European leaders who have been strongly supporting keeping the Ukraine war going have been dealt a serious blow by President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Most of them must be in shock, gasping for breath.
Let’s start with Hegseth. He made the following declarations:
1. Ukraine’s membership in NATO is off the table. Ukraine won’t be invited to join NATO.
2. The US will not send any troops to Ukraine for any reason, including peacekeeping.
3. The US will no longer supply or pay for weapons and support for Ukraine. It will be up to the European NATO members to provide support to Ukraine.
4. While the US supports NATO, American participation has to be fair and equitable, meaning that NATO members will have to significantly increase their contributions.
5. Ukraine will not be able to go back to the borders it had before 2014, meaning that the US expects important territorial concessions from Ukraine.
President Trump, meanwhile, held an hour-and-a-half phone meeting with Russian President Putin. The key takeaway is that Putin said he is willing to start negotiations with the United States on Ukraine and other security issues.
The Trump-Putin conversation covered many topics, for example: security issues, energy, artificial intelligence and “the power of the dollar.”
Following the call, Trump apparently placed a call “to inform” Ukrainian President Zelensky of his conversation with Putin. He also immediately set up his negotiating team. He designated Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to lead the negotiations.
Significantly, the list of participants did not include retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg. Kellogg had been openly flogging the idea of significantly increasing sanctions on Russia as a way to get concessions on Ukraine. As he put it, on a scale of one to 10, current sanctions on Russia are only a three. He proposed raising them far higher (assuming this could be done).
These comments directly undermined Trump’s approach to Putin and Russia, and appear to have been Kellogg’s idea (among others) to make sure the Ukraine war continued. Whether Kellogg will again appear as a player in Ukraine remains to be seen.
It will take time for Europe’s pro-war leaders, along with the EU, to contemplate the future, now that the rug has pretty well been pulled out from under their feet.
The Europeans have neither the weapons, the troops nor the money to keep the war going in Ukraine. Nor will they get much support for continuing the war if the United States won’t play in the game. In fact, should Europe want to continue on its own, without the United States, it would risk the future of the NATO alliance.
Many of the leaders in Europe are in trouble domestically. Germany, France, Poland – and even Romania, where Presidential elections were canceled to prevent the leading opposition candidate from being elected – are examples of the growing instability in the European leadership class.
Revelations about US and EU interference in the electoral process in Georgia, Serbia and Slovakia, perhaps also Moldova, emphasize the squalid nature of current-day politics in Europe.
The Trump administration is liquidating USAID, which has been acting as a sort of CIA-front in many of the above countries, including Ukraine. With that source of money and support cut off, the EU is being handed a serious problem that goes well beyond finance. The phony argument that the EU (and, with it, NATO) is upholding democracy is now exposed. The loss of legitimacy is a real threat to the ruling elites.
Trump has an important geopolitical perspective. It runs something like this: European security is important but it is not really threatened by Russia. The US faces a resurgent China that has a (largely Western-supplied) very modern industrial base, a massive workforce and an increasingly well-equipped and powerful military.
From Trump’s point of view, he needs a more friendly Russia that can help balance global power relationships. To get there he needs to find ways to redefine the US-Russia relationship, which is in deep disarray and infused with mutual hostility. In his 90-minute conversation with Putin, Trump was poking at economic and technology capabilities that could, in future, provide a basis for improving relations.
No one can say right now whether a deal can be found for Ukraine, but there is reason to be more optimistic that the two sides can work something out.
We will need to see if the Europeans push back and try to sabotage a deal on Ukraine. The reality is that Europe has little it can do if Putin and Trump agree on a deal.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
This is the biggest surrender we have seen since Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea and/or surrendering the fight against open defection in India. Okay maybe not as big as the latter but right up there with the biggest.
The Europeans really are a dumb lot. Their enemies couldn’t have asked for a better outcome. De Industrialisation, unemployment, unaffordable cost of living. Anna baerbock and Ursula were the greatest gift. Even I underestimated their incompetence, but they delivered it in spades.
Why do you think that the Russian army was humiliated? Quite the opposite. You, as a representative of chickens, have neither brains nor memory. In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine received the most combat-ready armed forces and weapons. Since the Western Military District of the Soviet Union was the most important. Many Russian military pensioners (a military pensioner is only 40 years old) moved to live in Ukraine because of the good climate, and the language in Ukraine was Russian. Therefore, many Russians felt comfortable in Ukraine. These Russian military pensioners became the backbone of the Ukrainian army in the first months of the war. The only thing is that the Americans (but not Russia, represented by Yeltsin) insisted that the Russians take nuclear weapons from Ukraine!!! 30 years later, Russia began to fight with its own army, but only Ukraine was helped by the entire Western world. And Russia was able to withstand and even began to win!!! Even I, a patriot of Russia, did not believe that we would withstand without the use of nuclear weapons!!! This is a complete, unconditional victory of the Russian spirit.
Hegseth’s declarations probably gave Zelensky a mild stroke, he probably soiled his underpants as well. I’m glad the US put little Europe in its place. When we tell you bumpkins to jump, just ask how high then shut up. We’re dropping some tarriffs on you next, so the ripping off of US companies will stop. That stupid war was paid for by American taxpayers and Europe lost it, so we want all our money back.
I would say the Ukr and Zelenskiy have done a great job, humiliating the much vaunted Russian Army & Navy. It’s Europe (West) that have tried to play both ends against the middle. Biden & the Deep State were very happy to watch this destruction.
A great job is winning a war, not losing 20% of your territory. My grandma, armed with a sharp stick, could’ve beat Russia, a backward country with nukes. We were suckered into a costly war by biden and Nuland, and while Americans are suffering from high food prices we had to financially support another country with a president who just loves being on tv.
with the present very poor conscription into western european Nato armiesd trhe prospect of rea
20yrs after the Cuban Missile Crisis it became known it wasn’t a win for the US, but a draw. No missiles in Cuba = withdraw missiles from Turkey.
On the surface any deal will look good for Russia, saving Putin’s worthless hide. Rump Ukr with EU peacekeepers = a dagger pointed at Moskau. A Slavic brother since Catherine the Great who now hates Russia. Soldiers not ‘in’ NATO but trained and buying NATO gear. With the Euro’s taking responsibility. Sacre Bleu!
When Putin joins Mao, Stalin & Hitler with Old Nick the Russian Empire will continue to fall apart.
Meanwhile the Tiddlys will be surprised how quickly the Russ Oligarchs want to resume their western orientation, they are missing their western lifestyle – boats and gaffs in Peking & Honkers aren’t as much fun as Paris & Monaco.
With hindsight, would Zelensky do what he did more than 3 years ago? While Zelensky enjoyed his glory period, his people suffered. Zelensky is the one gasping for air now for survival. Probably same fate as Korean’s President, if not worse.
There is a war within stateside and the d..pstate vs T….. Its full effects are yet to be seen but certainly will be visible in time to come.
It’s important to remember that Ukraine, with Victoria Nuland playing a key role, was a geopolitical objective of the United States.
It’s hardly surprising that this has now resulted in Europe being left in a precarious position, embroiled in a conflict that was essentially provoked by the US.
That familiar PATTERN.
The familiar pattern of EU meddling in Yugo and Libya, then calling for help from the USA?
Europe? You mean Macro poncing about making grand statements, waving his arms and doing ….. nothing? Maybe if Germany was still run by Pietist Prussians keeping one wary eye on the eastern horizon, rather than Rhenisch Buchhalter? Even the Brits, can’t even run their own country properly, let alone EU.
No, Europe is in a mess of it’s own making.
You fail too see the big picture here first off it’s in our best interest too reaffirm that NATO is united we need NATO to take on China and now North Korea is getting combat experience and much better missile tech from Russia Iran has been acting up and Trump kills our soft power and now he doesn’t take advantage of a weak Russia and the resources we desperately need from Ukraine while upsetting our allies how does it make sense why weaken the US globally? Why emboldened China too do as they wish? But you think the UK should follow suit? Oh hell no and if it was about NATO why didn’t Russia invade the two border states former USSR nations that joined NATO after the invasion? You seriously don’t see how Trump is weakening the US globally?
Right NATO has been right behind the USA in so many conflicts. French providing tanks with 4 reverse gears but 1 forward, the Italians placed at the front (who’d want them in the rear with sharpened bayonets), the Germans providing, erm well nothing and the Brits providing the SAS (good) along with 2 fat blokes looking after some regimental mascot (a ferocious Yorkie). Spanish/Greeks? Entertainment value only. The Poles, Nogs, Finns, Balts and Czechs are the only worthwhile allies.
If NATO is about nations pulling their collective weight, it has been a failure since the 90’s.
Soft power has weakened the USA, Trump is exposing the reality. If you want to act big, then man up (here’s looking at you Scholtz/Macron!). Don’t rely on the US while taking them for a ride, and sneering at their awful table manners.
“The Trump administration is liquidating USAID, which has been acting as a sort of CIA-front in many ……. countries.”
We in Hongkong certainly suspected that during the riots in our home city in 2019 when people from the American consulate handed out money and supplies to the rioters, and now it’s confirmed!
Did Winnie Xi Pooh pay you to write that?
Britain needs to get in behind the United States on this one. There is no virtue in staying aboard a sinking ship. The European Union is a ship of fools.
That is brave statement especially knowing that US is right now lead by clown and criminal.
Trump is as much of a criminal as Xi & Putin.
It is the policy not the person. President Trump and Cabinet are a breath of fresh air. If Donald is a criminal for paying his tart to keep her mouth shut, then were are all criminals in our desire for self preservation.
EU : totally agree. I have v strong links E of Germany. Love the Vaterland, but the EU is finished.
UK : it seems to be the only foreign country that DT has any affection for – shared history, royals, Scotch Mom? Who knows.
But I doubt DT will trust the ‘blob’ in the UK. Labour (Lammy) or Tory polies who have insulted or sneered at him. Or the Civil Service and left wing judiciary who have undermined the sovereignty, armed forces, police, let alone the wealth or moral fiber of Old Blighty.
If the scribes are right that in 2025 the UK will be forced to ask for an IMF bailout, Trump/Musk can go all out on regime change based on security. Inform Starmer of 25% tariffs and that the UK will be shut out of the 5I’s, satellite coordinates etc. This emasculates the UK armed forces.
Starmer has to call an election. A combination of dry Tories & Reform win. UK/Aus are drawn into a free trade/movement with the US. The blob (and 1.2m illegals) are removed.
Here’s hoping.
Americans who visit England feel only pity for the people there. They’re very poor.
Same back in the 50’s and 60’s. US oil patch workers were shocked at the state of England in the 60’s. They still had bomb craters.