South Korea plunging toward an even deeper political crisis

SEOUL – South Korea is tilting toward a knock-on political crisis after last weekend’s impeachment motion failed to knock President Yoon Suk Yeol from power for his short-lived shock declaration of martial law.

Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the December 7 vote, allowing for the president’s survival. The Democratic Party-led opposition, however, has promised to continue filing impeachment motions until Yoon is deposed, with the next expected this weekend.

In a bid to calm the situation, PPP chairman Han Dong-hoon and Prime Minister Han Duk-soo issued a rather bizarre joint statement after the failed impeachment vote promising Yoon’s “orderly early resignation.” The statement said, “Even before leaving office, the president will not engage in state affairs, including diplomacy.”

While Yoon deferred decisions about his tenure and the country’s stabilization to his party in a December 7 address, there was no indication that he actually handed control over government matters to the Han-Han duo. Instead, the president said, “Our party and the government will together take responsibility for future state affairs,” he said.

South Korea’s constitution does not grant the ruling party chair the authority to delegate governing powers to the prime minister—or to himself—until the president either resigns or is formally removed from office. Only when the president is incapacitated or otherwise unable to perform their duties can the prime minister take over.

So, what exactly is Han Dong-hoon thinking? While his exact motivations remain unclear, it appears Han is buying time to assess the most strategic exit plan for both his party and the president.

At the moment, three institutions—each asserting authority over the matter—have launched investigations into the legality of Yoon’s martial law declaration. For Yoon, retaining the presidency offers greater leverage and protection as the probes proceed. A sitting president is immune from criminal prosecution unless the offense involves treason.

Even though Yoon can theoretically be tried for treason, it presents a higher burden of proof for prosecutors and police. Therefore, Han will likely continue to oppose Yoon’s impeachment, acknowledging that it would curtail the president’s leverage and likewise cause significant harm to the PPP.

Instead, Han is proposing Yoon’s “early resignation” while refraining from providing details on the timing or process. That vagueness grants the ruling party the flexibility to assess the evolving situation and craft a calculated response.

This “time-delay” tactic would also keep Yoon in power and postpone the next presidential election. A hastily held election would position Lee Jae-myung, the presumptive nominee from the opposition Democratic Party, as the frontrunner—an outcome conservatives are keen to avoid.

Lee is facing growing legal woes of his own, and the longer Yoon stays in office, the more trouble they could create for the opposition leader.

A critical question concerns how long Han can sustain such a peculiar governing situation, which some legal experts argue is unconstitutional and the opposition has likened to a second coup. The likely answer is not too long.

Even as Han extends his ambiguous position, investigative pressures continue to mount. Already, former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun—a central figure in Yoon’s shortlived martial law decree—has been has been indicted, with a court issuing an arrest warrant against him on December 10. 

Meanwhile, the Justice Ministry has imposed travel restrictions on Yoon, and the police have not ruled out an emergency arrest of the president if necessary. The prosecution has officially listed Yoon as a suspect, and their investigation into the president is expected to ramp up in the coming days.

Legislative scrutiny will also build. The main opposition Democratic Party has vowed to persist in pushing an impeachment motion against Yoon until it passes. The next attempt is expected this Saturday (December 14).

On Tuesday, opposition parties also passed a permanent special counsel bill to investigate Yoon’s treason charges, garnering unexpected backing from ruling PPP members.

As Yoon’s approval ratings plunge to 11%, seven in 10 South Koreans now support Yoon’s removal.

For Han–whose current gambit edges on unconstitutionality– supporting Yoon’s impeachment may prove more strategically viable than pushing for his early resignation. If the president were forced to resign under mounting public, political and legal pressures, he would be stripped of all power immediately.

An election must be held within 60 days of a presidential vacancy, and with Lee Jae-myung currently leading in hypothetical polls, that would spell big trouble for the PPP. More critically for Han, there is growing momentum within the party to oust its leader, who lacks both a seat in parliament and a loyal faction.

On the other hand, an impeachment process could face significant delays, as it remains uncertain whether the current six-member Constitutional Court will even agree to hear the case. Even if the court accepts it, past impeachment proceedings suggest the process could take anywhere from 63 to 91 days. 

However, a charge of high-burden-of-proof treason could significantly extend the proceedings, for which the Constitutional Court would have a maximum 180 days to render its decision.

This option also presents a more reasonable path forward and allows Yoon’s camp to defend his case before the judges, whereas his resignation could be interpreted as a tacit admission of guilt. While the court deliberates, Yoon, a former prosecutor general, will retain his title as president.

It is also entirely possible that the president could be acquitted of the charges, as some legal experts remain skeptical that Yoon’s martial law declaration rises to the level of treason under local law. 

Kenji Yoshida is a translator and Seoul-based correspondent for Japan Forward