Whatever health problems Russian president Vladimir Putin has been suffering, they may have recently grown considerably worse. Putin has canceled three important events in the past week, fueling new speculation about his health.
Firstly, he canceled his annual meeting with the press, an important opportunity for the Kremlin leader to lay out Russia’s domestic and foreign policies. With the war in Ukraine now the most important issue for Russia and closely connected to European security questions, Putin’s missing this opportunity seems significant.
Some writers and officials have contended that Putin did not want to be made uncomfortable in the face of hard questions. But Putin is an experienced politician who sees himself as the personification of Russian values.
He believes the West (meaning mainly the United States) is corrupt and has abandoned traditional, Christian values. Had the press conference come off, Putin could have again pushed his arguments while trying to rally public opinion at home.
Putin also canceled his popular end-of-year program known as “Direct Line.” This program is a means for “average” Russians to speak directly to Putin and bring complaints and problems to him.
Putin has to date used this program effectively, “solving” local problems for its callers, making sure the bureaucracy helps rather than hinders citizens, and from time to time ensuring government monetary, health, education and other benefits and services reach those in most need of assistance.
Because phone calls are screened and the whole routine is heavily stage-managed, Putin would have little to worry about by participating on Direct Line, particularly at a time he could use a popularity boost across the country.
The latest cancellation is even more revealing. Each year since 2011 Putin has participated in an annual amateur ice hockey game, a display that has enabled him to look “human,” to emphasize his virility and demonstrate his sportsmanship. But Putin won’t or can’t participate in this year’s hockey game.
Putin’s physical condition may have declined significantly since his visit to the Kerch bridge on December 5. A Kremlin-supplied video shows Putin driving a Mercedes car across the bridge that day and stopping somewhere in the middle to talk with construction officials about progress in repairing the damaged parts of the bridge.
Although bundled up against foul weather, in the short video clips he appears healthy and walks briskly.
The non-Russian press has reported that Putin fell down some steps at his official residence in Moscow sometime on December 5, the same day he was at the Kerch bridge. Of course, Putin could have gone to the bridge by plane or helicopter and returned to Moscow before evening.
The subsequent cancellations support the thesis that the reports of his fall at his official residence on December 5 may be credible.
On December 16, Henry Kissinger, writing in the Spectator, advised on “How to Avoid Another War.” In the article, Kissinger writes, “The preferred outcome for some is a Russia rendered impotent by the war. I disagree. For all its propensity to violence, Russia has made decisive contributions to the global equilibrium and to the balance of power for over half a millennium. Its historical role should not be degraded.”
Kissinger argues that “the dissolution of Russia or destroying its ability for strategic policy could turn its territory encompassing 11 time zones into a contested vacuum. Its competing societies might decide to settle their disputes by violence. Other countries might seek to expand their claims by force. All these dangers would be compounded by the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons, which make Russia one of the world’s two largest nuclear powers.”
Unfortunately, Kissinger’s article does not suggest a solution that either Russia or Ukraine under current circumstances would accept.
Tellingly, RT, a media outlet financed by the Russian government, reports: “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin was ‘eager to give the article a thorough reading,’ but ‘hasn’t had a chance to do so yet, unfortunately.'” (italics in the original.)
Peskov is clearly hinting that Putin cannot read and comment on the article at present. That would make Peskov’s statement consistent with the three recent event cancellations.
Absent any official statement on Putin’s state of health, we are left with certain press speculation that Putin has cancer, quite possibly colon cancer, and that it has spread. This could mean that Putin has but a short time to conclude the Ukraine war or pick a successor. Whether he can do either, or would be willing to do either, is impossible to know.
This creates a situation even worse than what Kissinger frets about. A leadership crisis in Russia could lead to the use of nuclear weapons as each candidate seeks to prove his virility and strength.
Obviously, a leadership change in Russia raises new dangers for Europe and the United States, not to mention Ukraine. That danger is made worse by the almost complete absence of dialogue between the US and Russia. At a minimum, Washington needs to reassess the situation inside Russia and try to restore communications, no matter how distasteful that might be.
Washington can’t just be an agent provocateur and wash its hands of any responsibility beyond that behavior. Trying to re-establish relations with Russia could help head off a catastrophe and might persuade the Russian leadership clique that there might be a way out of the Ukraine trap they can countenance.
Whether Biden is capable of a peace initiative with Russia is open to question. As for Putin himself, objectively it is looking more and more like he is in trouble and possibly very ill.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebryen