Overview:
The fall of Bashar al-Assad has sparked a fierce geopolitical battle, as various regional and global powers vie for influence over Syria's future. From the U.S. advocating for democracy to regional rivals like Turkey and Saudi Arabia backing competing factions, the nation’s fragmented future poses both opportunities and threats. The ultimate challenge will be the reconstruction of Syria amid sectarian tensions, extremist threats and the shifting interests of global powers.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has triggered a sudden, profound and complex shift in the Middle East, setting off a high-stakes race for power and influence over the nation’s future that will have far-reaching implications for the region’s geopolitics and stability.
The fragmented Syria that emerges from Assad’s demise offers both opportunities and risks, as regional powers with conflicting interests maneuver to fill the power vacuum and shape the country’s next government.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Turkey and Qatar are all no doubt eager to assert their influence. Each nation has its own vision for Syria’s future, influenced by broader regional goals and ideological stances.
For Egypt and the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the primary concern is preventing the rise of Islamist groups they see as a threat to their own regimes.
These countries have long viewed the Muslim Brotherhood as an existential threat, and in post-Assad Syria, they are likely to support rebel factions that can curb the influence of such Islamist groups. Their goal is to shape Syria in a direction that reflects their own authoritarian models, which are hostile to political Islam.
In contrast, Turkey and Qatar have been long-time supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates. They will push for a Syria that accommodates groups sympathetic to their cause.
Turkey, which is heavily involved in the Syrian conflict, will prioritize countering Kurdish influence and will continue to back rebel factions with Islamist leanings. This could lead to an uneasy alliance of Islamist and nationalist forces aligned with Turkey’s broader regional objectives.
What Israel and the US want
Israel, which has long sought to weaken Assad’s regime and its allies, particularly Iran and Hezbollah, will welcome Assad’s fall. However, Israel would prefer that Syria remain divided, with no strong central government and competing rebel factions, as the emergence of a unified and hostile neighbor on its border would pose another threat to its security.
Israel will likely maintain covert operations in Syria, targeting any remaining Iranian and Hezbollah assets as well as any factions that pose a perceived threat.
It is also expected to continue its military presence in the region, particularly along the Golan Heights, to ensure that no single group – whether a rebel faction or a pro-Iranian proxy – can consolidate power and threaten Israeli interests.
The United States has its own set of priorities in post-Assad Syria, primarily focused on maintaining a foothold in the region and advancing its ideological goals.
Washington has been a strong supporter of Kurdish-led forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The US sees them as crucial allies in the fight against ISIS and as part of its broader efforts to promote liberal democratic values in the Middle East.
However, the US will face a delicate balancing act. While it advocates for a Syria governed by democratic principles, the presence of Islamist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) complicates this vision. The US will likely continue to back groups that can resist Islamism, even if some of these groups, like the SDF, are viewed as adversaries by regional actors such as Turkey.
The future of US involvement in Syria will be shaped by the need to prevent the resurgence of ISIS or similar extremist groups. With Assad gone and Russia preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, the US may seek to strengthen its influence over Syria’s political future, though it will face significant challenges amid the country’s fractured landscape and competing interests of multiple global and regional players.
As the euphoria of Assad’s downfall gives way to the reality of rebuilding Syria, the challenges will be immense. Rebuilding the country will require not just military victories but also economic reconstruction, political transition and social reconciliation. With multiple factions, deep sectarian divisions and the threat of extremist groups like ISIS, the path to stability will be fraught with difficulties.
Western nations, particularly the US, are likely to be called upon for assistance in Syria’s rebuilding efforts, but this support will be contingent on the political direction the country takes.
The key question is whether Syria will embrace liberal values, as the West hopes, or move toward Islamist governance. The direction taken by Syria’s new leadership, which may be dominated by groups like HTS, will play a crucial role in shaping the country’s future.
Sanctions, diplomacy and the new reality
One of the most pressing issues will be how the international community engages with Syria’s new rulers.
Many of the factions now in control, especially those linked to HTS, are considered terrorist organizations by the US and its allies. This presents a significant challenge for the US: how to balance the need for stabilization with the desire to avoid empowering forces viewed as terrorists.
The geopolitical contest in Syria will also involve Russia and Iran, whose influence in the country has been significantly reduced by the Assad regime’s sudden collapse. Russia, distracted by the Ukraine war, will likely be less able to assert its power in Syria.
Iran’s position will also be weaker and it will need to recalibrate its strategy, possibly by supporting certain rebel factions or negotiating with the new political authorities in Damascus.
While the fall of Assad marks a historic moment, Syria’s future remains highly uncertain. The true test will be how the country rebuilds politically, economically and socially.
Regional and global powers are positioning to shape those outcomes, a contest that could further destabilize the nation. What is clear, though, is that the road ahead will be turbulent, with power struggles to come both within Syria and across the broader Middle East.