For Japan’s defense, it matters who’s prime minister

After a long three years in office by modern standards, Fumio Kishida won’t be Japan’s prime minister after September. Japanese prime ministers, with the exception of the late Shinzo Abe, seem to come and go so often that one might think it isn’t important who is actually national leader.

But it does matter, especially when it comes to Japan’s defense, which has made unusual progress in recent years. One worries that with a different prime minister, Japan’s efforts to bolster defense will drift, as has historically been the case.  

There have been a few interludes of relatively rapid and measurable progress, but by and large, things drift no faster or slower than Japan feels like moving.

And nothing that might provoke too much Asahi Shinbun criticism, or that might upset the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)’s coalition partner, Komeito, or even the “leftist” factions in the LDP itself.

So Japan ends up doing what is easy – rather than what it needs to do – regardless of regional circumstances and rising threats just beyond Japan’s borders.  

For the last decade or more, these threats have been unmistakable as the People’s Republic of China gears up to teach Japan a lesson—and finally has the means to do so. Not to mention its friends in Pyongyang and Moscow, who will likely help out.

Japan’s defense progress over the last few years has been exceptional, even if it could have been faster. Kishida deserves credit—even if he just had the good sense not to unduly interfere with the progress that was being made.  

These improvements didn’t happen by coincidence. Two of Kishida’s defense ministers, Minoru Kihara and Nobuo Kishi, were among the best of the more than 40 or so defense ministers (or Defense Agency heads) who have served since I got involved with Japan in the early 1990s. For starters, both were interested in learning their portfolios, setting them apart from 90% of their predecessors.

Kihara has some good advisors and there are other solid officials sprinkled throughout the bureaucracy who have quietly supported defense initiatives. The chief of staff of the JSDF Joint Staff, General Yoshihide Yoshida, is also excellent, with a sound understanding of Japan’s defense requirements.

However, this may not continue if the new prime minister cleans house to put a new team in place. Even more than before, the focus could well be on domestic issues that have more to do with keeping the LDP in power than defense matters that keep Japan safe and independent.

Defense has never been a priority for most of Japan’s political class or the public at large, even though the Japanese public assumes that “somebody” is looking after Japan’s defense. Yes, many politicians and most of the public are wary of China, but that doesn’t translate into defense being a vote-getter that warrants focused effort and clear thinking.

That’s the case in many, if not most, democracies. With a couple of exceptions, Sanae Takaichi (currently minister for economic security) and Diet member Takayuki Kobayashi, it is unclear that defense is a priority for most of the candidates for prime minister. 

But what about Shigeru Ishiba?  He’s the front-runner for prime minister and earlier served as defense minister and also head of the former Defense Agency.  He’s impressive on paper, but one is not convinced he’s the expert he thinks he is.

Japan also has “don’t provoke China” and “must do business with China” constituencies in its business and political classes, including within the LDP itself. And China’s elite capture has been as successful in Tokyo as it has been in Washington, DC.

So one shouldn’t be surprised to see a push for a “reset” with the People’s Republic of China to “dial things down.” 

It’s not that Japan’s defense will be ignored. A certain momentum will continue, but it could be slower and without proper focus. Some would say it will be just the bare minimum to keep the Americans on the hook to underwrite Japan’s defense and fill in any gaps.

But isn’t Japan building warships and submarines and acquiring advanced fighter jets—including joint development with the British and Italians? 

It is. But the Japanese navy and air force are about half the sizes they need to be, and there doesn’t seem to be any serious plan to address this issue. Meanwhile, recruiting shortfalls contribute to the problem.  

And what of getting the Japan Self Defense Force, and Japan writ large, ready to fight a war? It’s an obvious objective but progress towards this end has been challenging despite some progress. Things could become even harder if Kishida’s successor has other priorities.

So it very much matters who is Japan’s next prime minister. 

A Japanese prime minister, no matter who it is, has the authority to do whatever needs to be done defense–wise—if there’s also the nerve. It just needs leadership and will—and explaining to the public what needs to be done and why. 

That’s hard. It’s easier just to drift, but Japan’s next leader cannot afford to.

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Self Defense Force and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of the book “When China Attacks: A Warning To America.”