Photo: Wikimedia Commons

When Donald Trump assumed power in the United States for a second time, it was initially assumed that it didn’t bode well for Ukraine.

During his first term, Trump maintained questionable connections to Russia. Furthermore, his claim that he would end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a day — with Russia still occupying much of Ukraine — led many analysts to believe that any such policy would favor the Russians.

These fears, at least so far, have not come to pass. In Trump’s inaugural address, many of the items he highlighted on the campaign trail figured prominently.

Noticeably absent, however, was Ukraine. When it comes to Trump’s “America First” philosophy, Ukraine and Russia have seemingly lost significance.

Strategy of distraction

Trump, with his bombastic nature, dominates the media cycle. His proclamations, social media statements threats and insults occur with such regularity that it’s difficult for anyone to keep pace.

Just as one news item comes into focus, a new comment or ultimatum overtakes it.

In many ways, this works to Trump’s advantage. People can be too distracted by the latest outlandish statement to pay close attention as Trump pursues his ambitious domestic policy goals. Lost in the media turmoil of Trump’s executive orders, tariff threats and heightened deportation campaign has been a shift on Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine, for Trump, is a secondary concern. His priorities, first and foremost, are domestic and aimed at remaking America.

As such, rather than being driven by any foreign policy goals, Trump’s engagement with Ukraine and Russia will be determined by how he perceives he can benefit domestically in return. His calculations, in this regard, appear to have shifted.

Complicated relationship with Ukraine

Trump’s relationship with Ukraine during his first term was, to put it mildly, difficult. His infatuation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and Russia’s open disdain for Ukraine, caused him to largely ignore the country.

When he did pay attention to Ukraine, it was as part of an effort to acquire information to damage his presumed political rival, former president Joe Biden. This effort resulted in Trump withholding aid from Ukraine unless it acquiesced to his demands.

Trump’s position on Ukraine, however, has shifted over time. His antagonistic relationship with President Volodymyr Zelensky has seemingly improved.

While there are still tension points, most notably when Zelensky visited Pennsylvania during the US presidential election campaign, Trump has moderated his comments on his Ukrainian counterpart. Ukraine’s purchase of American equipment and ammunition, furthermore, supports Trump’s focus on domestic production.

Lastly, Trump has expressed interest in accessing Ukraine’s rare earth metals. China currently dominates the rare earth metal market, which puts the US at a disadvantage due to the minerals’ importance for future technological innovation. That means Trump has a stake in Ukraine’s future.

While these developments don’t mean the relationship is perfect, Trump is unlikely to be a burden to Ukraine. This development is in part due to his declining view of Putin.

Trump/Putin relationship

The initial assumption of many analysts when Trump came to power again was that he would immediately favor Putin. The close relationship between the two is well-documented and has been open to considerable speculation as to why Trump curried favor with Putin to such an extent in his first term.

Trump, however, has upped his rhetoric against Russia since assuming the presidency. First, he threatened Putin with additional economic sanctions. Second, he stated that he would like OPEC to increase oil production and, therefore, inhibit Russia’s war effort by undermining its primary source of revenue.

Why the pivot? It likely goes to the core foundation of Trump’s persona: He likes winners. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia and Putin have displayed considerable weakness in execution during the war. The Russian military, once feared globally, has largely proven to be a paper tiger.

While Russia still has several advantages in the war, it is only doing so by leveraging its future. According to Trump, Russia is in “big trouble” in terms of its economic woes. Trump is not alone in this view. Analysts, as well as perhaps Putin himself, recognize the serious challenges facing the Russian economy.

It’s not just economically that Russia has leveraged its future. To avoid straining the Russian people, Putin has reached a deal with North Korea, which is providing soldiers for the war against Ukraine.

Furthermore, Russia has deepened ties with Iran in exchange for Iranian drones.

What Putin has provided North Korea and Iran in exchange for these soldiers is unclear. That said, Russia can only provide any technological exchanges for these soldiers and drones one time, as once shared, the same technology cannot be part of other arrangements.

This reality limits Russia’s influence in the years ahead.

The new art of the deal?

Trump, almost certainly, wants to make a peace deal on Ukraine. It would burnish his reputation as a statesman while simultaneously demonstrating American strength and influence to the world at a minimal cost to the US.

The terms of that deal, however, have shifted in the face of Russian weakness.

That’s why it’s not surprising that the mercurial Trump has pivoted his stance on Russia. Until Russia can display the strength that Trump thought it possessed, he’s unlikely to do the Russians any favors in the future.

James Horncastle is an assistant professor and the Edward and Emily McWhinney professor in international relations at Simon Fraser University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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32 Comments

  1. Possibile che non ci sia nessun moderatore per chiudere la bocca a questo idiota filo nazista che non porta nulla alla convesazione se non la sua stupidità? E’ peggio di una zecca.

    1. Is it possible you can post in English, even the CCP Wumao’s can post in it.
      1 forward gear, 5 reverse. Worry about what is happening in your own country with Meloni.

        1. And I have no time for the people who stole and raped their way through S America and left it broken with no stable rule.

  2. Throughout human history, the strong have always shaped history—the rules of their time. In the new millennium, the time has come for CHANGE—a reform of the new RULES set by the strongest powers from the USA, China, and Russia to achieve an end to wars and establish peace, trade, and a common currency. This involves the creation of a new financial and global system through the development of a unified digital currency on our planet.

    1. Oh right and if Russia, China and USA are not setting the rules… will it be the EU?
      Go back to Pressburg in Upper Hungary and take Babis with you.

  3. Russia is stronger today than when they invaded in 2022 and almost lost. Most of the war cost is roubles denominated, which is to say they are working up their own resources, and the portion that requires foreign exchange is easily covered by export receipts. Shops are full of consumer goods from China, which indicates they have foreign exchange to spare. They also have 580 billion dollars equivalent in foreign exchange reserves. The mistake the government is making, however, is allowing too high inflation. History holds the lesson. The German economy in 1938, all the slack having been taken out, Reichbank President Hjalmar Schacht told the Nazis if they wanted a further increase in armaments they needed to raise taxes. The advice was unpopular and he was dismissed. Putin is in the same position of not wanting to introduce unpopular tax rises.

    1. Good comparison with the Nazis; the Russ have burned through their sovereign wealth fund, and are reliant on China (who have their eyes on Siberian resources).
      Russia has lost friends in Armenia, Azerbajan and finally Ukr. A brother Sovic country who now hate them.
      The ethnic Russian TFR (increasing in the 2000’s under Putin) is back to Soviet levels. 600k dead or casualties – peanuts for Stalin, but not for today’s Russland.
      This is a country with no futire.

  4. What is this author on about? Trump sours on anyone and anything that doesn’t give way to him be they allies and/or adversaries.
    Russia is currently progressing on all parts of the front in their ‘Special Military Operation’ and are also willing to tackle NATO if they actually directly intervened (so called foreign volunteers for the Ukrainian side are finding out the hard way).
    NK soldiers in Kursk, Russia, was a lie like a lot of the Ukrainian propaganda but even if true would be covered by the Russian/N. Korean defence agreement (it would be N. Korea helping Russia defend its territory).
    Iranian drones for Russia was a smart stop gap measure at the onset of Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ until the Russian’s MIC got into gear. The two countries have now signed an initial strategic partnership agreement.
    Russia today is one of the few European countries that has a growing economy and in fact they face problems with inflation. They are lucky they are dealing with China that exports deflation. Also, they are not on a war-footing economy as they are only using 4% of their GDP in the SMO showing the benefit of their purchasing power parity costs and penalties for procurement corruption. Russia is in a better position than the EU which, owing to incompetent decision making and US arm-twisting, is now de-industrializing and declining.
    Finally, there are reports that Trump might just walk away from Ukraine which would leave Europe holding the baby.

    1. Russland is face inflation because they are using their wealth fund to buy ytheir way out of the export bans. They aren’t lucky in dealing with China, China now owns a significant % of Siberia’s resources and has moved in 1-2m people.
      So Russia is advancing? OK, but this SMO was only meant to take 3-6wks. How long has it been?
      How many young Russ have died?
      An Iranian ‘stop gap’? So Russ didn’t have the original capacity for the 3wk SMO?
      So weak they couldn’t defend Armenia or Syria and p’ed off Azerbajan by shooting down a plane.
      Meanwhile so many Central Asians are flooding in Moskau.

      Putin has brought forward the eventual (final) collapse of the Russian Empire that was 500yrs in the building.

  5. Everyone, particularly the Left, do not understand Trump. Like Putin & Xi he’s a narcissist. There is no way he will do any deal that will make him look weak. He knows Russia is finished and if he has any sympathy with Putin, it’s because he knows the Deep State have been focused on the destruction of Russia for 30yrs while they ignored China’s catching up by stealing technology. (The USA did exactly the same in the late 1800’s).
    He knows the West threw away the chance in the 90’s to have Russia inside the tent looking out, rather than outside looking in. We humiliated them, ala the Caudine Forks, without defanging the bear.
    Putin is between a rock and a hard place. If he looks weak the nationalists will take over and they will be much worse. Europe has been playing both sides (US/Russ) running back to the USA when things don’t go the way they want. So if they want a ‘Common European Home’ from the Atlantic to the Urals they will have to do the heavy lifting.
    If Trump likes any other country it’s not his ancestral Heimat, Germany, but his Mom’s country Scotland/UK. But that’s also transactional, ie not with Starmer. He’s USA first, second and third. Fit in or F off.
    Why on earth does a multimillionaire want to become the POTUS and go through all the opprobrium when if the fake news was correct he could live out his life playing golf and have Russian ladies raining on him? MAGA.
    So it’s going to be interesting. I can’t see him bullying Russia or China in the same way he did with Canada etc. They have nukes.
    But him and his mob (!) obviously have a plan. He’s gathered a bunch who think outside the box and realise the US’s last 30yrs of foreign meddling have produced nothing positive, either for the world or the USA.
    It’s going to be an interesting 4yrs, and maybe more if Vance takes over.

  6. Hahaha…..Did you taste sour grape juice in this not-so-subtle Trump-is-great-Putin- is-weak article? No wonder Trump thinks Canada is better served as the US 51st state.

      1. Why not, Canada, then? BTW, about half of Taiwanese are amenable to that idea. Not Canadians, last time I heard.

  7. In the east and south of Ukraine, there are SIGNIFICANT RESOURCES for the BRICS economy worth $15 trillion (Putin already owns 70% of Ukraine’s raw material resources today). Thus, Putin is carrying out the so-called denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine…
    We know that whoever controls the economy also controls politics – and politicians.
    Since China is buying up car manufacturers in the EU and will eventually dominate the EU economy, it is likely that the EU and NATO will collapse in Europe, and Europe will consist of independent states controlled by BRICS countries.

    1. What do they put in the water in Upper Hungary?
      BRICs controlling Europe…. you’re having a lerf.

          1. Vedo che, oltre al noto deficit cognitivo che ti affligge, sei anche in malafede e ben comprendi l’italiano

  9. Using propaganda points to show Russia is weak and trying to make a point based on that makes this an article that just cannot be taken seriously.

    1. OK try this. 300yrs the Russ & Ukr fought and suffered together. Today the Ukr’s hate Russia. In the last 30yrs Russia lost it’s reluctant allies (Warsaw Pact) and some of it’s former colonies (Balts). Parts of Russia would also leave (Chechnya, Dagestan) while Siberia is being taken over by China.
      The 3wk SMO is still going after 3yrs, proving that the feared Russian army is incompetent, while the Navy is confined to port. 600k dead or seriously wounded (a figure accidentally released by the Russ Govt).
      The wealth fund depleted. TFR’s of ethnic Russ back down to 1980’s levels.
      These are facts, not propaganda.
      Putin has hastened the final collapse of Russia.

  11. The billionaires and politicians lust over the mineral wealth in Ukraine. Those US capitalists want it all to themselves not Russia, not Ukraine