Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s fixer, has entered the Iran mess and is now talking to Iran’s leaders. This is a very bad sign for the Iranian revolution, because Witkoff’s approach is to fix “problems.” The Iranian revolution is not a problem. It is an unprecedented opportunity. By deflecting any US response to the ongoing crisis, whether intentionally or not, Witkoff could hand the mullahs a victory against the people of Iran.
Witkoff, as we know, has been Trump’s diplomatic fixer, starting with Gaza (which is still unsettled and in limbo) and Ukraine. Credit to him for getting the hostages, alive and dead, freed.
Witkoff’s intervention in Ukraine, most recently led to the Paris Accord. Witkoff wanted to sign it but was told not to do so at the last minute after either President Trump or Marco Rubio, perhaps both, saw the accord as undermining Trump’s Alaska agreement with Vladimir Putin.
Even with Washington’s pushback, Witkoff warmly endorsed the Paris deal, and pledged the US would support it by supplying the most recent coalition of the willing (mainly the UK and France) with front-line intelligence support for their planned military deployment on Ukrainian territory.
Witkoff’s Ukraine intervention shocked the Russians. Putin regarded it as confrontational, and as a rejection of each and every Russian objective in Ukraine. It also amounted to an implicit rejection of the US-Russia strategic dialogue, one that included nuclear security agreements and various economic incentives and deals.
Witkoff trashed all of that, allegedly frustrated with the Russians when actually it was the Ukrainians and Europeans who refused any serious dialog with Russia, even though some European leaders, Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, and Georgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy, openly called for meeting with Russia to try and sort out Ukraine and address other matters impacting European security.
It is noteworthy that both Merz and Meloni, while attending the Paris meetings, refused to sign the accord or to agree to send troops to Ukraine.
Witkoff’s turnabout on Ukraine may have reflected Trump’s frustration in not getting a deal, or there may have been other reasons unknown to us. Now Witkoff has turned his attention to Iran, most likely at Trump’s urging after the White House got pleading calls from Iran.
It seems Witkoff is engaging with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The grandson of an Iranian rug merchant, Araghchi got his PhD in political thought from Kent University in the UK. He speaks fluent English.
Araghchi is offering some sort of nuclear deal if the US stays out of Iran and stops supporting the revolutionaries. Putting aside the likelihood that, no matter what the deal, Iran will cheat its way around it, the more important point is that a nuclear deal is far from the most important issue – whether for the US, for the people of the surrounding Middle East or for the Iranians who are revolting against the repressive mullah-run regime.
Many believe that the root of the turmoil in the Middle East traces directly to Iran. Gaza would never have happened had Iran not planned the attack on Israel, shipped weapons to Hamas or provided extensive training and military and intelligence support to Hamas.
The same is true in Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (Hezbollah, ISIS), Iraq (Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib al-Imam Ali and Badr Organization) and many others. Iran’s goal is the destruction of Israel and forcing the US out of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. It sponsors terrorist operations, supplies weapons (including drones and rockets), conducts military and intelligence training, provides operatives and offers intelligence to America’s adversaries.
There is no sign Witkoff is discussing any of Iran’s trouble-making in the region, or its activities beyond the Middle East, for example in Europe, North America, Africa, South America and Asia. From what we know, the discussions are limited and follow offers from the Iranian side.
Witkoff’s bargaining could confuse Trump, causing him and his administration to misunderstand what really is at stake in Iran’s revolution.
The US does not have a great track record. America has deserted friends and allies many times, and has made promises that were not kept. Afghanistan is a great example, as are Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos
The US, at Yalta, sold out Eastern Europe. Trying to set things back on a positive track, Dwight Eisenhower, as a candidate for president and later as president, said the US would support revolutions against the then-Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.
Yet when Hungary revolted in 1956, the US did not help and Khrushchev sent in the Russian army to suppress the Hungarian revolution, leading to thousands getting killed on the streets, or executed after the revolt was crushed, and hundreds of thousands fleeing Hungary.
Iran wants a free hand to kill everyone opposing the regime. Thousands have already died, and the regime announced it will start hanging the freedom fighters very soon – if it has not already started.
There is no reason to bargain with the mullahs or with their thugs.
Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense. This article originally appeared in his newsletter Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.
Witkoff is in over his head. All he knows about Iran is its oil. The US started this mess when it sponsored the “revolution” which deposed Mohamed Mosadegh (sp).US intervention will only make things worse.
1956. Move on
Oh come off it, Bryen – this “Iran Revolution” is nothing more than a foreign-stoked uprising following the well worn Kermit Roosevelt playbook of 1953. You know this damn well.
And as to your line “The US, at Yalta, sold out Eastern Europe” — just WTF was the US supposed to do — The Soviets did all the heavy lifting against the nazis, of course they expected a huge “buffer zone”. Would you have preferred “Operation Unthinkable”?
Of course he does.
This is HK or Belarus. HK 2019 was about saying “China is authoritarian” loudly ahead of Jan 2020 Taiwan elections.
Belarus 2021 was the same for Russia to Europe and Ukraine to prepare them for the UKrainian announced plans to attack Donbas and Crimea.
In all 3 cases the nascent regime change teams were burnt creating initial fireworks but with no deep support.
So what is Iran 2026 really about? Stephen??
Because the crazy cleric regime is very popular ?
Its not like the Zionist hot take isn’t already platsered all over the low IQ Western lame-stream media already.
They want to install a monarchy in Iran.
I’m sorry but this regime change attempt is going to fizzle out like Operation Rising Lion. The currency attack against the Rial was orchestrated by the West as were these protests.
Pretending to care about Iranians – spare us the fluff. The West cares only for Israel, nobody else.
Is that what you said about Syria ?
When Maduro was overthrown, I said no prizes for guessing what country was next. I thought Iran was most the likely. Sky-god pilotry is no way to run a country.
Agent Orange is very predictable, you win no prizes. He is MIGA all the way through.
Syria, Hez(no)bollox, Hamas, Syria, Venezuela and now Iran & Cuba
Russ, China and NK left
Yes, very predictable.
He was kidnapped, not overthrown.
His deputy is still in charge.
And doing what Taco tells her !