China’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, extending a downturn that has coincided with weaker economic conditions and falling birth rates. The continued contraction comes as job prospects remain uncertain for many young people and marriage rates stay subdued, adding pressure to China’s long-term growth outlook and social support systems.
In 2025, the number of births in China totaled 7.92 million while deaths reached 11.31 million, resulting in a net population decline of 3.39 million and leaving the country with a year-end population of about 1.405 billion, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The contraction points to a shrinking workforce, slower growth in contributions to the national pension fund and rising healthcare and elder-care costs as the population ages.
The size of China’s core working-age population continues to shrink. Data showed that people aged 16 to 59 accounted for 60.6% of the population in 2025, down from 60.9% a year earlier, with the total in this age group falling by about 6.62 million year on year. The decline underscores the structural challenge facing policymakers as labor supply tightens despite gains in education, skills and productivity.
Wang Pingping, director of the Department of Population and Employment Statistics at the NBS, sought to play down the immediate impact, saying China’s population quality and demography are improving.
“By the end of 2025, the population aged 16 to 59 stood at 851 million,” Wang said. “People aged 60 and above totaled 323 million. Many aged 60 to 64 are healthy and willing to remain economically active. Using international definitions, China’s population aged 15 to 64 reached 968 million, or 68.9% of the total.”
“Average schooling among those aged 16 to 59 reached 11.3 years in 2025,” she said, adding that life expectancy rose to 79 years in 2024 and the number of research and development personnel climbed to 10.8 million. “China is shifting from a quantity-based workforce to a quality-based talent base.”
“China’s population still exceeds the combined population of existing developed countries, providing an ultra-large market with strong production and consumption potential,” she said.
She added that China’s urbanization and policy support will help cushion demographic pressures. At the end of 2025, China’s urban population reached 954 million, lifting the urbanization rate to 67.9%. She said authorities are expanding childcare subsidies, childcare services and education supply to support families.
Northeastern China
Provincial-level population statistics for 2025 have yet to be released, but figures for 2024, announced last October, still provide a clear picture of regional demographic trends.
In the three northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang, natural population growth rates were among the weakest nationwide last year, with deaths far exceeding births. Liaoning (-5.3%) and Heilongjiang (-6.3%) both recorded some of the country’s steepest natural declines, while Jilin (-4.9%) continued to see a rapid contraction driven by low fertility, an aging population and sustained out-migration of younger workers.
Negative natural population growth is no longer confined to the rust belt. Several major provinces and cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, also reported natural declines in 2024, reflecting delayed marriage, falling fertility rates and rising living costs in China’s most developed urban centers.
By contrast, some southern provinces continued to record relatively higher birth rates. Guangdong, China’s most populous province, stood out in 2024 thanks to its large migrant population, younger demographic profile and a stronger tradition of family formation, even as its natural growth rate continued to slow.
Several less-developed western provinces also posted comparatively strong population growth in 2024. Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou and Qinghai stood out for positive natural growth, supported by higher fertility norms and younger age structures.
“From its population peak in 2010, the Northeast region lost 14.56 million people in 14 years,” says Gao Jian, a Zhejiang-based columnist. “That is equivalent to about 1.4 Hainan provinces, or more than, for example, the combined populations of major cities Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Suzhou.”
He adds: “What is even more sobering is that this decline includes cities that were once the pride of the region, such as Shenyang and Dalian. The total population of northeastern China has now fallen back to levels last seen in the 1980s.”
He points out that Heilongjiang’s birth rate stood at just 2.92 per thousand in 2023, the lowest in China and even lower than Japan and South Korea.
“Heilongjiang shoulders national responsibilities for food and energy security, but its pillar industries, such as petrochemicals, energy, equipment manufacturing and food processing, are becoming less attractive to young workers,” he says. “While the province has a foothold in high-tech sectors such as aviation manufacturing and biomedicine, the scale is still too small with limited job creation.”
Preferences on marriage
China’s persistently low birth rate is increasingly linked to a loss of interest in marriage among young people, as economic pressure and uncertain prospects reshape life choices, said some analysts.
In China, the pool of eligible marriage partners is shrinking rapidly. Data show that people aged 20 to 39, the core marriage-age cohort, accounted for 26.93% of the population in 2024, down from 31.49% a decade earlier, while the absolute size of this group fell by more than 60 million over the decade.
The gender imbalance remains pronounced, with 17.52 million more men than women in this age group in 2024, equivalent to about 110 men for every 100 women, a gap that is even wider in rural areas (about two men for one woman), as better-educated women tend to stay in cities and seek higher-income partners, a Shandong-based columnist says.
For many young Chinese men, marriage has become financially daunting rather than socially expected. Beyond everyday living costs, they are often expected to provide a large betrothal gift that can run into the hundreds of thousands of yuan, along with an apartment and a car, at a time when wages are stagnating and job security is weakening.
In smaller cities and rural areas, these pressures have pushed marriage out of reach for many, a Henan-based writer says. Some young men have delayed marriage indefinitely or opted out altogether, embracing a “tang ping” (lying flat) or low-desire lifestyle. In recent years, others have adopted a “bai lan” (let it rot) mindset, reflecting resignation and acceptance of failure amid prolonged economic frustration.
Together, these pressures have coincided with a decade-long decline in marriage registrations. However, 2025 recorded an estimated 8.5% rebound, with 5.152 million couples registering marriages in the first three quarters following the launch of a nationwide registration system. Commentators caution that the rise is likely temporary, as economic strain and income insecurity continue to weigh on marriage decisions.
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