Kyiv’s attacks on Russian energy could force Kremlin to negotiate

Is Russia heading the way of the Soviet Union in 1991?

 This would indeed be ironic as Vladimir Putin loathes Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsyn, blaming them for the biggest geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century: the collapse of the country for which the current Russian president retains deep nostalgia, the USSR.

Although many experts have described the Russian economy and finances as laden with portents of doom, collapse might exaggerate the grounds for pessimism. Nevertheless, Russian government officials and bankers are warning of recession, collapsing finances, and other problems.

Herman Gref, head of state-owned Sberbank PJSC, Russia’s largest lender, said Thursday Russia’s economy had moved into ‘technical recession’ and that “July and August show quite clear symptoms that we are approaching zero growth.”

Images of fuel shortages in Russia are very real, with lines at petrol stations throughout Russia’s territory. This crisis is set to continue with Ukraine’s relentless attacks against Russian oil refineries and energy installations set to continue into winter.

Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s energy sector has been more successful than have Western sanctions.

Although the European Union cut back after 2022 on imports of oil and gas, Russian LNG will continue to be imported for two more years. Hungary and Slovakia still import Russian oil while Europe and the UK import “Indian” oil – Russian oil processed in India and renamed.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration slaps high sanctions on the second biggest importer of Russian oil – India – but has refused to sanction China, which is the biggest.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Vladimir Putin expected a swift victory from his “special military operation.” Instead, it is Kyiv that is now conducting a widespread air campaign using drones, missiles and sabotage by special forces against Russia’s oil and gas industry.

Ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the war’s costs more directly and the pressure on the Kremlin is growing. Russia’s economy cannot function without energy and eventually there will be a breaking point.

Perhaps the breaking point will come at the same time that Russians become angry at the colossal numbers of casualties – which average 1,000 per day and have now reached 1.1 million in just over three years, or 20 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan over a decade of the USSR’s occupation of Afghanistan. Steve Rosenberg, the BBC’s Moscow correspondent, has found that even in Vladivostock – 4,000 miles from Ukraine – cemeteries are full of Russia’s war dead.

Since late 2023, Ukraine has unleashed a drone offensive, using domestically produced medium and long-range drones to target Russian oil refineries.  

By 2024, the Biden administration was upset at the impact Ukraine was beginning to have, as the US was sensitive to changes to oil prices. The Biden administration was also paranoid about “escalation” in its proxy war with Russia.

For Russia, oil and gas revenues help fund its ongoing war against Ukraine. It’s a costly ordeal for Russia, which must continually feed waves of manpower into Ukraine’s “drone wall” as the war grinds into a battle of attrition.

Drones have formed the backbone of Ukraine’s defense, and now they’re increasingly used on the offensive against Russia. Over time, the drone strikes became more effective. By 2025, Ukraine had built an extensive fleet of medium and long-range drones and put them to use, targeting Russian oil and hitting Moscow where it hurts most.

Kyiv believes these to be “kinetic sanctions,” since the West has been hesitant to target Russian oil for years. And for Putin, rising fuel prices are a potential political threat to the stability of his regime. Many Russians still remember the collapsing Soviet economy in the 1980s.

Since early August, Ukraine has carried out more tens of strikes on Russian oil refineries, knocking out as much as 20% of refining capacity – over 1 million barrels a day. According to The Economist, the attacks have forced rationing, sent wholesale petrol prices up by more than 50%, and pushed Russia to suspend gasoline exports. The attacks are continuing into September and will continue further into winter.

The notches on Kyiv’s belt are many, as this tweeted graphic illustrates:

The result is that Russians are stuck in long lines waiting for fuel. Some cities don’t have any fuel supplies left. Russian war bloggers are furious. Local government budgets are in freefall. All of Russia’s major oil companies have reported profit declines in 2025, with industry-wide earnings cut in half.

The shortages now dominate the headlines of Russian newspapers. By early September, Putin himself was forced to admit that Russia is facing a gas shortage. The result is growing social pressure within the country. One Russian war blogger wrote, “We’ve been half-dead here for months, digging mud in the trenches, under drones every day, counting bullets – while, back home, oil refineries are burning down in batches.”

The Kremlin’s official narrative has been that damage to refineries came from falling debris after drones were shot down. Yet,at the same time, Russian authorities broadcast loudspeaker warnings urging citizens not to record footage of Ukrainian drones – an implicit admission that direct hits have been occurring and a warning not to broadcast the success of Kyiv’s efforts.

Things will continue to get worse for Russia. Ukrainian defense company Fire Point has recently unveiled two new ballistic missiles, the FP-7 and FP-9, with ranges of 200 km and 855 km respectively, as part of Kyiv’s push to strike deeper into Russian territory. Kyiv has also been deploying AI drone swarms. With time, this technology will be extended to long-range drones.

Putin would need more legs than a biped possesses to account for his Achilles heels: growing Russian disquiet at high military casualties, shortages and high prices for petrol and a declining economy and finances. Ukraine’s attacks are exacerbating these three areas and more likely to bring an end to the war than all the talks undertaken by President Trump and the Europeans.

David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in publications by organizations such as the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis and the Modern Warfare Institute. He can be found on X/Twitter @DVKirichenko.

Taras Kuzio is a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. He is co-editor of Russia and Modern Fascism: New Perspectives on the Kremlin’s War Against Ukraine (Columbia University Press, 2025) and is co-author of The Four Roots of Russia’s War Against Ukraine  (Cambridge University Press, 2025); Crimea: Where Russia’s War Started and Where Ukraine Will Win (Jamestown Foundation, 2024), and Russian Nationalism and the Russian-Ukrainian War (Routledge, 2022). He can be found on X/Twitter @TarasKuzio.