SEOUL – With impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s fate hinging on a pending Constitutional Court decision, speculation is rising about possible new presidential elections in South Korea.
If the court upholds parliament’s impeachment motion earlier this month and formally unseats Yoon in the weeks ahead, South Koreans would head to the polls within 60 days to vote in a new national leader.
In that scenario, opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung would be the apparent front-runner at 37%, according to a Gallup Korea poll conducted between December 17-19 on “future political leader” preferences.
He’s trailed widely by Han Dong-hoon, the recently displaced ruling People Power Party leader, and Hong Joon-pyo, the flamboyant conservative mayor of Daegu, both of whom notched just 5% on the same Gallup Korea poll.
While South Korean politics are notoriously unpredictable, Yoon’s increasingly likely ouster would seemingly pave the way to a new leftist leader’s election.
Recent history points in that direction. In May 2017, leftist Moon Jae-in secured a decisive victory in an early presidential election following the sudden downfall of rightist President Park Geun-hye.
But this time around, Yoon’s right-wing fall is no guarantee of Lee’s left-wing rise. That’s because opposition leader Lee is grappling with legal woes of his own that would present significant hurdles to a potential presidential bid.
In November, Lee was convicted of violating election laws, a decision that, if upheld by the Supreme Court before the next presidential election, would bar him from running.
Under the Public Official Election Act, rulings in the second and third trials of election violation cases must be issued within three months of the previous court sentence.
This means the appeals court hearing Lee’s case must rule within three months of the trial court’s decision on November 15. If Lee chooses to appeal that decision, the Supreme Court will have another three months to decide his final fate.
Although this timeline has been loosely observed in the past, it is expected to be enforced more rigorously following the Chief Supreme Court Justice’s directive in September.
Should Yoon fall, the timing of the Constitutional Court’s ruling could set the stage for a presidential election as early as April or May next year. As such, Lee is working to delay his trial proceedings while maneuvering for Yoon’s court-ordered ouster.
On December 18, after two failed attempts, the appeals court finally delivered a notice of receipt of the litigation records to Lee. He now has 20 days to submit a statement of appeal for his election law violation conviction.
The first delivery attempt failed when Lee moved homes, leaving his new address unclear. A second attempt was unsuccessful due to the recipient’s absence.
The latest attempt succeeded only after the court dispatched an execution officer to hand-deliver the documents to Lee’s office in Yeouido. Without the notice, the appeal process could not proceed.
Lee is also facing a third-party bribery trial where the presidential aspirant is accused of requesting Ssangbangwool Group, a South Korean underwear company, to illicitly funnel US$8 million to North Korea to facilitate his planned visit to Pyongyang while serving as Gyeonggi Province’s governor.
In June, a former deputy governor of Gyeonggi Province was sentenced to nine and a half years in connection with the case. That same month, Lee was indicted and has since been rebuked for allegedly deliberately delaying court proceedings.
Earlier this month, Lee’s legal team filed a motion to recuse judges presiding over his case. Prosecutors have criticized the motion, warning it will cause “unprecedented delays” to the trial. An appeals court recently affirmed the ex-deputy governor’s guilty verdict.
If Lee is convicted of third-party bribery, it would deliver a major blow to his political reputation and further undermine his chances of winning the presidency, especially as he remains entangled in three other criminal trials.
While strategically prolonging his own legal fights, Lee is bidding to expedite Yoon’s impeachment trial—and for good reason. With his leftist rival, Cho Kuk, now imprisoned and the ruling People Power Party in utter disarray, Yoon’s ouster would create an unobstructed path for him to take power.
Previously hesitant, Lee and his camp are now desperately moving to fill three vacant seats on the Constitutional Court. Currently, the court is operating with a six-member panel after three of the justices’ tenure expired in October.
It has decided to hear the president’s impeachment case with its present composition but a unanimous vote will be required to remove Yoon. If the court were fully staffed, then at least six of nine votes would be needed for his ouster.
Complicating matters for Lee is that Yoon’s appointee, Justice Cheong Hyungsik, is the presiding and commissioned justice to handle his impeachment case.
Two justices are considered liberal, three lean center-right and Cheong is firmly right-wing. If even one justice rejects parliament’s impeachment motion, Yoon, now suspended from his presidential duties, will be reinstated.
The three vacant seats up for nomination by parliament have thus become hot political bargaining chips. By sending two more liberal-leaning justices to the bench, the opposition hopes to boost the chances of Yoon’s removal from office.
The process, however, could take weeks and will require an acting president’s appointment.
To be fair, the opposition leader is not the only one tactically slowing his trial. Yoon and his legal team have also employed what critics see as an arsenal of judicial “delay tactics.”
Despite the president’s insistence on his innocence and public confidence in confronting his legal battles head-on, he has reportedly refused to accept documents and orders from the Constitutional Court.
But on Monday, the court’s spokesperson announced that the trial would proceed regardless, with the first hearing against the former public prosecutor general now set for December 27.
From Yoon’s short-lived martial law decree to his subsequent impeachment by parliament to Lee’s own colorful legal troubles, South Korea has been jolted by a series of dramatic events in recent weeks with likely more political shock and awe on the horizon.