The Middle East is again in the spotlight, with the latest escalation of violence in Syria feeding the flames. Amid the rising tensions, the problem of terrorism is getting more attention.
According to a report by The Institute for Economics and Peace, violent conflicts continue to be the main cause of terrorism. Last year, for instance, more than 90% of terrorist attacks occurred in war zones, and they were marked by high levels of intensity.
Now, what should we expect in 2025?
The Middle East is increasingly in focus
Over the last decade, the bulk of terrorist activities was concentrated in a small number of countries located in Sub-Saharan and North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
Until recently, Sub-Saharan Africa had suffered the greatest death toll from terrorism. Although the number of attacks dropped last year, lethality from terrorist activity jumped by more than 20%. In South Asia, the situation is mirror-opposite in two of the traditionally most terrorism-affected countries. While Afghanistan saw a significant drop in the number of deaths and incidents, Pakistan recorded almost 500 incidents last year.
The Middle East had witnessed relative improvement during the previous years, but the deadly October 7th Hamas assault broke that trend. Furthermore, the rising tensions in the Middle East heightened the possibility of more terror attacks in the region.
Ashton Packe, a law enforcement veteran and the owner of US-based Vanguard Intelligence Group, has pointed out that the Middle East and Israel will face the most issues in 2025, adding that terrorism is and will remain a global issue.
“Their war with Iran will continue, and I foresee Iran continuing to use proxy forces such as Hamas and Hezbollah, or even individuals who may unwittingly carry out attacks on behalf of the Government of Iran,” he told this author.
“Although much of these organizations have been decimated by [Israeli Defense Forces] and Western intelligence agencies in the past year, their ideologies and hatred live on,” Packe said.
“Once the major military operations cease, trying to switch gears into countering the ideological narratives of the terrorist organizations would be key to actually trying to prevent attacks before they occur. But this is much easier said than done, as the money these organizations make and the power they wield is impressive to say the least.”
A growing threat of low-key attacks
Terrorists’ selection of tactics depends on the goal and on the environment in which they operate, their possible choices including suicide bombings and assassinations, stabbings and armed attacks.
ISIS and its affiliates, for instance, opt for armed assaults and explosive attacks. While the group’s activity has notably decreased since its peak in 2016, it is still considered the most dangerous terrorist group in the world. Hamas, responsible for the October 7 terrorist attacks, employs advanced technologies and shows a high level of attack preparation.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the third-deadliest terrorist organization, operates mostly in war zones. With the military being its primary target, JNIM largely favors armed attacks. In Mali, the group capitalizes on economic woes, recruiting new members among disenchanted populations. Another jihadist group, Somalia-based Al-Shabaab, most often uses bombings to achieve its goals.
“The question or issue to consider is: Where are terrorism attacks expected (places like the Middle East and Israel) versus where are they not expected (places like the US, Asia, and Western Europe)?” Packe noted.
He said terrorists’ attacks could see a shift from the “spectacular 9/11-style ones that shock the conscience” to include
- more low-key attacks that are difficult for law enforcement to thwart,” for example, less involved parties utilizing encrypted advanced technology;
- targeted assassinations – take the case of “President Trump coming so close to being murdered despite the best security apparatus to ever exist guarding him,” a case that is “closely studied” by terrorist organizations; and
- low-tech attacks that rely on people, often mentally ill, to “do what you can, wherever you are at, with what you have.”
What the international community can do
Western nations have made considerable progress in their fight against global terrorism. In September 2014, the 87-member Global Coalition against Daesh was established with the aim of degrading the Islamic State’s capabilities. Not limited to military campaigns, the Coalition’s activity spans the disruption of terrorist financing and economic infrastructure.
In the EU, the main success in a counter-terrorism policy was harmonizing legal frameworks in all member states. With common standards established for offenses related to terrorism, Europe is now much better prepared for combating different aspects of terrorist activities, including online propaganda and terrorism financing.
Still, there is much work to be done. Western nations should place a greater emphasis on developing regional and bilateral partnerships with countries most affected by terrorism. Nigel Howard from King’s College London suggests that the EU should play a greater role in developing regional intelligence centers, such as the African Center for the Study and Research on Terrorism.
However, the most pressing task is enhancing intelligence sharing, both multilateral and bilateral. This is all the more important given that present-day terrorist threats are more amorphous and increasingly associated with violent conflicts. A successful example to follow is Operation Gallant Phoenix, a US-led multinational initiative. Launched in 2013, the intelligence fusion center is designed to collect and share intelligence, including from the Middle East, to combat foreign fighters and terrorist networks.
“My fear,” Packe said, “is if the Iranian regime feels like they are against the proverbial ropes and the theocracy is at risk of collapse, they could attempt to unleash a network of attacks by supporters and members who are dispersed across the globe.”
This shows how critical is”intelligence sharing by the intelligence community, Western militaries and international law enforcement,” he said. “The relationships, treaties and pacts amongst the Western and developing nations must be forged and solidified long before the threats emerge, which hasn’t always been our strong suit here in the US.”