How Vietnam could ease Trump’s China soybean pain

On October 8, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed that Hanoi and Washington are negotiating the 20% reciprocal tariffs and 40% transshipped product levy imposed on Vietnamese imports.

The talks come as the US intensifies its protectionist measures against Asian economies that have trade deficits with the US and as Donald Trump seeks a political win with American farmers, a key voting bloc ahead of midterm elections in 2026.

Meanwhile, American soybeans are piling up unsold across the Midwest. For Trump, selling them abroad isn’t just a trade goal; it’s a political necessity amid signs his tariff policy is hurting US farmers.

Few commodities are as politically charged as soybeans in America. They underpin the economies of swing states like Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, whose farmers helped elect Trump in 2016 and 2024, and whose frustration cost him in 2020.

When China retaliated against Trump’s tariffs in 2018 by halting soybean imports, millions of tons of crops rotted in silos, forcing Washington to spend billions in farm bailouts. That crisis revealed a simple truth: soybeans are America’s silent political barometer.

In 2025, Beijing appears ready to use the same tactic, curbing US soybean imports as leverage amid tense trade negotiations.

Trump, eager to avoid a repeat of 2018, is now weighing a $10 billion rescue plan for farmers. But the better political solution would be to find new buyers, not more farm subsidies. And that’s where Vietnam quietly enters the frame.

Quiet Vietnam kingmaker

According to data from both the US Department of Agriculture and Vietnam’s customs office, Vietnam imports around 8 million tons of soybeans annually, largely from Brazil and Argentina. That makes it one of Asia’s largest soybean consumers and a potentially crucial outlet for American exports that were grown for Chinese markets.

By redirecting even part of its soybean imports toward the US, Vietnam could turn a routine trade decision into a strategic diplomatic gesture. Such a move would:

• Narrow Vietnam’s $123 billion trade surplus with the US, which Washington views as a structural imbalance.
• Ease tariff pressures by showing goodwill without conceding on sovereignty or industrial policy.
• Stabilize domestic feed supply chains, which face rising costs due to South American climate shocks and logistics disruptions.

Crucially, Vietnam can do all this through private companies, not state procurement. Major feed producers like CP Vietnam, GreenFeed, Masan Feed and Dabaco could handle imports directly, keeping the government at arm’s length while still creating measurable benefits for US agriculture.

For Washington, a surge in soybean exports to Vietnam would look like a geopolitical and trade war win, pitched as “America’s farmers are selling again.”

But here lies the subtle risk: Beijing sees soybeans as strategic leverage, not mere food. Since the 2000s, China has used its massive soybean imports to influence global trade dynamics by rewarding partners and punishing adversaries.

If Vietnam were to suddenly buy large volumes of American soybeans, Beijing might interpret it as a symbolic realignment toward Washington. And with China still dominating Vietnam’s upstream supply chains, from machinery to fertilizers, the cost of miscalculation could be high.

Yet, staying neutral also carries a price. Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US continues to invite scrutiny in Washington, delaying its long-sought recognition as a “market economy” under WTO norms. Hanoi’s challenge, therefore, is to turn soybean imports into a balancing act, not a provocation.

Walking the tightrope

Vietnam’s best move is not to “defy” China, but to master ambiguity, a skill Hanoi has honed for decades.

1. Keep the optics economic, not political.
   Frame US soybean purchases as a market-driven diversification strategy responding to supply risks, not as geopolitical signaling.
2. Let private firms lead. Contracts signed by Vietnamese agribusinesses rather than the state would help depoliticize trade flows.
3. Encourage joint ventures. Invite American agribusiness investment in soybean processing and feed mills inside Vietnam, turning trade into FDI cooperation and creating vested interests on both sides.
4. Maintain quiet diplomacy with Beijing. Make clear that the goal is food security, not alignment politics. Vietnam’s history of pragmatic diplomacy allows it to pursue multiple partnerships while avoiding open confrontation.

This strategy doesn’t need to “cross” China — it simply needs to navigate smartly between the two giants.

On today’s trade chessboard, a single soybean carries three meanings: For the US, it’s a ballot in the Midwest; for China, it’s a bargaining chip in global power politics; and for Vietnam, it could become a subtle instrument of economic diplomacy, balancing deficits, avoiding tariffs and reinforcing strategic autonomy.

Trade wars, by definition, create winners and losers. But those who understand the timing and symbolism of a well-placed economic gesture can quietly shift the rules of the game. For Vietnam, that gesture may simply be a shipload of American soybeans, sailing into Vietnam not just for commerce but for economic leverage.

Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh is a Vietnamese writer and human rights commentator based in Texas, USA. She is the founder of WEHEAR, an independent initiative focusing on Southeast Asian politics, human rights and economic transparency.