As Hamas and Iran grow more isolated is Russia also losing clout?

The September 9 Israeli strike against Hamas sends a clear political message: Israel will go to any lengths to force Hamas into surrender and the terrorist organization – along with its sponsor, Iran – is becoming increasingly isolated.

Even such a country as Qatar, which traditionally shielded Hamas, is apparently distancing itself from the group. Qatar allowed the Israeli strike on its territory.

The dust has not yet settled on the bombing of the Hamas leadership. It’s unclear who was killed in the attack. Are all the top five leaders dead, or just minor officials? However, it’s evident that Hamas’s living space has shrunk, Qatar is no longer a safe haven, and terrorists may have to decide whether to surrender or relocate.

Rumors suggest that Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has gone underground, fearing he could be a next target.

The Israelis reportedly informed the US and the UK about the action, who in turn informed Qatar, possibly Turkey, and other Middle Eastern countries. They all agreed, showing that Iran (Hamas’s main sponsor) is becoming more isolated in the region.

A massive regional escalation, therefore, seems unlikely – but the most important questions revolve around what Russia and China will do, considering their ties to Iran. Clearly, the terms of negotiations in Gaza have changed. Hamas cadres in the strip and out of it will be hunted down. Their only safety could be in a surrender to Israel.

In a separate incident, just hours after the Qatar bombing, Poland shot down three or four Russian drones after “a huge number” violated its airspace, said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. European countries and NATO were apparently rattled by the event, which Poland called an “act of aggression.” It is unclear whether Russia was probing NATO defenses and reactions.

In an apparent effort to de-escalate tensions, Belarus announced on Wednesday that it had shot down some drones that went astray due to electronic jamming during an exchange of strikes between Russia and Ukraine, and that Minsk had informed Poland and Lithuania of the drones’ approach.

The actions follow just days after the September 3 military parade in Beijing, where China showcased its new powerful arsenal, apparently aimed at the US. Beijing now faces a difficult decision: whether to support Iran further, potentially losing ground in the region, or maintain distance and hope to reestablish regional ties.

The same could be true with Russia, after its “wandering drones.” The next few days could be crucial. NATO and even the US might become more inclined to step up their support for Ukraine unless Russia stops its offensive.

This article was originally published by Appia Institute, of which the author is director. It is republished with permission.