Ukraine mess: finding a way forward

The recent massive bombings on Ukrainian territory and advances by the Russian army are harbingers of the end game that will befall Ukraine unless that country can find a way out. One solution is to make Ukraine a flexible actor, meaning to insulate Zelensky. The best way to do that is a coalition government to carry the burden of negotiations with Russia.

Today we keep hearing from Zelensky and his cohorts that they can win the war without America, that they won’t yield even one meter of Ukrainian territory to the hated Russians, that they can buy American military equipment “on rental” or buy American hardware by using Germany as a front.

Does the Ukrainian leadership actually believes what they are saying?

My guess is they don’t believe any of it but are trying to reassure their people. But it is hard to be reassuring when missiles and drones are exploding everywhere and you are sleeping in a shelter or a cold basement.

Negotiations blunder

The great blunder came in on or about March 30, 2022. That is when Boris Johnson allegedly convinced Zelensky to back out of the peace deal agreed to by the parties in Istanbul. My own reading is that Johnson gave a sort of legitimacy to a Zelensky decision to walk away from a deal with Russia, fearing that his army would topple his presidency and maybe kill him.

Prior to that, as former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reported, Zelensky was afraid the Russians would kill him, and Bennett secured a pledge from Vladimir Putin not to do so. But no such pledge was possible if the threat was from ultras in the Ukrainian army.

Since then, Zelensky has taken a fully irredentist position on any settlement with Russia, demanding the Russian army leave Ukraine and that Putin be punished for war crimes. By his total inflexibility Zelensky has foreclosed successful mediation by the United States.

To cover his tracks, Zelensky has demanded a 60 day cease fire, something the Russians would never accept, but Trump tried to sell it to Moscow, to no effect. The idea was again floated as recently as July 3rd when Putin and Trump talked for more than an hour by telephone.

The problem for Ukraine, not just Zelensky, is that Ukraine is running out of weapons and soldiers and starting to lose territory at an alarming rate. As supply roads and ammunition dumps, along with command centers and factories, are destroyed, the situation worsens on a daily basis.

The Russians have a number of aces in their hands. First, they have a large army with a significant reserve that they have not committed to the war yet. That compares with Ukraine’s serious problems not only in recruiting new soldiers, but also in keeping them, as desertion rates have grown at an alarming pace.

Russia also is bringing in more North Koreans, something that appears to strengthen North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, who recently held a tearful public funeral for his soldiers killed in the Ukraine war (there were only five coffins) and a big celebratory concert extolling the virtue of sacrificing your life for the Fatherland.

Ammunition problems

Russian war production is also reportedly at an all time high while Ukraine’s suppliers are floundering badly. The recent “show cause” letter the army sent to the US defense company General Dynamics, which partnered with a Turkish company, Repkon, threatened to cancel the project tasked with building a 155mm artillery production plant in Mesquite, Texas.

The US-government-owned new factory (the first of three) was supposed to buck up US 155mm shell production enough to comfortably supply Ukraine. Now the US Army is on the verge of firing GD because the facility is not on schedule and there are serious shortfalls in the machinery for the plant, some of which comes from Turkey.

Around the same time the Army released its “show cause” letter to GD, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that certain supplies, some of them missiles and other high tech equipment, and 155mm shells, would not be delivered to Ukraine – including some supplies already shipped to Poland.

The Trump administration has been building up US capabilities in the Middle East. The Hegseth cancellation, based on badly depleted US weapons’ stocks, is part of a growing concern that replenishing important systems, including Patriot air defense missiles, has not worked out as expected. The US faces manufacturing delays, supply chain problems, and labor shortages.

The best that can be said is that the United States is far away from a defense industrial base that can produce sufficient war fighting equipment for extended conflict periods. Various think tanks and numerous simulations have always said the US would run out of smart weapons in a major conflict in only a few weeks. When you add that the US also cannot keep up with straightforward traditional ammunition production, the problem is seriously compounded.

This leaves Ukraine in a cascading mess. Something has to give, and soon, for Ukraine to survive as an independent state. NATO is not going to intervene because the risk outweighs the benefit, as Europe would become a war zone. What is the answer?

Steps toward a positive outcome

The first step is to give Trump tools he can use to barter with Russia. Zelensky has done the opposite up till now – but that game, if it continues, is suicidal.

The best place to begin is to signal a willingness to accept the Istanbul agreement reached in 2022. The Russians will try to say that the Istanbul agreement is now water under the dam, but there is a chance Putin would accept it as a starting point. He has said in many speeches that the Istanbul agreement would have ended the war and Russia would have accepted it.

Obviously there are Russian demands not accounted for at Istanbul that must be taken account of by the parties. The important point is that by accepting Istanbul as a starting point, US President Donald Trump would have something “real” to start a real diplomatic process, not just a plethora of “plans” none of which is going anywhere until the starting positions change.

The second point is the US has real leverage that includes access to markets for Russia, technology sharing, commercialization and investment and rebuilding in Ukraine.

Putin says he is committed to rebuilding the areas in Donetsk, Zaphorize, Kherson and Crimea that have been destroyed by the fighting. But Russia does not have either the resources or the money to do much on its own. US assistance is needed. The Russians are seeking a high level deal with the United States.

The third point is the nature of Ukraine’s government, which rules by decree as the Zelensky government has frozen elections and jailed, restricted or exiled opposition politicians. While it is important for Zelensky to end martial law and permit elections, an immediate step is to form a coalition government to negotiate with Russia.

A coalition government spreads responsibility for any deal to all the pertinent political players, making it easier for them to make concessions. Another key benefit is that it helps protect Zelensky from accusations of a sellout.

Ukraine is at an inflection point. Either it can continue and lose the war, perhaps leading to regime change and a political crisis, or it can take steps to put realistic proposals on the table, something that may require a coalition to achieve.

Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and a former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.