A mosaic of cultures, ethnicities, and religions, Syria is home to various sects of Islam, Christians, and Yazidis. Now, this West Asian country, which has experienced a calamitous series of conflicts over the last fifteen years, is facing an existential challenge – a recent spark of sectarian violence threatens Syria’s future stability and unity.
The question arises whether the new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former rebel with a jihadist background, is able to cope with the task of a peaceful transition to a free and secular Syria. If Damascus fails to prevent further outbreaks of tensions, escalation to wide-scale violence will be hard to avert.
According to Mark S. Chandler, a retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer and former director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s Middle East and Africa Center, currently teaching at Coastal Carolina University, the prospects for ending sectarian violence in Syria are slim for the near future.
“The internal challenges are real and complicated,” he told this author. “There is no true central government currently able to consolidate enough power to stop sectarian violence in various regions. That will remain a challenge into the future for any new government transition.”
When the alarm bell rings
In early March, sectarian clashes targeting the Alawite minority erupted in Latakia, a coastal region of Syria and former stronghold of the Assad regime. The violence followed reports that militants supportive of the toppled government, primarily former Alawite officers, had assaulted members of the new security forces.
Retaliation was not long in coming, and the area imploded in a wave of massacres, with hundreds of Alawite civilians being killed within days. Armed gunmen asked people if they were Alawites and dealt with them according to the answer.
“While that was not directed by the ‘government,’ government forces did nothing to stop the attacks on the Alawites for several days,” Chandler said. “That type of ‘payback’ violence will continue to flare up at times.”
Violence has not stopped with the Alawites, but has spilled over southward to Jaramana; Ashrafiyah Sahnaya, southwest of Damascus; and Syria’s Druze heartland, Suwayda, close to the Jordanian border. Tensions boiled over late in April, triggered by a viral fake audio recording in which a Druze scholar allegedly insulted the Prophet Muhammad.
Tellingly, it took just a few days for fighting to break out between Syrian security forces and armed groups in Druze-majority Jaramana, followed by clashes in Ashrafiyah Sahnaya. Military confrontations peaked in the country’s south on April 30, with the total death toll reaching 101, including more than 30 Druze fighters ambushed on the Suwayda-Damascus road.
In the meantime, Israel has stepped in. In addition to declaring a buffer zone in southern Syria, Tel Aviv carried out air strikes, including near the presidential palace in Damascus. With a stated aim of protecting the Druze sect, whose members account for 1.6% of Israel’s population, Tel Aviv also strives to shape security environments near its borders.
“These types of attacks on the Druze and Israeli military action will continue and flare up,” Chandler pointed out. “Also, Israel continues to patrol – and conduct military operations along the [southern] Syrian border to ensure its own security against those tribal and terrorist factions.”
Syria’s ethnoreligious melting pot
Syria’s deep political, ethnic and religious divisions did not just happen yesterday and are unlikely to disappear tomorrow.
“The Assad regime’s collapse in December was a major change not only in Syria but in the broader Middle East security and geopolitical dynamics,” Chandler said. “The Assad family had controlled Syria with an iron fist for over 50 years. I would argue the full effect is not realized yet and may not be for some time – months or years even.”
The Assads belong to the Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that constitutes 10% of Syria’s population. In an effort to secure the minority’s loyalty, the regime relied on Alawite factions and exploited fears of a jihadist threat. Under Assad’s rule, Alawites disproportionately held top positions in military, intelligence, and government services, while the Sunnis’ majority was underrepresented and made up the bulk of the arrest victims.
Apart from the Alawites, 2.5 million Kurds form another significant minority that resides mostly in an autonomous region in northeastern Syria. Another minority, the Druze, an Arab esoteric religious group from Asia, makes up over 3% of the population.
Just a century ago, the Syrian Christian community, one of the oldest in the world, accounted for as much as 30% of the population. By now, their numbers have dropped dramatically to below 2% of the population, around 300,000 people. Syria is also home to 438,000 Palestinian refugees, with the majority having been displaced within the country at least once each due to military conflicts.
“Think of a jigsaw puzzle with various colors and shapes denoting the various religious, cultural, and tribal elements. They are all vying for control of their respective areas, and overall Syria for some of them. Now, next month, or next week, change those shapes and colors. That is what you are dealing with in Syria today.”
A challenge for al-Sharaa
Syria’s president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who led the overthrow of the Assad regime, has promised to respect all religions and form an inclusive transitional government. However, many remain sceptical about the intentions of al-Sharaa, who was leader of the now dissolved Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group with roots in al-Qaeda.
Notwithstanding the shift in his rhetoric, the new Syrian leader has yet to convince the nation and the international community that he is determined to stand by his words. Al-Sharaa will have no better opportunity. Now that the USA is set to lift sanctions against Syria – and US President Donald Trump has had tea with him in Riyadh – the new government will get desperately needed resources to make the economy function and stabilize the country.
“At the end of the ‘transition’, we could witness a consolidation of power sharing in true parliamentary fashion and a peaceful coexistence of the various religious, tribal and cultural groups,” Chandler said. “However, the opposite could happen, and we could witness a disintegration of the nation known as Syria into many smaller countries, much like we had when Yugoslavia disintegrated into the many Balkan states. This second option will not occur without bloodshed,” the expert warned.