Trump Doctrine 2.0: a half-year economic autopsy

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump returned not just to the White House, but to the command center of the global economy. He reclaimed power with the promise of an “economic revolution,” vowing to end an order he decried as “unfair.”

Now, after the first six months of his new term, the world is grappling with the consequences of this radical doctrine: a bifurcated economy in which traditional markets struggle under the weight of trade wars and uncertainty while new frontiers in the digital economy are conquered at a breathtaking pace.

This report is a detailed autopsy of the plans, performance, and impacts of Trump’s economy after the halfway mark in his first year in office – an analysis of how one man’s decisions in Washington are rewriting the rules of the game for the entire world.

The Trump agenda – from promise to practice

Trump’s economic agenda was a suite of aggressive, disruptive policies designed for a rapid overhaul of the American economy. As of this month, however, his executive report card reveals a mixed picture of decisive victories, conspicuous failures and suspended projects. The following table assesses the implementation staus of his key programs:

Table 1: Assessment of key economic programs of the Trump administration (Jan – Aug 2025)

Trump’s six-month record sends a clear message: He excels at executing disruptive, fast-impact policies achievable through executive authority, such as tariffs, deregulation, and shifting the stance of regulatory bodies. The crypto revolution and the trade war are prime examples of his ability to upend the status quo.

However, he has been entirely unsuccessful in delivering on promises requiring long-term fiscal discipline or complex congressional consensus, such as debt reduction and the infrastructure plan.

In fact, his successful policies (tax cuts and tariffs) have directly contributed to his failure to control the debt. This pattern reveals that the Trump doctrine is focused more on short-term shock therapy than on long-term stabilization.

US economic scorecard – before, now and next

The effects of this doctrine have rapidly manifested in macroeconomic indicators. The US economy is undergoing a profound transformation in which some metrics have improved while others have severely weakened and nearly everything is in a state of flux and uncertainty.

Table 2: Key US economic indicators (pre- & post-Trump II) and future outlook

These numbers tell the story of a deeply fractured and transitioning economy, one in which two parallel worlds are moving at different speeds.

On one side lies the Main Street economy, measured by indicators like unemployment and GDP, which is clearly buckling under the crushing pressure of the new administration’s policies.

The sharp drop in GDP growth to 1% and the forecast of a prolonged slowdown are not just figures on a page; they are the direct result of the trade war and the surge in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (to 430), which are acting like a slow poison on the real economy’s foundations.

Sweeping tariffs have disrupted supply chains and raised production costs for American factories. This uncertainty deters employers from hiring and postpones long-term investment. Simultaneously, restrictive immigration policies are limiting the labor supply in key sectors like agriculture and construction, driving up wage pressures.

This means the American middle and working classes are squeezed from both sides. Their job security is threatened by a slowing economy, while their cost of living is rising due to import-driven inflation from tariffs.

On the other side is the digital & speculative economy, which, in a different universe, is experiencing an explosive boom thanks to a tsunami of deregulation. Policies like the passage of the GENIUS Act and the appointment of pro-crypto officials sent a clear signal to Wall Street: The era of strict oversight is over. The result was a historic rally that pushed Bitcoin’s price past $90,000 and funneled trillions in new capital into the market.

This boom has created a “Wealth Effect” for a small group of investors, but this wealth is largely on paper, concentrated in volatile assets, and has no direct link to improving infrastructure or boosting productivity in the real economy.

This profound dichotomy is the central challenge facing policymakers. The Federal Reserve is now caught in a historic bind: it must combat inflation driven by tariffs while likely being forced to cut interest rates to prevent a recession caused by those same policies. This contradiction dramatically increases the risk of a major policy error that could tip the economy into a period of stagflation.

On the scales

Has Trump acted correctly? The answer depends on one’s time horizon and perspective. For a short-term crypto trader or an oil industry executive, his policies have been a godsend. But for a macroeconomist concerned with long-term stability, fiscal sustainability and America’s place in the world, his actions are a series of high-stakes gambles that could lead to a full-blown crisis.

The future of America: The United States is on a path toward a mild stagflation-lite: weak economic growth, rising unemployment and inflation that remains stubbornly above target due to tariffs. The national debt is exploding, and this fiscal indiscipline will, in the long run, weaken the dollar and America’s economic power. The Trump doctrine, by creating a two-speed economy, exacerbates inequality; wealth becomes concentrated in speculative and digital sectors, while the middle and working classes grapple with a higher cost of living and less job security.

The future of the world: The world is adapting to an unpredictable and nationalist America. Trump’s policies are accelerating the trend of global economic decoupling and a shift toward a bipolar or multipolar order. Traditional allies like Europe and Japan are pursuing “strategic autonomy,” while rivals like China are building parallel trade and financial coalitions to reduce their dependence on the dollar. This trend means less efficiency in the global economy, higher costs and the erosion of international institutions. The world of the Trump era will be one of slower economic growth, higher geopolitical risk and less international cooperation.

Final judgment: The Trump doctrine is a strategy of “creative destruction,” disrupting the existing order in the hope of creating a new one that is, in his view, “fairer.” But the great risk is that the “destruction” phase proves far more successful than the “creative” one. With his actions, he has opened Pandora’s box of uncertainty, and now not only the US economy but the entire world must live with the consequences.

History will judge whether this was a necessary shock to fix a flawed system or the beginning of the end of American economic leadership. For now, only one thing is certain: the game has changed, and the old rules no longer apply.

A senior economic analyst and deputy CEO of an oil & gas company based in Tehran, Amirreza Etasi (Amir.etasi@gmail.com) has worked for more than a decade at the intersection of public finance, energy and development policy, both in executive roles and as a contributor to major media outlets in Iran and abroad.