Donald Trump appears to have had a major change of heart with regard to Ukraine. On the face of it, it looks like he has embraced outright optimism that Kyiv “is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”
This came with the message that Europeans will need to be in the driver’s seat to make this happen. According to Trump, a Ukrainian victory depends on “time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO.”
The only US commitment is “to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them.” Most tellingly, Trump signed off from his Truth Social missive with: “Good luck to all!” This is perhaps the clearest indication yet that the US president is walking away from his efforts to strike a peace deal.
It also suggests that he has given up on a separate deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. But this is where the good news ends – and where the European-led coalition of the willing will need to deliver security and stability for the continent in an ever more volatile environment.
After several weeks of Russian incursions into NATO airspace, drones – thought highly likely to be linked to Russia – twice disrupted Danish airspace in the vicinity of Copenhagen airport. It felt like a presentiment of the dystopian drone wars predicted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his speech at the UN general assembly in New York on September 24.
Putin’s continuing provocations are a brazen challenge to Kyiv’s European allies. At the heart of this coalition of the willing, the European Union certainly has demonstrated it is willing to flex its rhetorical muscles to rise to this challenge.
EU institutions in Brussels have never left any doubt about their determination that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine “needs to end with a just and lasting peace for Ukraine”, as Ursula von der Leyen, the EU commission president, put it most recently in her state-of-the-union address.
Beyond rhetoric, however, the coalition of the willing is facing a number of potential problems. Individually, none of them is insurmountable, but taken together they illustrate the unprecedented challenge Kyiv’s European allies are facing.
Coalition confusion
To begin with, the coalition of the willing is not a coherent body. Its membership includes members of NATO and the EU, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. But the United States is not among their number.
It grew from eight countries plus the EU and NATO in February, to 33 participants in April, and 39 in September. Its relationship with the 57-member Ukraine Defense Contact Group of countries supporting Kyiv with military equipment, which held its 30th meeting in early September, is not entirely clear.
The lack of coherence in membership is mirrored by different levels of commitment, whether that’s the willingness to deploy a reassurance force after a ceasefire in Ukraine – or the capacity.
It’s also not entirely clear whether the leaders of the EU and NATO are speaking for all members of their organizations. Among EU and NATO members, Hungary and Slovakia, for example, have taken ambiguous stances when it comes to defending Europe against Russia.
These different levels of commitment also reflect partially conflicting priorities. European members of NATO are deeply – and not wrongly – concerned about US abandonment. Add to that their fears of a disastrous trade war and placating Donald Trump becomes a priority.
Doing so by buying US arms may please Trump and plug gaps in Europe’s ability to supply Ukraine. But it is perhaps not the best way of ensuring the urgently needed development of the independent European defense-industrial base.
Trump’s return to the White House swiftly ushered in the end of US largesse in support of Ukraine. Europeans have only partly filled that gap, with Germany taking the lead and the EU mobilizing over €10 billion (£8.7 billion) in its current budget to 2027, with the aim to supplement efforts by member countries.
But it’s not clear how long these efforts will be sustainable in light of inflation and domestic spending pressures. France’s public finances are in distress, while Spain has openly defied NATO’s 5% spending target.
Europe needs to step up – fast
Part of the solution to these problems would be much swifter defense-industrial cooperation across the coalition, including with Ukraine. Over time, this could help to build the indigenous defense-industrial capacity needed to produce military equipment at the scale needed.
But making up for critical gaps in manpower, dealing with the Russian drone threat, strengthening air defenses and long-range strike capabilities and replacing the potential loss of US intelligence support will not happen overnight.
Individual countries and the various multilateral forums in which they cooperate will need to decide how to balance three only partially aligned priorities. Europe – whether defined as EU, European NATO members or the core of the coalition of the willing – urgently needs to upgrade its defenses. Developing a European defense-industrial capacity at scale is integral to this.
Europeans also need to keep the US engaged as much as possible, literally by buying Trump off, because they currently lack critical capabilities that will take time for them to develop themselves. And while building better defense capabilities for themselves they will need to keep Ukraine in the fight against Russia to keep it from losing the war.
Europe needs to increase the money, develop the military muscle, and build decision-making mechanisms that are not mired in procrastination to win the proxy war that the Kremlin forced on Ukraine and its allies. To do so will ensure that Europeans are best placed to prevent Russia from broadening its war against Ukraine into a full-blown military confrontation with the west.
Richard Whitman is a member of the Conflict Analysis Research Center, University of Kent; and Stefan Wolff is a professor of international security, University of Birmingham.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Trump has much more in common with Sarah Palin than was evident at first glance, and reaction to his statements is also strikingly similar; Trump just strings together words he thinks sound good, and the western media and European leaders hear what they want to hear. Trump is enthusiastic about re-making this or that aspect of the world that surrounds him…until he runs into difficulties. Then he quickly decides this is boring, and his interest focuses elsewhere. I’m sure he finds the eager trumpeting of his words very gratifying, because he has a bottomless appreciation for his own cleverness and influence, but it should not be mistaken for commitment. Because it isn’t.
Tell us something we don’t know?
The West needs to face up its own aggression and dishonesty, starting with these propagandists who write up these puff pieces. NATO expansion was stopped in Ukraine. This was the source of the problem. Something about CIA backed Maidan overthrow in 2014 completely went past these people, as did the inability to sit down and talk with the Russians. Europeans are pathetic.
NATO has come to the end of its usefulness by pursuing an aggressive expansion rather than focusing on protecting balanced peace, including Russia. And the EU with its anti-Russian focus and its own mismanagement is heading into its own self-made “hundred years of humiliation”.
The next 25 years are not going to be kind to Europe with little control of its borders and Africa’s population set to double by 2050 and flood into Europe by the 10s of millions annually.
Aggressive? Like the re-liberation of Hungary in 1956, CzS in 1968 or Pl in 1980? The ex Warsaw Pact and Balts begged to join NATO to protect themselves against the Russian Empire.
And now the Ukr’s have found out what happens if they decide to go against Moskau.
As for Africa’s population set to double. Well in between blk Africa and Europe is N Africa (with a TFR about 2.1) so if the Euro’s turn boats back then the issue is in Africa
Funny. The Warsaw Pact countries had 40yrs of Russ occupation and were desperate to join the EU and NATO. Ukr with 300yrs of fighting and suffering side by side with Russ now want to be part of the West.
Old habits die hard. The last major wars started on the old continent and looks to be the same this time round. The concept of victory (or win-win) without firing a bullet and wasting resources and lives seems lost on these people.
Europeans can’t help it. Have been fighting for 1000 years, and want to fight for another 1000. They deserve to die.
Europeans are neanderthals. They started two world wars, and are giddy about a third round.
Bacha Bezi. you chaps do like it up the back alley.
Mr. Big Rooster, you excite me, You constantly refer to sexual stuff and sausages, weapons , spears etc. Obviously you are an expert with the male organ. Lets grind. Us boyz will make you enjoy every squirt.
Laymond Ree, the Squnits have been fighting far longer than that. And losing because of their small stature.
And where wxactly you see this agression? Made up crisis with the premise that Russia is weak and can be shaken up , split up. Salivating Westrrn oligarchy swooning overc Russia’s riches. War? Itching for it. But cannot have Britisg, French or German biys dying. But Poles are wiling, Rimanians may not be willing bit who cares for what people think. It is the degenerate “elites” or better out mafias that are running Western world. It is too bad that people are divided by stupidity and ideology, diverted by imigranrmt crisis, inflation. But the dangers that the current oligarchies are courting. It is not a video game. But the nedia us feeding Rusdian under every bed. And anybdy not buying the narrative is Rusdia shill. What is happening? The oligarchs should send theulit chidren first. All wars are interconnected. It is hard to tell any more tge difference between those shilling for Levant war and war eith Iran or war against Rusdia! What is the matter? The councidence?
Have you been drinking? i=o? Your post makes some sense, but the spelling is weird.
Well, we know what you’ve been drinking: Xi’s seed. Makes you a strong ladyboy.
Xi likes Lady Boys?
Trump just dumped Ukraine like an ugly girlfriend. No worries, the Europeans have an entire arsenal of slogans they can use to scare off the missiles from hitting Ukrainian targets.
I would love to see all these pro NATO propagandists and capturd politicians march onto the steppes of Ukraine to fight the big bad Russians. Of course that will never happen – it has to be other people’s kids doing the dying for these pigs.
I would just love all these pro paly and anti westerner shrills to go to Gaza or Russia to fight
I’m no supporter of Taco, but you missed the point. USA sells weapons to the EU for a profit. Meanwhile Taco makes Putin look intransigent, making a putsch by the oligarchs more likely.
Xi rescued you from the streets. You should be thankful. If it weren’t for him you’d still be servicing Asian men on your knees.
Does Winnie Xi Pooh know that you are calling him a jobby jabber?
Please don’t tell him, when next you’re bending over for him with your tub of vaseline in hand.
So is this official (for all the Chinee?) Xi is a dirt track rider? I think we should be told.
Mr. Big Rooster, you excite us, boyz. You constantly refer to sexual stuff and sausages and weapons, spears etc. You obviously are an expert with the male organ. Let’s grind. Us boyz will make you enjoy every squirt.