Imagine if what happened in Venezuela had happened to the United States.
In the scenario, Washington has a longtime, totally compliant lap dog of a president in some Asian country, and there are American businesses in the place with the country’s main natural resource asset locked up.
And trusted agents from another American vassal nearby are protecting the president and controlling the security services and military, while the US is setting up to deploy its own (and three friends’) militaries for offensive action.
Washington sends its top envoy to meet the president, and less than a day later, Chinese commandos swoop in and grab the president and the missus, and get out with barely a scratch — while shooting up the president’s guards.
And the American air defense systems the president bought didn’t work. Washington’s friend and his wife then showed up in Beijing in shackles and before a Chinese court a day later.
Now that’s humiliating. Maybe not “bum rushed out of Afghanistan” humiliating, but in the ballpark. Almost on cue, parts of the US commentariat downplay the effect of Operation Absolute Resolve. They note China hasn’t given up on its global objectives yet.
Of course it hasn’t. One success against China isn’t enough to overcome the dilemma of its worldwide influence and seemingly inevitable domination created by 40 years of accommodation.
But that doesn’t mean the Maduro operation was unimportant. It rattled the Chinese and raised doubts in Beijing and elsewhere.
American administrations had done little more than complain as China set up another forward operating base well within range of the United States.
And that was too often Washington’s reaction to Chinese inroads in places from the Pacific Islands to the Arctic. Beijing reasonably thought America was in decline while China was ascending.
So the Maduro raid is a good step if it’s part of a coherent long-term effort to roll back China’s regional and global expansion. Other countries may reconsider if China really is the better bet.
It’s not just Venezuela and Beijing’s inability to protect Maduro. Cuba, China’s other longtime outpost near the US, is a shambles and it can see the writing on the wall now that free Venezuelan oil and the money earned from selling it is at risk.
Iran is in trouble – along with a big chunk of China’s oil. Its influence was already much diminished after US and Israeli airstrikes last June.
And despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluster, his four-day “special military operation” is bogged down four years later and cost Russia a few hundred thousand lives and many more wounded. Russia is a pariah and nearly a Chinese vassal, something that the average Russian cannot be happy with.
China hasn’t effectively protected these “allies” or punished the Americans or anyone for pressuring or attacking them.
Demonstrating American ‘will’
More than anything, Operation Absolute Resolve demonstrated the Trump administration’s “will.” And Beijing is constantly assessing and reassessing the “will” of its intended victims.
It’s all very different than Anchorage 2021 when Joe Biden’s secretary of state, national security advisor and Asia policy czar meekly took a dressing down by Xi’s envoys.
Even Trump had to back off on crushing tariffs last year when China played its rare-earth card. Xi thought things were going his way.
Maybe not. Despite the rare-earth chokehold, Trump has still imposed tighter tech export controls, recently cancelled a private sector deal to sell chip technology to China and finalized a US$11 billion arms deal with Taiwan. And he’s reduced Chinese influence in Panama, and has Honduras thinking about re-recognizing Taiwan.
When it comes to Taiwan, Xi is serious. But he’d prefer that the Americans stand clear when the time comes. After the Maduro raid, a short, sharp war to conquer Taiwan might seem less of a sure thing in Beijing, and that matters.
An American with long experience in China working with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) entities told this writer:
If we are talking big boy, full-on, kinetic warfare, China’s citizens will give Xi five to seven days to subdue and raise the flag over Taipei. Anything longer and he is on the fast track to toast.
A major issue for Xi is that the sense of ‘face’ is a major Chinese behavior value that is as strong as ever today and must be managed carefully. The PLA cannot fumble on coordination and management…a skill they have yet to demonstrate they have on a major conflict level.
Chinese citizenry respect for the US military’s ability to break stuff and kill people remains strong. They often make fun of the PLA’s claims they have high battle management skills as well.
Trump’s precision Maduro extraction has reinforced what Chinese citizens already believe is America’s decisive advantage in a major kinetic face-off with China. It has given America ‘big face’ in China, and by reverse, PLA ‘big’ loss of face in China because few Chinese think the PLA could do the same.
This doesn’t mean China will not attack Taiwan, such is the nature of dictatorships when the boss decides he wants to do something. But events in Venezuela injected some uncertainty for Chinese planners and even Chinese leaders.
Fighting to defend American and free-world interests rather than issuing expressions of “profound concern” is long overdue – and it took a real estate magnate from Queens, New York. Keep it up and other free (and less-free) nations might decide the US is the better bet.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He’s a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute and is the author of “When China Attacks: A Warning to America.” Follow him on X at @NewshamGrant