Japan’s acquisition of stealthy US cruise missiles will markedly enhance its long-range counterstrike capabilities, a key component of the nation’s remilitarization amid rising threats from China and North Korea.
This month, multiple media outlets reported that the US approved the sale of 16 AGM-158B JASSM-ERs (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles-Extended Range) to Japan.
The US$39 million package includes advanced training munitions, anti-jam GPS receivers, support equipment and software, according to the reports. The timing coincides with escalating tensions involving China’s territorial assertiveness and North Korea’s relentless missile provocations.
The JASSM-ER is a highly sophisticated air-launched cruise missile developed by the US Air Force. With a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers—nearly three times that of its predecessor—it is tailored for precision strikes against high-value targets.
The missile is equipped with a 450-kilogram WDU-42/B penetrator warhead guided by INS/GPS systems and an infrared seeker for terminal guidance. Its integration with Japan’s F-15J and F-35 fighters ensures compatibility with advanced platforms, further bolstering its utility.
This acquisition aligns with Japan’s broader defense reforms, as outlined in its 2024 annual defense white paper, which prioritizes the acquisition of standoff capabilities.
These reforms emphasize counterstrike capabilities and enhanced missile systems as vital elements of Japan’s response to evolving regional threats. However, achieving these objectives has significant challenges, particularly in target detection and tracking.
While the JASSM-ER is a formidable asset, analysts like Veerle Nouwens note that Japan’s capability to employ such systems effectively is hindered by gaps in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).
These limitations necessitate continued reliance on US support, as highlighted in a January 2024 International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) report.
The report underscores Japan’s efforts to address ISR gaps through cooperation with the US and investments in commercial satellite imagery, small-satellite constellations and advanced radar systems.
Despite these advancements, Japan’s ability to detect ballistic missile launches still depends on US space-based infrared systems, given the prohibitive costs and technological challenges of developing domestic alternatives.
Recent advancements in Chinese and North Korean missile technology have heightened the stakes. The US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report emphasizes the challenge of China’s hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and fractional orbital bombardment systems (FOBs), which compress adversaries’ response times through rapid maneuverability and speed.
Similarly, North Korea’s increasing reliance on varied launch platforms—including transporter erector launchers (TELs), submarines and railway cars—complicates detection and interception efforts, as noted in a September 2024 briefing by Japan’s Ministry of Defense.
Japan’s push for long-range counterstrike capabilities reveals structural weaknesses in its defense industry. Decades of neglect have hollowed out this critical sector, leaving Japan heavily reliant on foreign technology and imports.
Valerie Insinna, writing for Breaking Defense in June 2024, highlights how over 100 major Japanese defense companies have exited the industry due to poor profit margins and inconsistent government support.
Smaller suppliers, in particular, have struggled to survive amidst budget fluctuations and an aging workforce, exacerbating vulnerabilities in the supply chain.
This fragility forces Japan to depend on the US not only for ISR capabilities but also munitions. However, the US faces its own challenges in ramping up missile production to counter China’s growing firepower.
As noted by Asia Times, aging infrastructure, limited production capacity, and supply chain constraints complicate efforts to scale manufacturing.
Complex technologies like GPS and inertial navigation systems require specialized components and expertise, further hindering timely production.
Budgetary pressures and bureaucratic inefficiencies exacerbate these issues, raising concerns about whether the US can meet its demands, let alone provide adequate support to allies like Japan.
Should a US-China conflict erupt over Taiwan, these constraints could leave Japan scrambling for critical supplies. Gordon Arthur of Defense News argues that Japan’s prolonged reliance on the US has stunted its military development, leaving it incapable of independent operations in most scenarios.
Despite possessing niche capabilities that support US forces, Japan’s military modernization does not correspond to its perception of threats in its current security environment, which its 2024 defense white paper has described as the most severe and complex the nation has faced since World War II.
Japan’s acquisition of long-range counterstrike capabilities has sparked mixed reactions across the Indo-Pacific. Domestically, opinions are sharply divided.
Proponents argue that bolstering Japan’s defense capabilities is essential for addressing threats from China and North Korea. Critics, however, worry that such moves risk a return to militarism, clashing with Japan’s pacifist post-war identity.
Internationally, Japan’s remilitarization has elicited varied responses. Allies like the US welcome the development to boost collective security, particularly in light of China’s growing regional assertiveness.
However, neighboring countries such as China and South Korea view Japan’s actions suspiciously, citing historical grievances and ongoing territorial disputes.
Alan Callow, writing for Asia-Pacific Research in August 2024, notes that these regional tensions underscore the precarious balance Japan must strike between strengthening its defense posture and maintaining diplomatic relations.
Japan’s purchase of JASSM-ER missiles represents a crucial step in modernizing its military and countering regional threats. However, the move also highlights significant vulnerabilities in Japan’s defense industry and its enduring dependence on the US for military support.
Balancing these needs and priorities will be critical as Japan seeks to redefine its role in the Indo-Pacific security landscape.