WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is a real estate man. He knows when he’s being played – and the British are doing their best to play him over some Indian Ocean real estate that’s little known but immensely important to the United States.
The Chagos Archipelago – which includes the atoll of Diego Garcia – has gotten more American attention in the last two weeks than, well, likely ever.
The reason is, the US operates a critical military base on Diego Garcia under a 1966 agreement with Great Britain that remains in effect until 2036.
Diego Garcia is America’s only military base in the Indian Ocean. Its importance is akin to what US bases in Hawaii are for operations in the Pacific. And it is a global “connector” for US power projection.
Despite the existing 1966 treaty with the US, Keir Starmer’s Labor government is trying to ram through a treaty handing Chagos to Mauritius – a country 1200 miles away that has no geographic ties to the Chagos (other countries, including India and Maldives are closer). Nor any ties to the Chagossian people the British uprooted to build the Diego Garcia base.
In spite of their treatment by the British decades back, a large number of Chagossians vocally oppose being handed over to Mauritius – and want to remain British subjects.
Others who oppose the deal on both sides of the Atlantic – including a former deputy commander of US Pacific Command and a former UK defense secretary (people who might know what’s at stake strategically) – are pointing out the dangers of the deal. Among the aspects mentioned:
- Britain plans to pay Mauritius at least some billions of dollars over 99 years to lease the base on Diego Garcia back from Mauritius. But miss one payment and Mauritius can terminate the lease – thus leaving the Americans high and dry.
- China has considerable and growing influence in Mauritius.
- There are 58 other islands in the Chagos archipelago. Expect to see Chinese ‘businessmen’ move to build a “resort” near Diego Garcia. And Chinese fishing boats and “research” vessels will be a constant presence.
- Mauritius has signed the pan-African Palindaba Treaty. It prohibits nuclear weapons in member state territory. US forces using Diego Garcia may sometimes have nuclear weapons. A Mauritian official recently said Mauritius will enforce the treaty, which, at a minimum, permits intrusive inspection of US facilities.
- The US will immediately be subject to debilitating and non-stop legal actions.
- Nobody asked the Chagossians what they want.
- Mauritius’s chief negotiator is Starmer’s old friend – and has taken Mauritian citizenship. A conflict of interest at a minimum. Angling for a cut of the British lease payments maybe?
Starmer argues the treaty guarantees the Americans use of Diego Garcia for “generations.”
He also says it is the best deal available.
How about no deal at all?
It’s hard to know what Trump thinks, and why.
When he first met Starmer a year ago, Trump said thought the deal was fine.
A couple weeks ago he said it was “total stupidity.”
But just the other day, after speaking with Starmer, he suggested it was “the best deal available.”
The UK prime minister also reportedly assured Trump any concerns were unfounded.
Now this is where the president’s real estate instincts ought to kick in.
It’s obvious the deal has problems that could harm Trump (and the US) directly.
But the guy on the other side of the table is saying: ‘Trust me …. It’ll be fine. Don’t worry about it. Sign here …. Sign here …”
One imagines Trump has heard this sort of thing before.
And consider who’s telling him not to worry.
The British government.
Trust Me: Hong Kong Edition
Trump might ask the people of Hong Kong for a reference.
In 1984 the UK and China signed a deal handing Hong Kong back to China in 1997.
Britain assured everyone things would be fine and Hong Kong’s freedoms preserved – and in writing, too. The deal called for Hong Kong to retain its special system for at least 50 years after being turned over to China – or until 2047.
And London insisted this was the best deal the Hong Kongers could get. Considering the state of China in the early 1980’s, it was not the best deal possible.
Soon after taking over, the PRC started the process of snuffing out Hong Kongers’ liberties and turning the zone into just another Chinese city. In 2017 Beijing said the treaty was a dead letter.
So much for the UK’s earlier “Don’t worry, it’ll be fine.”
Coincidentally, Jonathan Powell, who currently is Starmer’s national security advisor, was involved in the negotiations for the Hong Kong handover.
When Starmer was stumbling around China asking for trade scraps the other week, it didn’t seem like he (or Powell) was thinking much about what happened to Hong Kong .
Trust Me: Zimbabwe Edition
And if Trump needs a second reference? Go ask around Zimbabwe.
In late 1979 and early 1980, Her Majasty’s Government pushed a deal to end then-Rhodesia’s civil war.
They assured everyone this was the best deal possible under the circumstances. As if supporting the democratically elected, even if imperfect Muzorewa government was not an option – and, even at the time, a better one.
The British also implied they could (and would) rein in the likely new prime minister, Robert Mugabe, the head of the most powerful of the guerrilla forces.
They had written “safeguards” into the deal and the new constitution.
Prince Charles came, gave a nice speech and went home. Just like he later did in Hong Kong.
Within the next few years Mugabe’s troops murdered 20,000 Matabele tribesmen and started on 37 years of government by murder, theft, corruption and intimidation.
So much for the “Tust us” that one often heard out of London in 1980 – and hears today with the Chagos deal.
One hopes that Trump’s comment about Starmer’s “lovely accent” was tongue in cheek.
But it wouldn’t be the first time an English accent works like a magic flute on an American.
Trump’s Queens (New York) accent may not be as mellifluous as Starmer’s, but Trump has been around enough negotiations and enough desperate, shady characters over the years to recognize a bad deal.
And this is a bad one.
Very bad. Let it go through and it will be Trumps version of Joe Biden’s Bagram giveaway in Afghanistan.