Like a gambler suddenly realizing that the house always wins, Europe is waking up to the brutal reality of its dependence on American power. For decades, the continent relied on US security guarantees, never questioning the strings that might come attached.
As European leaders find themselves scrambling – both to protect Ukraine and to shield themselves from Washington’s shifting whims – one big worry is a looming threat of US tech leverage.
Beyond the erosion of the security umbrella, the US is also proving that its technological monopoly poses yet another threat to European security.
Reuters previously reported, citing three unamed sources, that US negotiators pressured Kyiv to sign a critical minerals agreement, even suggesting restrictions on Starlink, the SpaceX-owned satellite system, after President Zelensky rejected an initial proposal from the US.
The report sparked controversy, prompting Poland to clarify that it funds Ukraine’s Starlink access and will continue to do so. Since Russia’s invasion, Poland has provided 20,000 Starlink units and covered their maintenance costs, despite reports that the US floated the possibility of cutting access while pushing for a minerals deal.
Musk responded to the report on social media, commenting, “This is false.” While his denial may be correct as far as it goes, it is also true that Musk didn’t try to ease concerns by going beyond his terse reply to offer assurances that the US would not in the future attempt to weaponize US tech against Europe.
That possibility remains, especially as the Trump administration aligns more closely with Vladimir Putin and Putin’s position on Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
On March 5, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski warned that canceling Starlink access for Ukraine would trigger an international crisis with the US. Gawkowski stressed that a move to cut Poland’s Starlink contracts would severely strain relations, stating, “I cannot imagine a situation where a business agreement between Poland and a US company is suddenly interrupted.”
Musk’s role in controlling access to Starlink had sparked controversy earlier. He had admitted to refusing to activate Starlink over Crimea, claiming he wanted to avoid complicity in what he called a “major act of war” as Ukrainian sea drones attempted to strike Russian naval assets.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed that the country is exploring alternatives to Starlink for frontline communications, although details remain undisclosed.
Starlink has acted as the backbone of Ukraine’s frontline communications. At the war’s outset, Russia launched cyberattacks on Viasat to cripple Ukrainian military networks, showing the importance of satellite communications for command and control.
However, to reduce dependence, Ukraine has already been integrating alternative satellite systems like Kymeta for its sea drones.
Andrii Kovalenko of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council stated that the front line is now stocked with fiber-optic cables, high-speed modems and satellite services from Swedish and German providers, for use in the event Starlink goes offline.
Serhiy, a drone unit leader from the 23rd Mechanized Brigade, told me that a shutdown would no longer have the same impact as before, due to improved internet re-transmitters.
Musk’s refusal to activate Starlink for Ukraine’s Black Sea drone operations should have been an early warning for Europe. The continent cannot afford to depend on a system controlled by one individual who has shown a willingness to cut service based on personal whims or political pressure.
Adding fuel to the dumpster fire, Musk took to social media to advocate for the US to withdraw from NATO.
The gun isn’t pointed only at Ukraine. If Russia were to invade Europe – especially the Baltics – there is no guarantee that Musk wouldn’t restrict Starlink access to aid Moscow. Having previously limited access over occupied Crimea, he could do so again, justifying it as a move to prevent nuclear escalation. Trump, after all, has already threatened 25% tariffs on EU imports, claiming the bloc was designed to “screw” the US.
Italy is now reconsidering a €1.5 billion deal with Starlink for military and government use, citing shifting US commitments to the security of Europe including Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Franco-British satellite operator Eutelsat is emerging as a potential alternative for Europe and Ukraine. Eutelsat’s shares have skyrocketed as a result of the rumors. However, it may take years before Eutelsat can match Starlink’s connectivity for both military and civilian use.
Replacing Starlink presents significant logistical and financial challenges. OneWeb, which merged with Eutelsat in 2022, charges approximately $10,000 per terminal, compared with Starlink’s $600 per unit, making widespread adoption a costly endeavor.
Ukraine currently relies on roughly 40,000 Starlink terminals, whereas Eutelsat has only a few thousand in stock and would need to rapidly scale production to meet demand. Compounding the issue, Eutelsat does not manufacture its own terminals, instead relying on industry partners to produce both consumer and military-grade devices.
Meanwhile, Trump attempted to tell Americans to worry less about Putin and more about migrants so the country doesn’t end up like Europe. Once Trump cut off intelligence and military aid to Ukraine, it became clear that his administration would be willing to weaponize whatever it might take to achieve its goals.
This is not the America Europe once knew – and that goes for European populist and nationalist counterparts of Trump. Dutch populist Geert Wilders, affirming his support for Ukraine, called Trump’s Oval Office clash with Zelenskyy “fascinating TV, but not the best way to end the war.”
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen condemned the US aid halt as “brutal” and “cruel,” while Britain’s Nigel Farage criticized Vice President JD Vance for dismissing UK peacekeepers in Ukraine, calling him “wrong, wrong, wrong.”
Europe is now awakening to the reality that American support can no longer be taken for granted. Trump’s disregard for traditional alliances has forced Europe to act with unprecedented urgency.
Ironically, his actions have done more to galvanize European defense efforts than three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now Europe is working to generate €800 billion of additional defense spending in the coming years.
Much of what is spent, of course, will go for military tech. The European Union in 2024 approved a €10.6 billion investment for IRIS² in 2024, a European satellite broadband initiative designed to reduce dependence on US providers. However, cost and time remain significant challenges in Europe’s effort to catch up and establish a more self-sufficient infrastructure.
The only viable path forward is for Europe to reinforce its own defenses while ensuring a strong Ukraine to deter future Russian threats. As the world order fractures, Europe must act faster than ever to secure its future.
David Kirichenko is a Ukrainian-American journalist-activist and an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He can be found on the social media platform X @DVKirichenko.
Everyone is Ukrainian American now. If you don’t want to be dependent on Starlink, build your own. Or better yet, go without. Ask the Indians how they went without toilets. They’ll gladly tell ya.