Russian laughter, European tears

Every day since the US presidential election in November, people have hoped that in office Donald Trump might prove more statesmanlike, more constructive and more coherent than during the election campaign. At his inauguration on January 20, he played to this by claiming to be “a peacemaker and a unifier.”

Yet every day since then has shown this hope to be seriously mistaken.

In fact, he has shown himself to be even worse than his campaign had indicated and to be, clearly, a divider, not a unifier. At home, he is mounting what can only be described as a coup d’etat. Abroad, he is putting American alliances and values “through the wood chipper” – to borrow his crony Elon Musk’s words.

Last week was the most shocking so far, for anyone who believed that under Trump the United States might continue to stand for justice, democracy and national sovereignty – the most shocking especially for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

It was not truly surprising to learn from his US-Russia talks that President Trump believes in a world organized by a small number of great powers, rather than one in which the old tools of rules, alliances of like-minded countries, and political values were what counted.

We knew from his first term in office that he feels more at home talking with dictators such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un than with the leaders of democratic countries.

But what we did not expect was for him to show more sympathy and policy alignment with Russia’s authoritarian president, a man who has his opponents murdered and whose forces have kidnapped tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, than with President Zelensky, even before any proper peace talks have begun.

And the lowest moment of all (so far) was when he accused Zelensky of being “a dictator without elections,” questioning his democratic legitimacy, and excused the real dictator, Putin, for having invaded Russia’s neighbor in the first place.

When he did so, at a news conference, he told lies, of course, but that is normal for him.

He lied that Zelenskyy’s support rating in Ukraine is only 4%, when recent polls place it at nearly 60%.

And he lied that America has spent US$350 billion in military and financial support for Ukraine since the Russian invasion, when the true figure is one-third of that.

More important than the lies, however, is that he claimed that Ukraine needed to hold elections if its government is to be considered democratic and legitimate.

This, too, is a lie, but – even worse – it is a piece of Russian propaganda. The truth is that Ukraine’s Parliament voted last year to postpone presidential elections that had been due in April 2024, because it is impossible to hold elections during a war and when the country is under martial law.

The decision was a democratic one, supported by all political parties. They agreed that elections should be held within six months of an end to martial law.

Some readers may recall that on December 21 I wrote that Zelenskyy might need to make a “final heroic act” by declaring that he would not stand for re-election when a presidential election is finally held. This drew criticism from some eminent Italian commentators, who feared that this was playing into Putin’s hands.

Quite possibly, I did not explain this argument sufficiently clearly: What I was proposing was that Zelenskyy should announce his retirement at the end of peace talks as a final gesture to bring them to a conclusion. I was not suggesting that this should be declared before negotiations have even begun, as Trump has done.

Trump’s attack on Zelenskyy’s legitimacy is now likely to rally more Ukrainian support around him, and makes his departure neither possible nor desirable from a Ukrainian point of view.

Even the Russians are surprised at what Trump has said, and are not shy about showing it. Dimitry Medvedev, a former president who is now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on X that “If you’d told me just three months ago that these were the words of the US president, I would have laughed out loud.”

Three conclusions are inescapable. The first is that European countries and all other allies need to rally to Ukraine’s side, not with vague plans but rapidly and decisively, so as to strengthen its hands when peace talks start.

Ukraine is European, is fighting for Europe’s security and must be protected and embraced by Europeans, to protect it now from the American and Russian monsters.

As Germany will not have a new government for several months after Sunday’s elections, the initiative for this will have to be taken by others, probably Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer. No one expects Italy to step forward, although it would be a pleasant surprise if it did.

The second conclusion is that President Trump thinks not only like an old-fashioned great-power leader, from the era of Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill, but also like a gangster. He attempted an extortion on Ukraine, proposing that it should sign over mineral rights worth US$500 billion in return for its past support, and then got angry when – quite rightly – Ukraine refused.

There is a lesson here for all small and mid-sized countries that have to deal with this American gangster.

The third conclusion is that the international groupings in which the United States has played a central part, such as the G7, NATO and the wider G20, must now act and think as the G6, a non-US NATO and the G19.

This does not mean they should push the United States out, but it does mean that the non-American members need to have separate discussions among themselves so that they can be stronger in the face of American behavior.

This past week, the Trump administration refused to accept a draft G7 statement on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, because it included the phrase “Russian aggression.”

What the other six members (France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Japan and Canada) need to do now is to put out their own separate statement, as in earlier years, telling the truth. Otherwise, Russia will have even more cause for laughter, and the rest of us for tears.

Formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist, Bill Emmott is currently chairman of the Japan Society of the UK, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the International Trade Institute.

Originally published on his substack, Bill Emmott’s Global View, this is the English original of an article published on February 22 in Italian by La Stampa. It is republished here with kind permission.