Americans and the other free nations are watching Iran and many are rooting for the Iranians who have risen up against the repressive regime that has ruled harshly since 1979 – and caused no end of trouble for the United States.
But it’s going to take more than protests and American encouragement to bring down the Mullahs. Force is needed.
America (and excepting the Israelis, any friends the US has who want to do more than hide in the corner) need to go after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other parts of the regime’s coercive infrastructure such as the Basij militia.
Evin Prison, Iran’s ‘Bastille’, could also be added to the target list. It looms large in the imagination of every Tehran resident. Use precision munitions to destroy all its walls, any guard barracks, the parking lot – but avoid the cells where folks are being tortured.
This has to go to topple the regime. With luck, people will scramble to free relatives, and cameras will record utter depravity.
And while we’re at it, hit Iran’s oil terminals just enough to shut down exports – the regime’s only real foreign exchange earner. Also go after the IRGC-run drone and missile factories that keep Russia supplied and the rest of the region – including US bases – under threat.
If America doesn’t do this, and fast, the regime will get a handle on things and we’ll be back to square one. Or, actually, worse off since Trump’s threats, “we’re locked and loaded” and explicit and implicit promises of support to the freedom-seeking Iranians, will be seen as hollow.
The people out in the streets in Iran need some real help. Given the realities of the Iranian situation, protests alone aren’t enough.
The regime has an excellent surveillance network and control of the internet, along with an intact and vicious regime security service and militia that is willing to kill tens of thousands, and has already started. The population is unarmed.
The US and Israelis should have done this last June, but we ended the attacks too soon by pulling punches against the regime and the IRGC, Banij militia, et al that keep it in control.
Had the US done so, the mullahs and their regime might already be gone. This is bringing back uncomfortable memories of the immediate aftermath of the Gulf War in 1991, when the US encouraged the Marsh Arabs and the Kurds to revolt against Saddam Hussein.
They did, believing America would help them. Instead they got slaughtered by the thousands once Saddam got his footing – and saw US forces would do nothing.
The window is open in Iran, but it is closing fast. But might this all lead to something even worse in Iran and its beleaguered people?
If you’re old enough to have seen the Iranian situation from the start and watched it over the last four decades, one fairly asks: “How much worse could it be? I’ll take my chances.”
And the Iranians standing up against the regime appear to think the same and should be given the outside support they deserve and need.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He’s a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute and is the author of “When China Attacks: A Warning to America.” Follow him on X at @NewshamGrant