The official Kremlin readout from Putin’s most recent phone call with Trump shared the Russian leader’s demand that “a complete cessation of providing Kiev with foreign military aid and intelligence must become the key condition for preventing an escalation of the conflict and making progress towards its resolution.”
Trump’s temporary suspension of such assistance proves that he has the political will to shut it off for good if he gets what he wants from negotiations with Putin, but the Europeans are a different story altogether.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Trump during a Cabinet meeting on Monday (March 24) before the end of the 12-hour-long Russian-US talks in Riyadh that day that “You’ve [promoted peace] despite impediments from other countries”, which was arguably an allusion to the Europeans’ perceived warmongering.
Although deliberately vague, he might very well have been referring to the EU’s and UK’s plans to continue arming Ukraine in spite of Putin’s demand that this ceases as one of his most important conditions for peace.
Poland, Romania and the Black Sea, in descending order, serve as the entry points for foreign weapons into Ukraine, none of which the US has full control over. It jointly operates the Rzeszow logistics hub in southeastern Poland, through which an estimated 90-95% of all weapons to Ukraine pass, but this facility can continue functioning even if the US pulls out. The situation is similar to Romania’s newly built “Moldova Highway” for facilitating the shipment of arms from Greek ports to Ukraine.
The US military only jointly operates local port facilities in Alexandroupolis while having no direct influence over the “Moldova Highway”, both of which can also continue functioning without it.
As for the Black Sea, the new grain deal that the US is negotiating with Russia could either lead to international checks on cargo for detecting arms trafficking or create a plausible cover for this trade. In any case, just like the preceding two, the point is that others besides the US can rely on this route, too.
Trump is unlikely to threaten economic sanctions against nominal NATO allies whose countries continue to arm Ukraine even if his own decides to cut it off for good as part of a series of pragmatic compromises he’s negotiating with Russia to end the conflict sustainably.
The only scenario in which Trump might rally Congress to pass another arms package is if Russia significantly expands its ground campaign beyond the regions that it claims as its own, as was discussed here.
As long as that doesn’t happen, then America’s Biden-era aid will soon run out and Ukraine will then be entirely dependent on European largesse, but it’s unclear whether that drastic curtailment (also keeping in mind their already greatly depleted stockpiles) would suffice for Russia to cease hostilities.
Putin might agree to it as part of the series of pragmatic compromises that he’s now negotiating with Trump, or he could still lean on his counterpart to exert more pressure on the Europeans to follow in his footsteps.
Trump’s hands would be tied in the second scenario, but he could also lead from the front by suggesting that the Europeans instead stockpile the equipment that they want to send to Ukraine in Poland and Romania per their “security guarantee” commitments to Kiev.
These refer to the bilateral pacts clinched last year whereby major countries like the UK, France, Poland, Italy and the US itself basically agreed to resume their existing level of support for Ukraine if hostilities re-erupt.
Whatever weapons the Europeans might still send to Ukraine wouldn’t compensate for the cut-off of US aid so they would be transferring their equipment to be destroyed for no purpose other than delaying the inevitable political resolution of the conflict, by which time Russia could even gain more ground.
Putin might, of course, prefer for NATO not to stockpile anything in proximity to Ukraine’s borders for swift shipment if there’s a continuation of the war, but Russia can’t control what they do on their territory.
Trump and his team would, therefore, do well to convey these points to the Europeans to facilitate the Ukrainian peace process. Putin might not agree to a ceasefire or armistice so long as the Europeans continue arming Ukraine.
European arms flows may now just be wasting weapons that could otherwise be put to better use if hostilities re-erupt and the US thus restores its prior level of support for Ukraine. This proposed compromise might lead to a breakthrough.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
But that’s the US plan, to make Europe shoulder the burden of degrading the Russ.
It’s working well. I’m looking forward to visit Konigsberg free of Russians.
Grow a brain. This isn’t a US plan. This is a China plan and it’s working brilliantly. Military now depleted. Now gotta make the US and the Europeans squabble against each other and levy tariffs and start a trade war, so you can do untold economic damage. How’s it going so far? Canada? Tick in the box. Let’s all do this quietly so these dumb Nongs don’t figure out it was China all along.
The Chinese can’t wait to visit a male free Ukraine. It’ll be like candy in a candy shop. This is what happens when you pull the right strings.