Russia’s Shoigu says Ukraine ceasefire possible, but so is WWIII

Former Russian Defense Minister and incumbent Security Council secretary Sergey Shoigu gave a very detailed interview to state-run TASS about Russia’s security interests.

It’s a lengthy read, so the present piece will highlight the top five takeaways pertaining to the chances of a ceasefire, the scenario of Western peacekeepers in Ukraine, NATO threats, strategic security and Russia’s Eurasian security initiative. Interview takeaways follow:

1. Russia is ready for a ceasefire under certain conditions

Shoigu confirmed that “A ceasefire is possible if it is the beginning of a long-term peace, and not an attempt to organize another respite and regrouping of Ukrainian armed formations…we are ready for a ceasefire, a truce, and peace talks, but only if our interests and realities ‘on the ground’ are fully taken into account.”

The problem is that the EU continues to support Ukraine, including its numerous violations of the “energy ceasefire” and erstwhile Easter truce, which complicate the prospects for a ceasefire, he said.

2. Western troops in Ukraine could lead to World War III

Shoigu also reminded how Russia has always opposed NATO countries’ military presence “on our historical territory” even before the special operation [Ukraine invasion] and is waging it in part to remove such influence.

That’s why he warned that Western countries’ efforts to deploy troops to Ukraine under the guise of peacekeepers but for the actual purpose of controlling its resources and keeping its extremist anti-Russian government in power, could lead to World War III and should thus not be attempted.

3. NATO continues to pose a very serious threat to Russia

According to Shoigu, “Over the past year, the number of military contingents of NATO countries deployed near the western borders of the Russian Federation has increased almost 2.5 times”, and the bloc has already practiced deploying 100,000 more troops there within 30 days in the event of a crisis.

Moreover, “The EU leadership is seeking to transform the EU into a military organization aimed against Russia” through its 800 billion euro “ReArm Europe Plan”, which essentially turns it into an appendage of NATO.

4. Strategic arms control remains among Russia’s priorities

Shoigu said that Russia wants to negotiate another strategic arms control pact with the US but this will be more difficult to achieve than before. That’s because the spectrum of interests now includes NATO expansion, missile defense, the deployment of ground-based short- and intermediate-range missiles, and the need for France and the UK to participate.

He left open the possibility, though, of withdrawing the Oreshniks from Belarus if the US abandons its missile plans in Germany and NATO threats decrease.

5. Inter-organizational cooperation is the key to Eurasian Security

The last top takeaway from Shoigu’s interview is that he emphasized the importance of inter-organizational cooperation for ensuring security in Eurasia. He mentioned how the CIS, CSTO, EAEU, and SCO are working together on this and invited the EU to participate as well.

One of the goals is for them, the ASEAN states, and all other countries and organizations on the supercontinent to join Belarus’ initiative for a Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity in the 21st Century.

Putting together these points, if a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine and no Western troops are deployed there, then it’s expected that strategic arms control talks with the US might resume shortly thereafter.

These could also include ways of reducing NATO’s threat to Russia and thus eventually paving the way for the EU to participate in Russia’s Eurasian security initiative. Accordingly, if the US cannot successfully coerce Ukraine into agreeing to a ceasefire, then global security as a whole will continue to worsen.

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.