Pakistan’s emerging US$13 billion defense export pipeline marks a decisive break from its historical role as a marginal arms exporter. If even partially realized, the shift would reposition Pakistan as a credible midtier defense supplier.
That, in turn, would have implications far beyond the military domain, reshaping the country’s balance of payments, industrial base and long-term economic resilience.
For South Asia and the broader Middle East, Pakistan’s growing defense capabilities signal a subtle but important shift in regional military-industrial dynamics, creating new avenues for diplomatic and economic influence.
The momentum behind this transformation is closely tied to Pakistan’s evolving geopolitical posture. Following recent armed conflict with India and the operational exposure of indigenous platforms during Operation Bunyan-e-Marsoos, Islamabad has leveraged enhanced diplomatic credibility into a series of state-to-state defense engagements in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.
Defense exports, once peripheral to Pakistan’s economic strategy, are now emerging as an extension of foreign policy, embedded within broader strategic partnerships and security cooperation frameworks.
The projected export orders, expected to reach $13 billion — exceeding 80% of Pakistan’s current foreign exchange reserves and nearly 3.7% of GDP — signals a potential structural shift. The question is no longer whether Pakistan can sell defense equipment abroad, but whether it can convert this geopolitical opening into a durable economic and industrial realignment.
Break from the past
Historically, Pakistan’s defense-industrial trajectory was modest, characterized by episodic arms exports. In 2024, arms and ammunition exports totaled just $22.4 million, according to UN Comtrade data.
The current pipeline — spanning fighter aircraft, trainer jets, drones, armored vehicles, naval platforms, and ammunition — marks a transformative leap, signaling a sharp departure from past trends.
This structural shift has several drivers. First is geopolitical timing. Pakistan’s enhanced diplomatic standing following the Operation Bunyan-e-Marsoos in May 2025 and other regional engagements has led it to closer defense collaboration with the countries in Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.
Arms sales are increasingly integrated into broader strategic and security partnerships, strengthening Pakistan’s influence across these regions.
Second is the maturation of indigenous platforms. Major systems, including the JF-17 Thunder Block III, Super Mushshak trainers, K-8 Karakoram jets, armed drones, armored vehicles and naval vessels, have moved beyond trial phases.
These platforms are now marketed as cost-effective alternatives to Western and Russian equipment, providing middle power countries reliable and affordable solutions amid rising global defense spending.
The third driver is institutional capacity. Pakistan’s defense production ecosystem, supported by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT), Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) and Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW), has reached sufficient scale and reliability to handle sustained export orders rather than occasional sales.
Pakistan’s defense exports remain overwhelmingly state-led, conducted through government-to-government frameworks. Analysts, however, anticipate a gradual transition toward a mixed public-private ecosystem.
Private firms are expected to enter initially as subcontractors — supplying components, electronics, software, logistics, and engineering services — before expanding into systems integration and support.
Universities and research institutions will also likely play a growing role in R&D, particularly in avionics, AI-enabled systems, robotics, and advanced materials, following a model closer to that of the United States than traditional state-only defense producers.
This evolution matters because the real economic value of defense exports extends beyond initial sales. Maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), training, upgrades, spare parts and lifecycle support generate recurring dollar revenues that can last decades, creating durable foreign exchange inflows rather than one-time boosts.
Expanding markets, strategic buyers
Interest in Pakistani defense equipment now spans Asia, Africa and the Middle East. The JF-17 Thunder has emerged as the centerpiece, with reported negotiations involving Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Libya, Sudan, Bangladesh, Azerbaijan and others.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering converting financial support into defense procurement potentially valued at $6 billion, while Libya is exploring a broader package approaching $4 billion.
Key factors driving interest include competitive pricing, combat-proven reputation and government flexibility on policy and financing. This combination is particularly attractive to middle power states constrained by budgets or geopolitical considerations.
Beyond fighter jets, Pakistan is also marketing trainer aircraft, light attack aircraft, drones, armored vehicles, naval systems and munitions — a comprehensive portfolio capable of meeting a wide range of operational requirements.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the potential impact is substantial. Pakistan’s exports total about $37 billion annually and are dominated by textiles and agricultural products. Defense exports introduce high-value manufacturing, reducing vulnerability to commodity cycles and price fluctuations.
The projected $13 billion defense export pipeline could generate significant economic gains even if only partially realized. It would strengthen the balance of payments, ease external financing pressures, support the country’s Uraan Pakistan initiative targeting $60 billion in exports, stimulate investment in advanced manufacturing and create skilled jobs.
Simultaneously, defense production generates valuable technology spillovers. Capabilites developed for military use, including precision engineering, avionics, electronics, AI systems and advanced manufacturing capacities, can often be adapted for civilian industries, accelerating broader industrial upgrading.
That said, the $13 billion figure is aspirational rather than guaranteed. Execution depends on geopolitical stability, financing arrangements, production timelines and sustained diplomatic alignment. Key platforms, particularly the JF-17, require Chinese partnership and approval, creating an external dependency that could constrain future sales.
Scaling production to meet multiple international orders simultaneously will also test Pakistan’s institutional capacity and supply chains. Governance, transparency and quality assurance will be critical in converting interest into sustained revenue.
Defense exports as geoeconomic statecraft
Pakistan’s defense export push reflects a rare convergence of foreign policy, industrial capability and macroeconomic necessity. Defense manufacturing has become a tool of geoeconomic statecraft, linking strategic partnerships with export diversification, industrial upgrading and external account stability.
Even partial execution of the envisioned pipeline would mark a qualitative shift in Pakistan’s economic structure, introducing high-value manufacturing into an export base long dominated by low-margin sectors.
The opportunity, however, is conditional. Disciplined execution, transparent governance, production scalability and sustained diplomatic alignment are essential, particularly for joint platforms requiring external approvals, including from China.
If managed with a long-term vision, defense exports could emerge as one of Pakistan’s most consequential strategic levers, reshaping not only its export profile but also its position within the evolving geopolitics and geoeconomics of Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
Saima Afzal is an independent researcher specializing in South Asian security, counterterrorism, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and the Indo-Pacific region. She holds a MPhil in peace and conflict studies from the National Defence University in Islamabad.