China, look at the numbers: Japan threatens nobody

Ever since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi‘s matter-of-fact comment that, if China attacks Taiwan, Japan might have to get involved, Beijing has been railing nonstop about resurging Japanese militarism.

Japanese militarism?

As is usually the case when the Chinese Communist Party says something, take the opposite and you’ll likely have the truth.

Japan is a threat to nobody.

It has near-zero strategic “power projection” capability.

Assuming it arrived unscathed, the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) could land its entire Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (all 3,000 of them) on the coast near Shanghai – and nobody would notice.

The JSDF missed recruitment targets by 50% a couple of years ago. It routinely misses recruitment goals by 20-25% – and has done so for years. 

It’s half the size it needs to be to carry out all required missions, including defending Japan itself against China, Russia and North Korea.

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force escort ship, a “sort of” aircraft carrier, “JS Kaga.”

The newly commissioned Chinese military aircraft carrier “Fujian” in Sanya, Hainan Province. Photo: Xinhua

How does the JSDF match up with the People’s Liberation Army?

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, aka the Japanese navy, has about 60 surface combatant ships and 24 submarines. Meanwhile, the PLA Navy (PLAN) has over 350 ships and is rapidly building more. It will have over 400 ships before long. As well, the PLAN has over 60 submarines, including a dozen nuclear subs.  

Aircraft carriers?

China is in a different league than Japan.

The Japanese navy has two”sort of” carriers capable of handling F-35B fighters. However, they are not comparable to a US Navy carrier.

China’s PLAN has three carriers, with more on the way, and is mirroring US carrier capabilities.

The China Coast Guard similarly outmatches the Japan Coast Guard numbers-wise. Moreover, many CCG ships are built for fighting other ships – not patrolling to stop illegal fishing, like the Japanese ones.

And there’s more at sea that Japan can’t match.

A flotilla of Chinese maritime militia “fishing” vessels aggressively entered waters near Senkaku Islands (September 2020)

China’s maritime militia is armed and double-hulled (for ramming). And it’s part of the People’s Armed Police, adding to China’s military heft.

Then there is China’s vast fishing fleet, which has been used to swarm Japanese maritime territory ー–sending a message to Tokyo: “Anytime we want, we can overwhelm you.”

The Japan Air Self-Defense Force is at most one-third the size of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force in terms of aircraft numbers. And, no, technology and pilot skill do not make up the difference.

The Chinese have long-range bombers that are also nuclear-capable. Japan has neither bombers nor nukes.

Ground forces: The Japan Ground Self-Defense Force has 150,000 troops. The People’s Liberation Army: about 965,000 ground troops. 

Consider how the two nations’ militaries are being employed

China’s non-stop military operations around Taiwan are surrounding the island. They could launch an actual attack with little notice, or none at all.

Aerial photograph of a mammoth China Coast Guard vessel in the South China Sea. Photo: Philippine Coast Guard

And the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has taken de facto control of the South China Sea – international waters bigger than the Mediterranean Sea. China has built artificial island military bases to lock down control. Domestic Chinese law declares the South China Sea to be China’s own.

Chinese naval, coast guard, and paramilitary ships encroach daily in Philippine territory and harass Philippine boats, military and civilian. The Chinese have occupied the Philippines’ Scarborough Shoal since 2012.

The China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia squeeze a Philippine vessel (center front). Published on the Chinese Southern Command’s official WeChat account on June 19, 2024.

And Japan is in the crosshairs, too. The China Coast Guard (with PLAN over the horizon) and the Chinese fishing fleet are a year-round presence around Japan’s Senkaku Islands – which China claims.

Meanwhile, the Japan Coast Guard and navy are overstretched just covering the Senkakus.

Beijing is also openly challenging Japan’s ownership of the entire Ryukyu Island chain.

Nukes and missiles?

PRC mouthpieces are once again threatening nuclear strikes on Japan, using China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.

Japanese nukes? None. It’s counting on American nukes.

China’s missile and rocket force dwarfs whatever Japan can muster.

Japan’s recent push to acquire long-range missiles and develop hypersonic weapons, are stopgap and overdue efforts to strengthen a dangerously weak defense.

Chinese newspapers criticize Prime Minister Takaichi, Beijing, November 18. Photo: ©Sankei / Shohei Mitsuka

Who is threatening whom?

Verbal threats against Japan occur daily in the Chinese media.

Nobody in Japan has ever talked about attacking China, or anyone else. In fact, Japan has bent over backwards for decades to accommodate the PRC, including giving handsome foreign aid.

With some effort – both new hardware and better “jointness” between JSDF services and with closer operational linkages with US forces – Japan might build a solid, if localized, defense. And it can play an integral role in an overall US-led regional defense strategy, including support for Taiwan.

If that’s a threat to the Chinese Communist Party, so be it.

Today’s Japan is not 1930s Japan

Since its defeat in 1945, Japan has acted as a humane, responsible democratic nation that does much good globally.

But what about Chinese claims that Asian nations are afraid of Japan?

Hardly. Singapore’s Prime Minister said recently that Southeast Asians want Japan to play a bigger role in the region – including on the security front.

Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand and India, among others, already get along well with Japan and have military ties. Chinese and South Korean tourists flock to Japan.

Meanwhile, China is mentally returning to the psychology of the Cultural Revolution. And Xi Jinping is even talking up the Korean War – as a glorious era.

So, Japan as a military threat?

Replace “Japan” with “China” and you’ll have it right.

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America. This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward. It is republished with permission.