The Trump administration is pushing to build a 55-country critical minerals alliance to coordinate supply and pricing for niche metals vital to technology and defense. The initiative aims to reduce reliance on China, but Beijing remains confident that it will still dominate the market for years to come.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on allies to form a coordinated framework to secure supplies of rare earths and other strategic minerals, claiming some nations used subsidies to undercut Western producers.
He argued that the end of the Cold War in 1991 created a “dangerous delusion” that Western-style liberal democracy was inevitable worldwide.
“The euphoria of this triumph led us to a dangerous delusion: that we had entered ‘the end of history’, that every nation would now be a liberal democracy, that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood, that the rules-based global order, an overused term, would now replace the national interest and that we would now live in a world without borders where everyone became a citizen of the world,” he said.
Rubio said the West embraced a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade even as some countries protected their economies and subsidized companies to undercut Western industries, forcing factory closures, deindustrialization, the loss of working- and middle-class jobs overseas and the transfer of control over critical supply chains to adversaries and rivals.
Rubio urged European countries to join the US in building a Western supply chain for critical minerals that would not be vulnerable to coercion from other powers. He said such cooperation would allow the West to regain control of its industries and supply chains and prosper in sectors set to define the 21st century.
He said the West must form a reinvigorated alliance that does not outsource, constrain or subordinate its power to systems beyond its control and does not depend on others for the critical necessities of its national life.
Throughout his speech, Rubio did not overtly mention China, as he also avoided doing at the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial conference on February 4. Rubio, joined by US Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, hosted representatives from 54 countries and the European Commission, including 43 foreign and other ministers, at the conference in Washington.
“Mining is less glamorous than building computers, cars or airplanes. But building computers and cars and airplanes is also less glamorous than designing them,” Rubio said on February 4. “As we embraced what was new and glamorous, we outsourced what seemed old and unfashionable.”
“And then one day we woke up and we realized we had outsourced our economic security and our very future. We were at the mercy of whoever controlled supply chains for these minerals,” he said.
David Copley, special assistant to the US president and senior director for global supply chains, said at the conference that Washington had been investing in mining projects, stockpiling minerals, protecting domestic mining companies and rebuilding its mining ecosystem.
The US said it signed new bilateral critical minerals frameworks and memorandums of understanding (MOUs), announced US government financing opportunities to support strategic minerals projects and celebrated the launch of the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, or FORGE, a new platform to coordinate allied policy and investment in strategic minerals.
On February 2, President Donald Trump announced Project Vault, led by the chairman of the US Export‑Import Bank (EXIM), to create a domestic reserve of critical minerals. The EXIM board approved a direct loan of up to $10 billion to shield manufacturers from supply shocks and expand US production and processing.
Chinese calm
While Washington pushes to build a rare‑earth alliance, Beijing has so far remained calm. China currently holds about 60% of the global niche-metals market.
“An open, inclusive international trade environment beneficial to all serves the common interests of all countries,” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on February 5. “All parties have the responsibility to play a constructive role in keeping the global industrial and supply chains of critical minerals stable and secure.”
Lin said China opposes any country setting up exclusive blocs to disrupt the international economic and trade order.
Some Chinese commentators said the proposed 55‑country alliance could prove fragile, arguing many participants would be reluctant to give up access to China’s market even if they joined the bloc. They pointed to Argentina as a recent example illustrating the tensions facing countries balancing Western initiatives with economic ties to China.
“Washington had not expected cracks to appear so quickly after the Critical Minerals Ministerial conference on February 4,” a columnist at the state‑owned Shangqiu Times wrote on February 15. “Argentina said its critical minerals agreement signed with the US does not exclude Chinese investment. This punctures the illusion of an exclusive alliance.”
“As a major lithium producer, Argentina counts China as its second‑largest trading partner and a key investor in energy, lithium and infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars,” the writer said, adding that Argentina’s stance reflected pragmatic national interests.
“In today’s deeply interconnected global economy, no country can develop independently of China’s manufacturing ecosystem,” he added. “Resource‑rich countries, especially in Latin America, see stable cooperation with China as a necessity, not a choice. Some European countries have also signaled reluctance to commit to US supply chains that fully bypass China, given the uncertainty surrounding long‑term US financial commitments.”
A Shaanxi‑based columnist writing under the pen name “Starry Night” says South Korea was pursuing a dual‑track strategy despite hosting the alliance discussions.
“As a US ally and chair of the new alliance, South Korea plans to set up a critical minerals hotline with China to ensure continued imports of key raw materials from China,” said the writer. “This reflects a balance between political alignment and economic interests.”
“Market realities make Washington’s strategy difficult,” he says. “China controls about 60% of global rare‑earth mining and more than 90% of processing, while around 70% of US rare‑earth imports in recent years have relied on China. These structural facts cannot be changed by a few meetings or agreements. The US may need 10 to 20 years to build a fully independent supply chain.”
Countercurrent extraction technology
Public data show that China holds about 34% of global rare‑earth reserves but accounts for roughly 92% of output and more than 80% of heavy rare-earth supply. Across mining, smelting and deep processing, China maintains a dominant influence, with over 90% of global smelting and separation capacity concentrated in the country.
A writer at China Mining Club noted China’s strategic advantage lies in midstream separation and refining, a complex system that combines chemical engineering and production management.
“China’s countercurrent extraction technology allows multiple purification cycles at a fraction of overseas costs,” he wrote. “In deep processing, advanced magnet technologies and other innovations have secured a leading global position.”
He said that China holds about 222,000 of the world’s 470,000 rare‑earth patents, describing the technological moat as the result of four to five decades of development that cannot be overcome quickly through US policy announcements.
The latest moves by Washington to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals followed a report submitted to Trump last October by US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, which said processed critical minerals and their derivative products are essential to US national security.
The report highlighted a wide industrial reliance on critical minerals:
- The chemical sector uses lithium, fluorite and bromine for synthesis and industrial processes.
- The communications sector uses gallium, germanium, indium and yttrium in fiber‑optic networks and satellite systems.
- The energy sector relies on cobalt, nickel, uranium, praseodymium and terbium for battery storage, nuclear fuel, generators and electric‑vehicle motors.
The report said that, as of 2024, the US was 100% net-import-reliant for 12 critical minerals and at least 50% net-import-reliant for another 29. It added that even where domestic mining exists, including cobalt and nickel, the country lacks sufficient processing capacity to avoid downstream import dependence.
Trump said on January 14 that he would take necessary measures to adjust rare‑earth imports and eliminate related threats to national security.
Read: China plays rare-earth card on Japan, but keeps it subtle
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Even if this anti-China rare materials bloc manages to mine and process said materials to the required fineness, do you think the US will be distributing said finished products proportionally to all members? Good luck with that ….