Recent political developments in Germany, highlighted by the boycott of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s speech to the Bundestag by lawmakers from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) parties, underscore significant geopolitical ramifications for Europe.
The Bundestag event and the broader electoral success of these parties suggest a potential reorientation of Germany’s foreign policy and its stance on the Ukraine conflict.
Shift in German political landscape
The AfD and BSW have capitalized on growing public discontent with the current government’s support for Ukraine and aggressive climate policies. Their electoral gains reflect a broader sentiment across Germany and Europe, where voters increasingly reject traditional parties advocating for military involvement and the European “Green New Deal.”
The AfD’s boycott of Zelenskiy’s speech – labeling him as a “war and begging president” – and BSW’s calls for immediate peace negotiations mark a stark departure from the ruling coalition’s policies. This shift could lead to a reevaluation of Germany’s support for Ukraine and its approach to the conflict with Russia.
Potential policy changes
If the AfD and BSW continue to gain influence, we could see several key policy changes:
- Reduction in military support for Ukraine: Both parties advocate for diplomacy over military solutions. This stance might result in reduced arms deliveries and a push for peace negotiations. The SPD has already tried to address these sentiments in the run-up to the European elections, but without success.
- Reassessment of NATO Relations: A shift in Germany’s stance on the Ukraine conflict could strain relations within NATO, particularly with countries favoring a more aggressive approach towards Russia.
- Domestic focus: These parties’ populist policies, including tougher immigration controls and a focus on domestic issues, could reshape Germany’s priorities, potentially leading to a foreign policy as practiced by former US President Donald Trump.
European geopolitical dynamics
Germany’s potential policy shift could have ripple effects across Europe:
- Strengthening of peace-oriented coalitions: As Germany is a key player in the EU, its shift towards peace-oriented policies could encourage other nations to reconsider their stances on the Ukraine conflict.
- Fracturing of EU unity: Divergent approaches to the Ukraine conflict among EU members could weaken the bloc’s unity, complicating collective decision-making and reducing the EU’s influence on the global stage, giving more power to the national governments.
- Increased Russian leverage: A decrease in European military support for Ukraine could embolden Russia, potentially leading it to assume a more powerful posture in the region.
Broader implications
The rise of the AfD and BSW and of figures like Trump and influential voices such as Elon Musk – who recently questioned the extremist label attached to the AfD – signals a broader reevaluation of geopolitical alliances and strategies. This realignment could lead to:
- Redefinition of extremism: Public perception of what constitutes extremist policies may shift, affecting political discourse and alliances.
- New diplomatic efforts: With a stronger mandate for diplomacy, there might be renewed efforts for peace talks, potentially altering the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict.
The political shifts in Germany, as evidenced by the actions of the AfD and BSW, are not just domestic phenomena but part of a larger trend towards geopolitical realignment. These developments could significantly alter Europe’s approach to the Ukraine conflict and reshape the continent’s geopolitical landscape.
As these peace-oriented parties gain traction, the emphasis on diplomatic solutions over military engagement is likely to grow, potentially leading to a new era of European foreign policy.
Diego Fassnacht, CFA, is an international economist and an investment advisor to individual clients and institutions. Prior to his work in finance, he served on the governing council (Deutschlandrat) of the youth organization (JU) of the main German opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union.
Finally we see common sense returning to Europe.
Russia is not a threat to Europe, especially Western Europe. It is stuck in Ukraine, and victory would be a Pyrrhic one. A further war would destroy the already overstretched Russian economy. China, it’s main ally, would also not support any expansion of the war that threatened it’s valuable trading partners in Europe.
Time for common sense to prevail, and stop encouraging Ukraine to destroy itself in a futile war on Europe’s tab. Save Ukrainian lives and EU’s Euros.