Poland border closure choking China-EU rail trade

Poland has rejected China’s request to reopen its border with Belarus after a series of Russian drone incursions, increasing political tensions between China and the European Union.

The latest measures, including the closure of the vital Małaszewicze crossing used by the China-Europe Railway Express, immediately disrupted a key artery in Sino-European trade and signaled Warsaw’s hardening security posture. 

The Polish government’s decision followed an incident on September 9, in which more than 20 unmanned aerial vehicles from Belarus and Russia entered Poland’s airspace. Moscow and Minsk denied hostile intent, but Warsaw described the flights as provocations and clear violations of its sovereignty.

In a meeting with Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi failed to persuade Poland to reopen its border with Belarus.

Chinese state media and several commentators swiftly criticized Poland’s decision, warning that the disruption threatens billions of euros worth of China-EU trade. Some suggested NATO influence lay behind Warsaw’s stance, claiming the United States could benefit economically from shifting logistics away from Eurasian rail corridors.

“Who is playing with the geopolitical powder keg and whose lifeline is being put at risk?” a Henan-based columnist writing under the pseudonym “Cuadrado” asks in his article.

“This incident is rooted in complex geopolitical rivalries,” he writes. “Russia views Eastern Europe as a strategic buffer, while NATO’s continuous expansion, including plans to boost its rapid reaction force to 300,000 troops and the accession of Sweden and Finland, has undeniably compressed Russia’s strategic space.”

In this tense and confrontational atmosphere, even minor military actions may be overinterpreted as both sides react out of security fears or US containment strategies, Cuadrado writes.

He adds that NATO’s military build-up in Eastern Europe is meant to deter Russia and reassure its eastern members; at the same time, the US may exploit the situation to strengthen its leadership and gain strategic benefits.

“Poland’s closure of the border crossings has stranded China-Europe Railway Express trains,” a columnist called Xiangjiangnan says in an article published by Dot Dot News, an online media controlled by the state‑owned Hong Kong Ta Kung Wen Wei Media Group.

“The EU-China Chamber of Commerce, representing more than 1,600 companies, has warned of supply‑chain disruption risks that will push up inflation in major EU economies,” he writes. “If this drags on, Polish and EU firms will go bankrupt, one after another.”

“As an EU member, Poland is acting for ‘its own self‑interest’ and making other EU countries bear the losses. Can Warsaw withstand the pressure from EU member states?” he asks. 

Rail trade pillar

The China-Europe Railway Express has become a pillar of EU-China commerce. The line runs through Belarus into Poland and carries about 90% of all China–EU rail freight. In 2024, cargo volumes on the route grew 10.6% year-on-year, while the value of goods surged 85% to about 25.07 billion euros (US$27 billion).

The rail bridge now accounts for roughly 3.7% of all EU-China trade, up from 2.1% a year earlier. The increase was driven by high-turnover cross-border e-commerce and higher-value industrial consignments.

For Chinese e-commerce giants such as Temu and Shein, the rail leg has been a lifeline to compress delivery times without paying air‑freight premiums. This land route has also become increasingly essential as China seeks to boost trade with the EU and diversify from the US amid the Sino-US trade war. 

Public data showed that about 60% of loads comprise electronics, machinery, lithium batteries and electric vehicles, precisely the categories where delivery predictability and cash‑cycle velocity matter most.

“If the border is to be fully open, there must be peace on both sides,” an aide to Sikorski told reporters.

On Thursday (September 18), Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said Poland would reopen the crossings only when conditions are safe. He added that Polish border guard forces recorded increased attempts by Belarusian and Russian drones to enter Polish airspace, underscoring that the border remains highly tense. 

“The China‑Europe Railway Express is a flagship project of China–Poland and China–EU cooperation. The project benefits both sides,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on September 11. “We hope Poland will take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of the Express and the stability of international industrial and supply chains.”

A Hebei-based columnist says Chinese freight forwarders have suffered the most from the closure as Baltic carriers tripled 40-foot high-cube container rates to about $9,500, above peak levels seen during the Covid pandemic.

“Looking at the whole chain, the most innocent party is the China–Europe Railway Express,” he says. “It was built to transport goods, yet it has been dragged into geopolitical conflicts. Both Chinese exporters and European importers are hurt.”

Many shippers are rebooking to ocean routes on Asia–Europe loops. This can lower unit costs, but transit times roughly double, straining just-in-time delivery requirements, launch schedules and seasonal sales.

Others are shifting to the Middle Corridor via Kazakhstan–Caspian–Azerbaijan–Georgia–Turkey to the EU. This route avoids Russia and Belarus but requires a ferry across the Caspian Sea and several extra transfers, which typically means higher shipping prices and longer waiting times.

For time-sensitive goods, traders are up‑gauging to air for all or part of the journey, absorbing substantial premiums to hit delivery schedules.

‘Poland broke trusts’

A Sichuan-based writer using the pen name Huazhijiao says that, over the long run, China and the EU will need to diversify transport pathways to reduce single‑point exposure.

In practice, companies are pivoting via:

• Northern line (Russia–Finland): A regular Chongqing–Helsinki Arctic route that bypasses Poland; icebreakers are needed in winter.
• Southern line (Middle Corridor): Xi’an–Budapest via Turkey and the Caspian; can be three days faster at best, but requires more transfers.
• Central Asia options: Overland via Kazakhstan and the South Caucasus, but with limited capacity and frequent delays.
• Strategic rail link: The planned China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway would reduce the China-Europe distance by 900 kilometers and transport over 50 million tons annually upon completion.

As Huazhijiao puts it, the barbed wire at Poland’s edge not only blocks cargoes, but also undermines the trust that keeps globalization running. He opines that mending those links will be harder than simply reopening a gate.

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