The likely upshots of Russia’s Poland drone incursion

NATO forces directly intercepted Russian drones for the first time since the special operation began after some of them veered into Poland earlier this week, with this unprecedented incident arguably being due to NATO jamming, as explained here.

Some commentators on both sides think that this might lead to World War III, but that’s a far-fetched scenario since NATO isn’t expected to respond kinetically by bombing Russia (even just Kaliningrad) and/or Belarus. The five most likely outcomes are more likely:

* “EU defense line” becomes a “drone wall”

The “Baltic Defense Line” and Poland’s “East Shield”, which are collectively known as the “EU Defense Line” that functions as the new Iron Curtain, might soon be outfitted with cutting-edge anti-drone capabilities, as suggested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

She spoke about creating an “Eastern Flank Watch” that would also become a “drone wall”, which the Baltic States have wanted for a while, and it makes sense to expand this program in both directions to Poland and Finland.

* Poland expands its military influence in the Baltics

As the most populous and prosperous formerly communist country in Central Europe, which has already built the third-largest army in NATO, Poland could easily expand its military influence over the region on the pretext of “defending against Russia.”

New President Karol Nawrocki implied over the summer that the “Three Seas Initiative” would be the means towards this end and even declared during his latest trip to Lithuania that “we are responsible for the entire region of Central Europe, including the Baltic States.”

* The US expands its military presence in Poland

Poland has been asking for more US troops for years, and US President Donald Trump seemed willing to satisfy this request when he said during Nawrocki’s visit last month that “We’ll put more there if they want.”

That might be what he had in mind when he tweeted “Here we go!” on Wednesday. As was assessed earlier this year, “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner” and “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5”, so this is within the realm of possibility.

* Poland hosts elements of a NATO Sky Shield…

Less likely but nonetheless still possible is that Poland hosts elements of a NATO Sky Shield, whether for protecting the bloc’s eastern flank and/or extending this umbrella into Western Ukraine, the latter of which aligns with a proposed security guarantee.

The 10,000 US troops in Poland might reassure it that Russia would be deterred from deliberately targeting these assets, not to mention if even more are deployed, but public opinion might keep this shield centered on Poland instead of shared with Ukraine.

* …but that’s as far as its response will go

Regardless of whatever happens with the aforesaid scenario, Poland won’t go any further by deploying troops to Ukraine, for example, which Nawrocki has ruled out. 

Despite occasional speculation, Poland has no revanchist plans since it doesn’t want to be responsible for millions of ultra-nationalist Ukrainians, who could also wage a terrorist insurgency against its troops. It’s already exploring the lease of land and ports to recoup its aid and even profit, so there’s no need to take such risks, including a hot war with Russia.

All in all, Poland is expected to avoid the trap of mission creep after last week’s incident, having already concluded some time ago that the potential benefits of escalating its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict further than it already has aren’t worth the risks.

The most that Poland is expected to do is to host elements of a NATO Sky Shield, but its extension into Ukraine during wartime or afterwards would likely only happen if the US gives Poland security guarantees, which Trump doesn’t seem interested in.

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.