MANILA – Weeks away from Donald Trump’s second inauguration, tensions are reaching a fever-pitch in the hotly contested South China Sea, a strategic theater the incoming US leader could intensify or ease depending on his eventual approach toward China.
The Philippines and China are once again at loggerheads over the long-contested Scarborough Shoal, with their maritime forces coming perilously close to yet another near-clash in the disputed waters.
Last week, Chinese coastguard vessels fired water cannon and side-swiped a ship from the Philippines’ Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), which is tasked with surveying and securing Philippine fishery resources in the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
The near-clashes also involved a dangerous encounter between a Chinese navy vessel and Philippine coastguard counterparts, which, according to Philippine official sources, faced, “blocking, shadowing and dangerous maneuvers” from the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) vessel.
China’s Coast Guard maintained that its actions were “professional, standardized, legitimate and lawful” and quickly shifted the blame by maintaining “the responsibility lies entirely with the Philippine side.”
“China implemented control measures against Philippine ships that attempted to intrude into the territorial waters of China’s Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal],” China’s coast guard claimed.
Prominent Chinese experts were also quick to play down the latest incident. “The Philippines is trying to stoke the South China Sea issue by constantly creating trouble so as to accumulate new discourse materials for the cognitive war of building the “China threat” rhetoric,” Ding Duo, a deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies was quoted saying by the Global Times state mouthpiece.
For China’s maritime forces, they simply undertook routine operations and “necessary control measures” to protect the Asian power’s maritime claims based on the so-called “nine-dash line,” a sprawling map that was rejected as “illegal” by an international court at The Hague under the auspices of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 2016.
China rejected the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, which lacked an enforcement mechanism.
“We consider that a steep escalation on the part of the People’s Republic of China,” Jonathan Malaya, a Philippine National Security Council spokesperson, told the media, underscoring the growing sense of alarm in the Philippines.
The Philippines also warned that it reserves the right to respond accordingly with more decisive measures. For his part, Philippine Navy Vice Admiral Jose Ma Ambrosio Ezpeleta has raised the possibility of employing its own “gray zone” strategy against China while doubling down on its conventional military capabilities in tandem with allies.
The Philippines’ key allies were quick to express support and, accordingly, condemn China’s latest actions.
“Yet another concerning report of dangerous actions by Chinese vessels against Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal. Such actions raise tensions and the risk of miscalculation. [Britain] urges adherence to International Law and underlines the primacy of UNCLOS,” the UK Ambassador to Manila, Laure Beaufils, said on her X account.
Japan’s ambassador to Manila, Endo Kazuya, criticized China’s “use of water cannon and obstructive maneuvers undermine the safety of ship and crew” and reiterated that “Japan upholds the rule of law and opposes any actions which increase tensions.”
“Dangerous actions against PCG and BFAR ships undermine stability and security in the Indo-Pacific. [Germany] recalls UNCLOS and the 2016 arbitrary award and calls for the respect to international law,” German Ambassador Andreas Pfaffernoschke, who has overseen a major expansion in bilateral security relations in the past year, wrote on his X account.
Meanwhile, US Ambassador MaryKay Carlson condemned China’s “unlawful use of water cannons and dangerous maneuvers disrupted a Philippine maritime operation on December 4, putting lives at risk.” She reiterated that the US will stand with its treaty ally in defense of a rules-based order in the region.
The new tensions coincided with the Philippines’ latest joint naval drills with Japan and the US in the South China Sea. The drills brought together the Philippine Navy ship BRP Andres Bonifacio and a C-90 small plane, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft and Japan’s Murasame-class destroyer JS Samidare.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the US Indo-Pacific Command described their latest drills as “consistent with international law, and with due regard for the safety of navigation, and the rights and interests of other states.” The allies emphasized the need to “uphold the right to freedom of navigation and overflight [and] other lawful uses of the sea and international airspace.”
It’s not clear what is exactly driving China’s latest actions. But some experts sense that the Asian superpower is intent on creating favorable conditions on the ground and a sufficient degree of dominance before dealing with an incoming Trump 2.0 administration, which may adopt either a more hawkish or transactional approach based on the balance of forces on the ground.
A similar yet more dangerous scramble has already been taking place in Ukraine as both Kyiv and Moscow seek to shape the terms of any eventual “peace deal” under Trump.
China also seems troubled with Manila’s foreign policy direction in recent years under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, most notably his government’s decision to host, if not acquire, the US state-of-the-art Typhon missile system, currently positioned in a northern Philippine province facing Taiwan.
In a recent editorial, the state-backed China Daily accused the Philippines of provocation, saying, “The mid-range missile launch system, which is capable of firing both Tomahawk cruise missiles and the SM-6 surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, is aggressive in intent as it puts not only southern Chinese military bases within range, but also the Taiwan Strait, and a large part of the South China Sea.”
For the Philippines, on the other hand, the status quo is increasingly unsustainable. It’s now mulling the deployment of naval assets for routine patrol missions, a muscular move that could spark new tensions and draw a more forceful response from China’s far larger navy.
Meanwhile, Vice Admiral Ezpeleta has also floated the possibility of using unconventional tactics to better defend Philippine claims.
“We have to support the actions of our white ships, such as our coastguard. Another [method] is we have to enhance our maritime domain awareness,” the navy chief said at a recent Senate hearing.
“I would also like to say that building friends with our allied countries or our like-minded navies is also one way of leveraging. We have a lot of efforts, especially in our modernization, let’s say for deterrence purposes.”
The Philippine naval chief refused to provide more details on the country’s next moves. Similar to India, which has been engaged in various clashes with Chinese forces in disputed territories in the Himalayas, the Philippines might consider the use of physical force sans weapons to resist harassment by Chinese marine forces.
It may also consider relying on more auxiliary forces as well as expanded support from more civil society missions to the disputed areas.
Heavier reliance on drones, large transport ships and fast patrol boats is also likely under consideration to sustain Philippine resupply missions that China has previously harassed in disputed waters. The option of welcoming direct joint patrols and an expanded over-the-horizon American military presence is also known to be on the table.
Ultimately, however, the Philippines will likely rely on support from its major allies, most notably the US. Indeed, Manila is expected to press the incoming Trump 2.0 administration for greater mutual defense treaty assurances in the event of a contingency as well as the transfer of high-tech weapons systems like the Typhon.
Until Trump is in charge, Philippine authorities are intent on holding the line to prevent China from occupying more territory Manila claims as part of its EEZ.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @RichHeydarian
You are farting into the wind.
There is a reason he’s called Winnie Xi Pooh….
Suck it all in BigCapon.
In other words, the rats will keep scurrying and calling for their big brothers’ help to provoke China. They seem to forget that China holds the leverage in the escalation ladder. Getting into one with China is a suicide and we’ll see how many will bleed for the Pinoys when the time comes.
Charlie Chan is that you ?