Xi Jinping may not be as supportive of Vladimir Putin as many observers think. Image: Supplied

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) cited unnamed sources to report that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his EU counterpart that China doesn’t want Russia to lose in Ukraine because the US’s whole focus might then shift to China.

His alleged remarks were spun by the mainstream media as an admission that China isn’t as neutral as it claims, just as they and their alternative media rivals suspected. Both now believe that China will help Russia achieve its maximum goals, but that’s likely not the case.

Assuming for the sake of argument that Wang did indeed say what was attributed to him, it would align with the assessment around the conflict’s one-year anniversary in February 2023 that “China Doesn’t Want Anyone To Win In Ukraine.”

The SCMP channeled the gist of the preceding analysis by writing that “One interpretation of Wang’s statement in Brussels is that while China did not ask for the war, its prolongation may suit Beijing’s strategic needs, so long as the US remains engaged in Ukraine.”

To explain, not only would the US be unable to “pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China at the scale that Trump envisages if the Ukrainian conflict drags on, but the continued pressure placed on the Russian economy by Western sanctions would benefit the Chinese economy.

China already imports a staggering amount of discounted Russian oil, which helps maintain its economic growth amid the slowdown that it’s experiencing, but this could end if sanctions were curtailed.

Additionally, the greater that China’s role becomes in serving as a valve for Russia from Western sanctions pressure (both in terms of energy imports for helping to finance the Russian budget but also exports that replace lost Western products), the more dependent Russia will become on China.

The increasingly lopsided nature of their economic relations could then be leveraged to secure the most preferential long-term energy deals possible regarding the Power of Siberia II and other pipelines.

These outcomes could restore China’s superpower trajectory that was derailed during the first six months of the war as explained here at the time, thus strengthening its overall resilience to US pressure and therefore making it less likely that the US can coerce a series of lopsided deals from it.

It’s for this reason that Trump’s Special Envoy to Russia Steve Witkoff is reportedly pushing for the US to lift its energy sanctions on Russia in order to deprive China of these financial and strategic benefits.

The nascent Russian–US “new detente” could restore the Kremlin’s energy clientele as a first step via phased sanctions relief, thus expanding its range of partners to preemptively avert the aforementioned Russian dependence on China, especially in the event of joint energy cooperation in the Arctic.

The purpose, as explained here in early January, would be to deprive China of decades-long access to ultra-cheap resources for fueling its superpower rise at the US’ expense.

All in all, a Russian victory (whether in full or in part via compromises) could end the discounted energy bonanza that’s helping China maintain its economic growth amid the slowdown, ergo why Beijing won’t send military aid or troops to facilitate this (apart from also fearing serious Western sanctions).

Likewise, the scenario of the West inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia would be catastrophic for China’s security, thereby providing another reason for the aforementioned imports to help Russia maintain its war economy.

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.

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64 Comments

  1. If you watch the Tucker interview with MTG you realize both are not raving lunatics and articulate true US interests coherently

    1. Funny that there are no different viewpoints in China. I wonder why not.
      All hail Winnie Xi Pooh.

  2. The cohesion is being driven by Western policies which Trump is trying to reverse. That’s why Murdoch is trying to Epstein him to gain policy leverage.

      1. I don’t know any Indian languages. However, the Wall Street Journal published a pretty nasty piece on Trump’s past ties with Epstein. Murdoch does not like the tariff war and wants Trump to back off and be more pliant.

      2. As to ‘cohesion’ I am referring to the relationship between Iran Russia North Korea China and now likely Brazil, not necessarily natural allies, but pushed together by Western hostility. India has to figure out what it wants to do. Trying to be all things to all people wont cut it going forward.

        1. Brasil will probably flip flop to another pro-USA leader next time – going by history.
          Iran (like Syria) has been humiliated. Russia has gone from the 2nd best military in the world to the 2nd best in Ukr… Putinkim Army.
          NK – fatboykim just wants a bad haircut and to cling on to power.
          China – riots in 4 regions, high youth unemployment, huge debts, Winnie Xi Pooh in hiding…..
          Small people, small weapons.

        2. But you didn’t mention India (and I wouldn’t either).
          Maybe Pak …. oh ok no.
          South Africa? No? Maybe Somalia, or Zimbabwe?

      3. Dear littlegeldedrooster: You might be able to speak properly if you stop trying to swallow sausages. I know you love them because you talk about them all the time.

  3. Why wouldn’t china want this war to drag on? 320 billion is how much america has wasted. This is bankrupting America.

    1. Weakening Russia, large parts of which China claims. US has plenty of money – it’s just paper

  4. Putin is beginning to show himself as a fool. Why prolong a war to acquire a few more miles of a country that’s he’s already largely turned to rubble? Seems like he’s on an ego trip at this stage. You’ve proven your point Vladimir, Russia exists within the pantheon of military superpowers, but enough is enough now.

    1. Russians, no. They only work out how to get vodka tonight.
      Tiddly Winks are sitting back and watching the Gweilos who imposed Aigen Treaty (1858) and Peking Convention (1860) implode.

      1. I know that you think in comic book sketches but given that China is now practically a monopoly buyer on the cheap of 80 trillion in resources as well as a captive market of 150 million people you actually believe that they would waste blood and treasure to destroy their own Russian ‘hinterland and shield’.They would also cut off a source of spouses as both sides in Ukraine lose people. And this is because they are smarting over a 200 year old unfair treaty?
        Do cut down on the biogas inhalation, please!

  6. Hahaha…..One more article to show that the author has no clues to opine correctly about Russia.

    Trump already turned pro-Ukraine, is sanction-happy about Russia. No nascent Russian–US “new detente”, stillborn, bud.

    1. As you should know the majority of Russians do not like or trust Chinese.
      When Putin departs the stage, his successor will be kissing the backsides of the collective West.

        1. I been to Russia many times, Russia is leasing their Siberian farm lands to China. I visited one city, local people were very friendly. I met several college students, two of them were studying Chinese, because they believed China/Russia will get together. They made the smart choice.

          This BR is full of BS. This is his third time to write that Russians don’t like or trust Chinese. No basis, just off his fetid air.

          1. You must know that is untrue, the Russ look down (physically) but and fear (numerically) the Chinese.
            I have worked in Russia and they were extremely ray cist against the Squnities.

        2. OK. So which Russian oligarchs have or had houses in Peking or China/ No, they all had gaffs and boats in the West.
          They look down on the Slopes.

          2. Yes. Oil patch. Ch ladies (LBFM) were desperate for something more virile and to get out of a polluted Peking.

  7. So according to the author, if Russia win, it means the end of cheap oil to China? Does that mean if Russia win, the west will immediately lift the sanction, and let the oil flow to the west? What about Ukraine, western supposedly “ally”? The west just going to abandon Ukraine, treating it like it never exist?

    1. Lack of imagination is like an orange without juice. Thinking outside the box requires a lot of imagination. I’ll show you how to imagine.
      – Russia loses the war: The US and the EU win again after defeating the Soviet Union. With Ukraine, the West is less dependent on the shortage of rare earths. Ukraine is advanced enough to process rare earths itself, and the US and the EU are rich enough to buy them. This way, Ukraine can be rebuilt and become richer than the exhausted, drained Russia under Vampire Poo-tin. And the US can finally focus on the Pacific region. Bad for China.
      – Russia wins the war: For the US and the EU, it’s just a resurrection of the defunct USSR without the old Eastern Bloc. A smaller USSR with Belarus and an occupied part of Ukraine. Less deadly than the defunct USSR. But it’s a real problem for China because Russia needs to rebuild its bankrupt economy and won’t allow China to extort cheap oil and other resources. Russia will sell them at market prices or, like China’s weaponizing rare earths, use oil and other resources against the West AND China. That’s bad for China, too.

      And Wang Yi is a fool. Instead of keeping his ace up his sleeve, he showed it off stupidly and made Xhit Cheatpig look like a fool too.

      1. Ukraine does not have viable rare earths. Brazil does. Don’t fall for the pr stunt. This war is existential for Russia. It cannot lose. NATO will disintegrate if Ukraine loses. China has nothing to do with the situation. They are just rolling with it.

        1. @Dave, how imbecile you can be. Why don’t you google for the term “ukraine rare earth minerals” and you get from Google then you know how a dunderhead you are

          1. You are the fool. I said commercially viable. Nothing is going to be developed while everyone can is being shelled. It takes capital and technology. Why would anyone do it in Ukraine when Brazil has no Gerans falling on it.

        1. Yep! The fool is the one who idolizes someone. And the way you idolize Wang Li says a lot about you…as a fool 🤣🤣

      3. sound like a cheap fiction, not even a good one. Even if Russia win the war, doesn’t mean Russia can immediately sell oil in market price, unless the west lift the sanction. If the sanction is in place, only China and India can ignore it to continue buying Russia oil. So I come back to my question, is the west going to abandon Ukraine if Russia win the war, and lift the sanction?

      4. Sad your juice-less brain can conceptualize only two outcomes out of an entire spectrum of possibilities, which coincidentally both negatively affect China and Russia. That’s the consequence of biased, undeveloped thinking, stifled by poor education.

        1. Yes, I put the toilet paper in the bowl, I discard it. What do you do with it, use it for feeding the pigs which then you eat?

    3. I don’t think anyone really cares about Ukraine, otherwise they’d have sent their troops to fight alongside the Ukrainians. They just care about degrading Russian military power and blowing up its economy.

        1. They kept their nuclear technicians there during the war. You seem to be a master of wishful thinking and self gaslighting.

          2. Worked in many place in oil, lots of young ladies. But the Chinese really wanted something more virile.

          4. You have an obsession with Chinese girls. Must have gotten rejected and laughed at more times than you have posted.