022.

The Hrim-2, a hypersonic ballistic missile, reportedly passed testing in late 2024, while the Palianytsia, a missile-drone hybrid, entered serial production in December. 

The Ukrainian military has also recently received its first batch of Peklo (a Ukrainian word for “hell”) missile drones, long-range munitions with a 700-km range and a jet engine reaching 700 km/h. Developed by Ukroboronprom in under a year, they are already in combat use and reportedly rival Russian cruise missiles at a fraction of the cost.

Further expanding its arsenal, Kyiv unveiled the Trembita light cruise missile in February. Designed for deep strikes, Trembita offers a low-cost alternative to Western munitions at just $4,000 per unit.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has called domestic missile production essential for strategic independence, stating: “Our priority is the development of domestic drones and long-range weapons, including ballistic missiles.”

With US military aid now cut, EU assistance levels uncertain and NATO membership out of reach, Ukraine’s path to building a stronger domestic deterrent against Russia depends on expanding its missile and drone production. 

After surrendering its nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum – with security assurances from Russia, the US and the UK – Ukraine was also left outside NATO’s protection in the decades that followed.

Now, Kyiv must focus on developing a long-range strike capability to raise the cost of war for Moscow. By producing its own arsenal, Ukraine can deal with US military cuts and external restrictions on weapon use to ensure it has the firepower to strike where and when it wants in Russia – and on its own terms.

Ukrainian-American frontline reporter-activist and security engineer David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He is on Twitter/X @DVKirichenko.