Project 33: US Navy’s plan to beat China by 2027

The US Navy is racing to overhaul its force structure and readiness for a potential showdown with China over Taiwan as early as 2027.

USNI reported this month that the US Navy, under Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Lisa Franchetti, has issued new guidance to prepare for a potential conflict with China by 2027.

According to USNI, the “Chief of Naval Operations Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy,” also called the “Project 33” plan, aims to address maintenance backlogs and recruiting challenges and focus on readiness, capability and capacity.

The plan sets two primary goals: enhancing naval readiness and strengthening the US Navy’s role in the broader US joint warfighting ecosystem.

It identifies seven critical areas, including addressing maintenance backlogs, scaling robotic and autonomous systems, improving sailor recruitment and retention, and bolstering infrastructure.

The plan emphasizes multi-domain operations and technological innovation in response to heightened global threats—specifically from China’s expanding military capabilities and Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions.

It seeks to ensure that the US Navy maintains its superiority through readiness, joint force integration and warfighter competency, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), robotics and distributed maritime operations.

It underscores the importance of executing these initiatives swiftly to meet future challenges while preparing for sustained, high-end combat.

While the US Navy accelerates its efforts to counter China’s growing naval power, it faces the stark reality of lagging shipbuilding capacity and outdated kill chains that risk exposing critical vulnerabilities in a potential conflict.

Asia Times has previously noted that the US faces critical challenges in naval shipbuilding as it struggles to keep pace with China’s rapid naval expansion. China now has the world’s largest navy, with 370 ships and submarines and over 140 major surface combatants.

China’s 13 naval shipyards have more capacity than all seven naval US shipyards combined, highlighting the US’ growing disadvantage in naval shipbuilding.

Further, US shipyards face skilled labor shortages, exacerbated by past budget cuts and layoffs that have depleted the specialized workforce needed for naval construction.

Moreover, outdated procurement strategies and reliance on high-cost, legacy warships such as aircraft carriers, destroyers and amphibious assault ships further hinder the US’s ability to rapidly scale up its fleet.

China’s civil-military fusion strategy, allowing it to build both military and civilian vessels in the same shipyards, has boosted its efficiency and production capacity.

While outsourcing US naval shipbuilding to crucial allies such as Japan and South Korea has been explored as a viable means to boost US Navy ship numbers, some have expressed concerns that doing so would be akin to surrendering a strategic US capability to third parties, impacting US sovereignty.

In May 2024, Asia Times noted that US kill chains—the processes and assets involved in detecting, locating, tracking, targeting, attacking and assessing battle damage in the Indo-Pacific region—have limited adaptability and information exchange capabilities, hindering their effectiveness in potential conflict scenarios.

China may exploit such a vulnerability through its Multi-Domain Precision Warfare (MDPW) concept, which uses AI and big data to quickly identify weaknesses in the US operational system and combine forces from multiple domains to launch precision strikes on those weak spots.

As integrating robotics and AI becomes crucial in naval warfare, the US Navy’s drive to acquire and incorporate autonomous systems into its force structure demonstrates its strategy to counter China’s shipbuilding advantage through technological innovation and disruptive combat tactics.

In February 2024, Asia Times mentioned that the US Department of Defense (DOD) is soliciting design proposals for low-cost, autonomous drone boats under the Production-Ready, Inexpensive, Maritime Expeditionary (PRIME) Small Unmanned Surface Vehicle (SUSV) project.

The initiative aims to enhance maritime expeditionary capabilities, particularly in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The project seeks designs capable of traveling 500 to 1,000 nautical miles while carrying a 1,000-pound payload and achieving at least 35 knots speeds with autonomous navigation even in GPS-denied environments.

The PRIME initiative may fall into a more extensive US “Hellscape” strategy to counter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This plan involves deploying swarms of unmanned drones, submarines and surface ships in the Taiwan Strait to delay Chinese forces for up to a month, allowing time for US and allied intervention.

However, USVs have significant technological and cybersecurity limitations. Simulations suggest drone swarms could overwhelm China’s defenses but concerns remain about their vulnerability to electronic warfare and cyberattacks. Further, their proposed mass deployment emphasizes the need for a diversified and resilient manufacturing supply chain.

As the US struggles to bolster ship numbers and integrate new technologies, it faces the urgent dilemma between maintaining immediate readiness for potential conflicts and investing in long-term modernization to stay ahead of evolving near-peer competitor threats.

In a February 2022 Proceedings article, Aaron Marchant mentions that the US Navy faces a critical challenge in shifting from a short-term “can-do” culture to a long-term combat-ready mindset to address great power competition, particularly against China and Russia.

Marchant notes that the US Navy’s can-do attitude has historically driven operational success. However, he points out that recent trends reveal a readiness deficit exacerbated by high operational tempos, inadequate training and manning shortfalls. He says that despite efforts to address these issues, the US Navy struggles to balance operations, maintenance and training.

He emphasizes that for the US Navy to succeed in future engagements, it needs to cultivate a culture that emphasizes preparedness for combat, requiring well-trained, rested and fully staffed crews.

Marchant says it also requires institutional changes such as improved training and staffing practices while drawing from the experiences of the US Marine Corps, US Coast Guard and allied navies.

Marchant emphasizes that the US Navy’s long-term success hinges on its ability to adapt and prepare for high-end maritime combat, moving beyond the short-termism that has characterized its recent past.

Michael Bayer notes in an April 2023 article for National Defense Magazine that the US Navy conducts high-tempo operations daily on a global scale, creating intense demand for high-end naval combatants such as nuclear submarines, destroyers, aircraft carriers and cruisers. Bayer mentions that such demand consumes crucial platform readiness and limited funding.

He says that this situation will perpetuate the internal debate about whether the US Navy should immediately support ongoing operations, readiness and ship maintenance amid the conflicting future needs for developing new vessels, hypersonic weapons, directed energy weapons and innovative autonomy.