US President Donald Trump has offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky security guarantees that Trump describes as “like Article V” of the NATO Treaty. Zelensky has apparently signed onto the Trump offer and potentially has agreed that some “territorial swaps” will be needed to make a deal with Russia.
Trump has reported to his European interlocutors who came to the White House to back up Zelensky. He told them more or less the same thing, according to reports, and told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who pushed for an immediate ceasefire, that a ceasefire ahead of a deal was off the table.
We don’t know what security guarantees mean or how they would be implemented. The Russians will be asking a lot of questions about the idea, if they have not already done so. Trump said he would be calling Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as today, July 18, 2025, where it is already after midnight as this is written.
Here are the likely questions about security guarantees.
(1) Will the US send troops to Ukraine (as the European so-called “coalition of the willing” wants to do) or will the assurances to Kyiv be political in nature?
(2) Will the US set up any kind of infrastructure in Ukraine as part of the assurances to Ukraine?
(3) While Trump has ruled out any NATO membership for Ukraine, will the Europeans, or some of then, be part of the Trump guarantee?
(4) Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which is the effective collective security provision of the Treaty, requires consensus of all NATO members. Is Trump thinking of a quasi-NATO-like arrangement that also will require consensus for activation? One should note that not all European countries plan to support any troop presence in Ukraine even for security assurances. Specifically, Germany, Italy and Poland have said “no” to proposals from the UK and France.
(5) NATO is a treaty organization that was formally approved by its members, meaning the Treaty was signed and ratified by each country’s legislative authority. If Trump’s security guarantees are not under a treaty format, the deal might not be supported by a future President. If Trump wants to sign a treaty with Ukraine, he will need to convince Congress it is in the US national interest. This may not be as easy as it would seem because many will start to question exactly what would oblige the US to take military action if there is a violation of the final deal on Ukraine. It is obvious these are tricky waters, and the Trump administration will have to skip a lot of rope to sell the idea of an actual guarantee that involves the US military in a war with Russia, which is, as I am sure some have noticed, a nuclear-armed power.
In the United States a treaty, for ratification, needs a two thirds vote in the US Senate. There may well be enough isolationists in Congress to block ratification, if Trump goes for a treaty. Down the road, one is reminded of Woodrow Wilson’s failure to achieve Senate backing for the Treaty of Versailles.
There are more recent examples of treaties that ran into trouble. These include the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the Convention on Elimination of All Forces of Discrimination Against Women and the Law of the Sea Convention.
(6) The Russians have demanded a smaller Ukrainian military and a neutral Ukraine. Will this demand be honored in any way?
(7) We don’t yet have any idea on the territories Ukraine will yield, or the actual borders (since the Russians do not control all of Donbas). This will be a tough negotiation, and Putin will be under heavy pressure from his army, which, for the most part, is gaining ground in Donbas and elsewhere.
Trump faces an uphill battle selling US guarantees for Ukraine, notwithstanding whether they require US boots on the ground and if others will join the US, such as the UK and France. In one sense, with a smaller group, the Russians will regard the future risk as greater than the NATO risk because the UK and French are aggressively promoting their participation in armed conflict against Russia. A so-called coalition of some-willing looks like a non-starter for Russia.
All of this means that what looks like a success at the White House may devolve into another casualty of the Ukraine war. The offer of guarantees may fail under scrutiny, either by Russia or by the US Congress.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared in his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
It will be either US troops or Ukraine with nuclear arsenal and missiles with thousand of km of range, that is the choice. Ukraine remembers US guarantees lol.
Who’s letting a backwater country of inbred Nazis like Ukraine have a nuke? What would they mount it on? A donkey cart.
It would take Ukrainians three months and their best scientists to figure out which was the top and which was the bottom of a nuke.
Trump said he’ll ‘help’ the Europeans provide a security guarantee, but that they’d be ultimately responsible for it. Seems clear that it won’t be an Article 5 type deal, binding the US to fight for Ukraine, but that if the peace is violated, he’ll send only weapons to the EU to let them make war with Russia on their own. It’s a very clever compromise.
You have to look beyond the orange chump here. American politics is tainted beyond repair. No agreement is worth the paper – because even if chump had good intentions, the next guy in will reverse any progress and go backwards again. If anybody has seen the picture of the European poodles at the white house, it sums up the West. They are the laughingstock of the world.
Hang on, are you saying much will depend on the Europeans stepping up to the plate? Poor Ukraine.
But the article ignores what a continuation of the war will do to Russia. 1m dead or wounded in 3yrs. The hatred of another neighbor. The national surplus has been spent. Moscow increasingly Central Asian. Loss of oligarchs ability to visit the West and buy properties etc. Increasing numbers of Ch in Siberia. Total loss of influence in the near abroad.
I could go on and on. But the Russian Empire is only half way through it’s collapse.
But the war is no longer about anything else than Putin’s survival.
1 million dead is worthless British propaganda. It looks like you fell for it.
He was educated in maths by his uncle, who had a ‘touching’ influence on little kids.
😂😂😂😂
You been found little rooster
That is why you kill babies