The idea of offering unilateral US security guarantees to Ukraine is an appalling idea that risks war with Russia. It means the US is willing to go to war to defend Ukraine, and gives the Ukrainians a license to stir up trouble, instigate provocations and drag America into a confrontation with Russia.
Such a guarantee imperils Europe. If the US sends troops to Ukraine, the Russians will counterattack and their forces won’t simply focus on Ukraine. Russia will attack the entire NATO edifice. A new world war will start, and the consequences in lives and property will make Ukraine look like small potatoes.
Every study (including numerous simulations) shows that a war in Europe would be devastating, kill millions and lead to the rapid defeat of NATO forces. NATO is not prepared, nor is the US on its own.
The US is not able to produce enough needed weapons, its army in a peer-to-peer conflict is completely untested and it would have to support an expeditionary force thousands of miles from home in an intense large-scale conflict.
Europe’s territory is poorly defended, European armies are under-staffed, Europe’s air defenses are thin to non-existent and its stockpile of weapons is pathetically small. Europe is no match for Russia, whose war machine is fully industrialized.
The only remaining cog in the Russian machinery is full mobilization, but if Ukraine is allowed to start a world war, Russia will massively upscale its army.
Worse still, if an Article 5-like security deal is actually invoked, it will open the US to a confrontation in the Pacific as China won’t hesitate to move if the US is bogged down in Ukraine and Europe.
America’s ability to defend Taiwan will be compromised. North Korea could attack as well, destabilizing the Korean peninsula and risking US forces stationed there. Even Japan may find itself in great peril and can expect the loss of strategic islands, or much more.
When you think about it, the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine is only a ploy to erase America’s strategic independence.
This is exactly the same issue that scuttled the 1919 Versailles Treaty ratification in the US Senate. Instead of Congress being the sole decision-maker deciding if the US should go to war, the Versailles Treaty would have transferred that Constitutional responsibility to the new League of Nations.
An Article 5 like US undertaking for Ukraine would also remove Congress from responsibility for declaring war.
NATO’s Article 5 is a little different. Should NATO actually invoke Article 5, the member states will need to decide on what action each individually will take in response. A Ukraine security guarantee takes away flexibility and creates an unprecedented legal obligation to go to war.
If this is what is intended, and it seems to be so, it is a dreadful idea that threatens America’s Constitution even more than the rejected Versailles Treaty. Those negotiating on the US behalf, most recently in Berlin, Germany, simply don’t appear to understand what they are offering to Ukraine and the immense risks such an offer entails.
US President Donald Trump keeps insisting that the Ukraine war is not his war and he wants to stay out of the conflict (although, quite honestly, the rhetoric does not match the reality).
An Article 5-like security guarantee makes the Ukraine war America’s war. It is no surprise this is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal: drive the Americans into the conflict and trap them into going to war against Russia.
Nothing could be a worse and more dangerous outcome. Trump needs to think about the implications of the offer made in Berlin. It would be beneficial to take it off the table before it is too late.
Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense and special correspondent at Asia Times. This article was first published on his newsletter Weapons and Strategy and is republished with permisson.
The entire piece of junk proposal put together by the latest Euro/Ukie/US circle jerk is an irrelevant non-starter. Since when does the losing party get to dictate terms? The Great Trumpkin should have cut off the pipeline to the green goblin on day one. It is now HIS war.
Yes security guarantees are clearly impossible for either US or Russia to accept.
So what are the motives of those raising them.
For EU it is simply delay – the longer the capitulation can be delayed the more chance of another election without having to face up to the damage they have done. Unlike Trump none of them can convincingly blame the previous guy.
For the EU the more ridiculous the initial starting point for negotiation the better.
Team Trump just want to appear peacemakers at the moment Kiev collapses – this could be in the next few weeks – and Trump will say “if only EU/Zelensky had listened I could have had a deal”. If Trump really wanted a deal he’d dig out some long retired diplomats and have them push for a sensible starting point.
Security – so if no Americans in Ukraine (and certainly no Europeans – they’d just be targeted on day one) what can be done. The challenge is to convince Russia that nato backed nazis won’t be shelling Russian speaking civilians in a few months time again.
Frankly the solution is obvious – split Ukraine. A chunk to Hungary would be fine – Hungary would police that part and so it would not be a threat to Russia.
And a chunk to Poland – which might want to send missiles at E Ukraine but Russia could legitimately land hypersonics in Warsaw if it did. And likely a chunk to Romania.
(I know there are those who argue that Ukraine’s inteegrity is the heart of the matter. Let them fund Zelensky or shut up.)
That would leave a much smaller rump Ukraine. Free of Lvov (the one oblast which backed Poroshenko in 2019 against Zelensky’s Dove manifesto – most Ukrainians never wanted conflict with Russia but the Zelensky the voted for failed to turn up). It needs to be strongly pro-Russia and ani-Nato because otherwise no Ukrainian under 65 will dare to return there for fear of this
Busification.org
People still do not understand all these “negotiations” are theater. Its all fake. Chump is all about appearances and headlines. He want to be “seen” as a peacemaker and needs a way out of the war, so he can start another one. The Norwegians gave Machado their worthless Nobel “peace” prize so Chump can feel good about stealing Venezuelan oil and preparing for a war in Latin America. He has already declared war against Venezuela.
When was the last time the US lived through a full pesidential term without war? Just think about that for a moment.
Nato backed Nzis? What planet are you on? More Ukr’s fought for the Red Army.
But now the Ukr’s really do hate the Russ, just like the ex Warsaw Pact
Good job Vlad
Why would there be any “Article 5” guarantees for a non-NATO and non-EU failed state? Western imbecile elites need to pull their heads out of their backsides.
Russ is a failed state, heading the same way as Pakman
The problem is your Western governments, they are dumbing you down. Run by infantile fools. You inherit their broken mentality
The sensible route is a negotiated settlement to the war. Outside of Ukraine, Russia has no interest in invading Eastern Europe. Even a simpleton can see that the European Union is mainly interested in resources acquisition, and that is what informs the matter.
The EU and Britain see the war as existential to their economies. Without the war, their economies would sink and they would no longer get the gift that keeps on giving…them the “emergency powers” needed to consolidate power into a Fourth Reich, trample on freedom and human rights and annul elections in Moldova and Romania when the results do not suit them. This is why these European dogs are pushing for a forever war. They have taken a page from the American Neocon book. If the war ends, the the EU and NATO are going to collapse. They derive an existence from hating Russia like Israel derives an existence from hating Palestinians.
Bonkers. EU relies on USA for their defense. They have no war industries.
And once again you head on down the 4by2 rabbit hole.
Mopedo has warped your brain
Bryen is a Russian agent. No one takes him seriously outside of this website.
Filed under “Anybody I disagree with is a Russian agent”. You should stick with the British Bullsh*t Corporation instead. Ukraine is apparently “winning” in that echo chamber
The Brit BC that Taco is litigating against because they lied.
The B B C that had a son of a Hamas operative in a doco?
If only. No he is clearly a strong believer in what the US claims, albeit one who follows through logically from what it means.
Go back and look at his articles on this conflict — he was pretty conventionally Russophobic. He is now picking up the clue phone. Would that the rest of the Beltway Bandits did the same.