China’s exports grew 10.7% year-on-year in December, outpacing November’s 6.7% gain and beating analyst forecast of 7.3% growth.
Restocking in anticipation of tariffs accounted for a small part of the gain, but the main driver of Chinese exports remains the Global South, especially to countries where China is building infrastructure. China’s exports to the Global South exceeded its shipments to all developed markets in 2023, and the shift toward the developing world continues.
Exports to the US now comprise just 15% of China’s total shipments, down from 20% in 2018. In December, China sold US$137 billion in goods to the Global South, compared with just $108 billion to all developed markets.
The biggest year-on-year gain in December came from Indonesia, whose purchases from China were up 50% on the previous December. China is building high-speed rail and telecom infrastructure in Southeast Asia’s largest country.
The chart above shows the change in total exports for 2024 vs. total exports for 2023. Brazil and Indonesia, which together have almost half a billion people, both rose by 18% over the period, along with Vietnam. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, also increased its purchases from China by nearly 20%. By contrast, gains in exports to the US and Europe were small, and Japan showed a small decline.
The US in December took only 15% of China’s exports, down from a peak of 20% in 2018.
Washington’s ability to pressure China through tariffs or other import restrictions has diminished as the center of gravity of China’s trade shifted to the Global South.
Indonesia is a standout in China’s export profile. Its purchases from China have tripled during the past four years to $9 billion a month, or an annual rate of $108 billion.
The Carnegie Endowment wrote in December 2023, “Over the past decade, China has made massive investments in Indonesia through Belt and Road, spanning various sectors such as infrastructure and mining. The BRI framework has solidified China’s position as one of Indonesia’s largest trading partners…. Chinese investments have the potential to bolster Indonesia’s economic growth, particularly when directed toward infrastructure development.”
Chinese investments in Indonesia include the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railroad, a national 5G broadband network, container ports and automated warehouses. Its GDP growth during 2023 and 2024 was among the highest in the region at 5%.
The long-term viability of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the prospects for its export trade with the Global South depend on whether its trading partners can use imports to foster future growth. There are any number of failures in the Belt and Road portfolio, but Indonesia appears to be succeeding.
Follow David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman
BYD’s factory is also being build near Jakarta, and will start to ship late 2025
Make no mistake, it is china now wants decoupling from the US, not the other way around. Boeing will see their plane orders from China diminishes rapidly. China would not care about how much tariff trumps wants to put up. It’s the American consumers who suffer, you idiot.
50% of the Chinese people will be pleased to have larger sausages from Europe and Africa for their consumption.
How about using more than the crap little bits of brain that you have left?
China is the world’s main source of capital, not the US. Those dollars are just papers, goods are the real tangible capital.
And the US has been exchanging these worthless paper for geegaws from China. Nice job Winnie Xi Pooh.
Great leadership . Imagine Biden or Trump. LOL
15% of Chinese exports still bound to the US, down from 20% in 2018…China must keep working to decrease economic trade with that country. A good thing to do is to buy even less agriculture commodities from the US, turning to other countries as Brazil and Russia.
Brasil and Russia have larger sausages that 50% of the Chinese population prefer.
doesn’t matter they will help China crush American and pawn Crooach. beside, American’s Allies like you already had plenty American bases in your country for your women to be had in those bases – Screaming
mature market vs. emerging market?
Yup but still trading in USD
de-USD