Deal or no deal, Iran war has birthed a new world order

The Iran war may have paused, if not finally ended. Iran has lost its leaders, half of its missile and drone stocks, and a substantial part of its military and civil infrastructure. Thousands of Iranians, a majority of them combatants, have been killed or injured.

The US has lost a few aircraft, more to friendly fire than to enemy action. Some Americans, Israelis and Arabs have been killed. Countries of the Middle East have suffered damage to their water and oil infrastructure. Israel has suffered building damage, deaths and injuries.

The human and material losses sustained by Iran are much greater than those suffered by the rest. Such damage is the natural outcome of any armed conflict.

There are intangible losses on both sides. The fissure between the Trump administration and Europe, already substantial, has widened. NATO members did not extend support to the US and largely remained on the sidelines.

Iran has burned its bridges with many countries of the Middle East, and reconciliation may have to await regime change.

The image that has emerged of the regime is that it absorbed the beating passively, retaliating very little against the US and preferring to strike its Middle Eastern allies instead. Iranians will henceforth have less faith in the regime’s capability to defend the country’s assets.

By vetoing the Hormuz resolution at the UN and openly supplying weapons, explosive precursor chemicals and real-time intelligence to Iran during the war, Russia and China took an undeniably partisan position. They had already lost Syria to Turkey; now they have lost the rest of the Middle East.

The Shia-Sunni divide is now a wider geopolitical one — Sunni with the West, Shia with Russia, China and North Korea. While India retained its commercial ties with Iran and Russia without causing much annoyance to Trump, Pakistan may be questioned by the Saudis in the coming days for ignoring their defense pact and remaining neutral.

It will be interesting to see who says what at the next Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit, if and when it is held.

Russian and Chinese exports of air-defense equipment have taken three hits in quick succession: the brief Indo-Pakistani conflict, the successful capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and now the Iran war have all demonstrated America’s capability of neutralizing these defenses. China has clearly been selling outdated equipment; global buyers will be warier in the future.

The effectiveness of the Hormuz Strait as a chokepoint will worry China about the similar potential of the Strait of Malacca, which straddles Malaysia and Indonesia and through which a substantial portion of its oil imports pass. India is creating an island sentry post near the strait.

Despite the US’s diminished weapons stocks, it appears that the lessons of this war will, for the time being, deter China from moving on Taiwan.

The biggest gainer has been Israel; the US is now visibly watching its back. There are murmurs that Benjamin Netanyahu pushed Trump into this war. Trump is not a pushover, but there was certainly a nudge.

For the duration of the war, Israel had a free hand in Lebanon, inflicting substantial losses on Hezbollah and gaining ground in the south. This will help the Beirut government further marginalize Hezbollah and regain effective control of the country.

Trump has reinforced his image as a bully taking on the Iranian neighborhood thug — a role he clearly relishes. The rescue of crews from a hostile country during the war has enhanced the image of the US; the significant losses suffered during the rescue operation will be remembered as the price the US is willing to pay for each service member.

There were such instances in the Vietnam War, too. The ability of the US war machine to operate far from its homeland and remain largely unmolested is now undisputed. The battlefield synergy of the US and Israeli armed forces has also been fully established.

Middle Eastern countries must now remain aligned with the US, despite popular sentiment to the contrary. Israel, too, will be part of the bandwagon, and the fading Abraham Accords may be back in the limelight.

India, despite its bonhomie with Iran and Russia during the war, has affirmed its presence in the region by opening its doors wide to Israel. Technological and military cooperation between the two nations is widening rapidly. In this situation, distancing India from the US will remain a pipe dream for China.

Russia’s oil gains from a choked Hormuz and elevated prices are somewhat offset by increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities. In this brief war, Ukraine has gained monetarily and in prestige by successfully marketing its low-cost interceptor drones to the Middle East.

Even if China starts offering cheaper clones, the reputational damage to Chinese defense equipment sustained across recent conflicts means Ukraine will remain in this business for the foreseeable future. And while there is no clear winner of the Iran war, the early upshots have already changed the world in many consequential ways.

R.N. Prasher has studied physics, economics and law and served as an Indian Administrative Service officer for 34 years. He writes extensively on geopolitics and published the 2025 book, “Geopolitics: Impact on Energy Transition and Energy Security.”