Last week in Astana, I asked Roman Vassilenko, deputy foreign minister, what Kazakhstan means by its so-called “multi-vector” foreign policy – a term regularly bandied about in academic circles.
Vassilenko said that Kazakhstan has been able to secure and promote its national interests because the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ diplomatic outreach has been smart and flexible rather than dumb, pushy, and ideological. He said this without an observable trace of hubris.
Vassilenko explained it this way: “Our diplomatic skills are rooted in the traditional world view of the Kazakh people who, for millennia, protected their interests not through war but through what we today call diplomacy. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev carries on in the same tradition. We are sandwiched between great powers and civilizations, and, for this reason, we have always strived to build constructive, mutually respectful, mutually beneficial relations with neighboring countries.”
What’s more, Kazakhstan does not see itself as a pawn in someone else’s “Great Game,” and rejects any attempt to be treated as such. Rather, Kazakhstan maintains that it has chosen its own path of socio-political development. Like India, Kazakhstan, always alert to outside pressures, has no desire to buy into whatever web any great power may be spinning at any given time. It remains to be seen how well Kazakhstan can withstand great power arm-twisting when it happens.
Vassilenko insists that the proof is in the pudding: “We are a nation at peace with ourselves, at peace with our neighbors, and at peace with the rest of the world,” he said. “And despite a difficult and tense geopolitical environment, we are able to maintain and develop relations with Russia, China and the West, not to mention the Arab, Turkic and broader Muslim world.”
Vassilenko is saying that the most rational path for Kazakhstan is to engage in commonsense, pragmatic realpolitik that observes international law and pursues humanitarian concerns. For this reason, Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, he says, is neither ideological nor dogmatic but seeks mainly to further the public good.
On a diplomatic roll
During our conversation, Vassilenko left no room for doubt that Kazakhstan, despite living in a world gone mad, has been on a diplomatic roll since the failed coup d’etat against President Tokayev in 2022. Kazakhstan has managed relations with its near neighbors with savvy and skill, and the country is, after all, stable.
Vassilenko said that Kazakhstan] and “its foreign partners, including the West, must continue to seize the moment, carpe diem, i.e., do things as soon as possible because time is of the essence. We need to advance in three areas without hesitation – transport and logistics, rare earth metals and green energy, including green hydrogen.”
He believes that “the time is conducive to attract large sums of long-term capital into the region.” When asked to explain why global interest in Central Asia has skyrocketed, he said that “governments and investors see that the process of Central Asian cooperation has gained momentum and is here to say. Moreover, Kazakhstan has addressed sovereign risks through internal political and economic reforms.”
Vassilenko rejects criticism from those who say that Kazakhstan is endangering its sovereign independence by engaging with its neighbors in the development space. “We are not afraid of taking investment capital from China, Russia, the US or Europe as long as the terms are clear, favorable and in the interest of the people.” Stated differently, Kazakhstan’s well-wishers should give it more credit when it engages its neighbors because it knows its neighbors better than anyone else.
Concerning debt traps – an issue often raised by Western media – Vassilenko said: “Yes, the Chinese have made loans to finance projects in Kazakhstan but [these loans] are at very, very manageable levels. We are aware of the idea of ‘debt traps’ but we are nowhere near the situation where we should be worried about [over-indebtedness] as a threat to our national sovereignty. You can be sure that Kazakhstan will not overload its sovereign balance sheet with debt that is unpayable by future generations.”
Bakhty-Tacheng border crossing
Vassilenko confirmed that Kazakhstan will build a third rail and road border crossing between Kazakhstan and China. In addition to crossings at Khorgos and Dostyk on the China-Kazakhstan border, we will proceed to build the third at Bakhty, in the north-east of Kazakhstan, adjacent to Tacheng, China. It will serve not only the northeastern part of Kazakhstan but Russia, as well. This is what I mean by ‘carpe diem’ – Kazakhstan will seize opportunities on its terms when they arise.”
‘Central Asia plus China’ format
“Central Asian countries,” Vassilenko emphasized, “have had very high-level cooperation with Beijing through the ‘Central Asia Plus China’ format – and these are not simply beautiful words. This multilateral arrangement with China has been more productive and fruitful than many of the twelve other formats [such as with the United States, the EU, South Korea, Japan, Gulf Cooperation Council, etc.]. With President Xi Jinping himself chairing the most recent in Xi’an, China, the five regional countries and China have set up a permanent ‘Central Asia Plus China’ secretariat. We are unanimous in developing fruitful multifaceted cooperation that meets the fundamental interests of all countries and their peoples. This is a concrete expression of multilateralism.”
Kazakhstan hasn’t buckled under pressure to take sides in one or another of the great powers’ ideologically motivated projects. “What is the sense of taking sides?” Vassilenko asks, adding:“We believe grand initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative, EU’s Global Gateway or G7’s Program for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) are complementary as far as Kazakhstan is concerned as they help achieve our goal of turning Kazakhstan into a connecting hub in the center of this huge continent.”
He concludes: “We’re not looking to irk anyone but rather further our interests peacefully. And we believe there’s enough space for mutually beneficial cooperation with all.”
The deputy minister finished by quoting Tokayev’s recent address to foreign diplomatic missions accredited in Astana: “Kazakhstan’s [diplomacy] is very simple and clear – we do not believe in zero-sum games. We wish to replace the ‘Great Game’ with Great Gain for all in the heart of Eurasia. We are interested in maintaining and strengthening trust, friendship, and strategic partnership with our neighbors and with all countries that are really interested in developing cooperation with Kazakhstan.”