China is now alarmed that the US and Japan are planning to put HIMARS in the Nansei (Ryukyu) islands close to Taiwan. My colleagues and I proposed that deployment two years ago in newspaper articles, on videos and in a book, edited by Lieutenant General Earl Hailston (USMC, retired) and myself, called Stopping a Taiwan Invasion.
In the latest news, published first by the Kyodo News Service, Japan has now agreed to the deployment on Yonaguni and the Biden administration has acquiesced to proposals made by the US Marines.
How to defend Taiwan from a threatened Taiwan invasion is a non-trivial military problem. Taiwan is close to the Chinese mainland and China has overwhelming force. But China, too, has a couple of problems. On the tactical level, China would have to send troops to invade Taiwan. It can do so with paratroopers, but that tactic can be stopped by Taiwan’s military. Or it can send an invasion force by sea, something it has been practicing to do.
HIMARS with ATACMS can be used to strike invasion ships. The range of ATACMS (190 miles) is more than double the distance of Yonaguni from Taiwan, and covers the main routes the Chinese can use to launch an operation.
The US decided to send ATACMS to Ukraine, authorizing strikes on Russian territory. This will have almost no real military impact in a land war because the Russians have learned how to intercept ATACMS strikes fairly efficiently. In the first dozen or so ATACMS launches in Kursk and elsewhere on Russia’s territory, not much has been achieved other than to anger the Russians. The Ukrainian result therefore is quite poor, and it wastes ATACMS missiles.
The missiles are in short supply. For example, Taiwan ordered both HIMARS and ATACMS and has only now been getting a few after long delays. We don’t know what is in reserve in the Pacific, but one could guess that the administration is taking a huge risk supplying ATACMS and HIMARS to Ukraine. As this is written, Russia says it has destroyed five HIMARS launchers in Ukraine, probably more than have arrived in Taiwan to date. (So far, 11 HIMARS launchers have been approved for Taiwan, with additional orders expected.)
Washington needs to get its act in order regarding Ukraine. Ukraine is marginal to US long term interests as it has no direct political, economic or military importance to US security. Taiwan and Japan, as well as Korea, are entirely different matters, as Pacific security is important to checking Chinese power, supporting US economic interests, and demonstrating we can protect allies and friends where concrete interests are at stake.
The question is, do we have enough supplies of vital equipment to deter China?
Below is my 2022 article published on Weapons and Strategy:
Yonaguni and HIMARS
A Bridge too far for Biden?
December 29, 2022
Yonaguni is a small island, part of the Ryukyus island chain, that is close to Taiwan. In our book Stopping a Taiwan Invasion we suggested putting HIMARS on Yonaguni. It seems the Biden administration, despite support from the Marines, is opposing HIMARS for Yonaguni. That has left the Marines out of the picture for the moment. Japan, however, wants to stay in the game and is increasingly worried that China will not only attack Taiwan, but will also try and take over the thinly defended Ryukyus islands. This would give China an important strategic advantage, controlling not only vital sea lines of communications, but confronting US Air Force and Marine operations on Okinawa.
HIMARS is a highly accurate multiple launch missile system based on wheeled vehicles, so it can shoot and scoot. It has proven effective and lethal in the Ukraine war. The Russians have had major problems trying to counter HIMARS and, despite their claims, it seems they have succeeded in hitting few, if any, of the deployed HIMARS launchers.
HIMARS can also hit moving targets including ships at sea, meaning that HIMARS could play an important role in destroying Chinese forces invading Taiwan. For China to be successful it has to launch a massive amphibious assault. While HIMARS can’t do it alone — Taiwan will deploy its air force and shore based defenses (and has also ordered HIMARS although none have yet been delivered) — it can create major problems for a Chinese-launched invasion.
Japan does not have HIMARS. It does have a tracked multiple launched rocket system, but Japan’s system would need to be upgraded to handle HIMARS rockets, especially the all-important long range HIMARS rocket known as ATACMS (MGM-140). The immediate problem is that ATACMS is out of production and existing ATACMS are undergoing a life extension program.
ATACMS has a range of 190 miles. Yonaguni is only 67 miles from Taiwan and the range of ATACMS is ideal for knocking out a Chinese amphibious attack.
The US plans to replace ATACMS with a new long range missile designated as Long Range Precision Fire (PrSM). But PrSM won’t be available until 2023 and will not be fully capable until 2025. This leaves a two-fold gap — a gap in existing stocks, insufficient for a major contingency, and a gap in product replacement.
The Japanese currently intend to put modern air defenses on Yonaguni and also will deploy Type 12 anti-ship missiles. These missiles can be launched from ships or from the ground. They have significant range (that can be extended to 185 miles). While liquid fueled they are cannister launched, making rapid response possible. The Type 12 is not as good as HIMARS ATACMS, but it puts a capability on Yonaguni that is badly needed.
It isn’t clear why the Biden administration decided against the recommendation of the Marines to put HIMARS units on Yonaguni. There is a growing suspicion that Biden is trying to go soft on China and is also delaying the delivery of essential war material to Taiwan. While the administration announces new arms sales for Taiwan, the latest this week, it then “discovers” there are unanticipated delays. Even the new F-16s for Taiwan are delayed and no one knows if, and when, they will be delivered to the island.
Meanwhile, Japan has picked up the ball as best it can. For the first time Japan is significantly upping its defense expenditures and it is stepping up political contacts with Taiwan, much to the chagrin of China.
In March, 2018 then-Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko visited Yonaguni for the first time, in order to “wave at” Taiwan. Their joint visit was an important signal to Japan’s government. It has taken four years and a growingly powerful and threatening China to move Japan to take steps to protect itself and its interests and, most of all, not to depend on the United States. Emperor Akihito resigned in April, 2019 because of failing health. Now 89 years old, he ought to be pleased to see that Yonaguni will not only be defended, but it will help Japan strengthen its defenses in this troubled region.
This leaves the Biden administration with a policy that looks like a not-so-silent retreat. This is bad news for Taiwan, for Japan and for regional security.
Stephen Bryen is a senior Asia Times correspondent who formerly served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article was first published on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy and is republished with permission.
Americans already militarily OBSOLETE, and can’t even defend themselves from HYPERSONIC missiles, wants to “defend” Taiwan with their IGNORANCE. American’s over-confidence with their incompetence is something BOTH China and Russia are counting own. Americans might NOT even get to celebrate their SHORT 250 year birthday.
Of all the people, the Japanese should have known first hand that this remote islands strategy is a loser strategy. Hard to supply, to resupply, to defend, and to station. Had Japan learned from their Mariana Islands defeats? Who will man these missiles? The Americans? No kidding. The Taiwanese? No way. The Japanese? Of course.
What a delusional guy. What does Japan and Korea have to do with US interests except for imperialism??? Taiwan is none of US nor Japanese business. And this is silly thinking some HIMARS could stop China first blockading (which is what they would do). But yeah typical neo-con. Since Russia isn’t as economically strong – they want to divide and rule. You think China won’t go full force for the same reason Russia is stopping Ukraine from joining NATO??? Full of delusion. You also might want to check why Russia and China did another joint bomber patrol over the Sea of Japan a few days ago
They are desperately attempting to compensate for their inferiority in logistics in the Asia Pacific region. The same thing in Ukraine. NATO has inferior logistics over there.
This island idea is US military industrial complex thinking where they get to sell a lot of equipment to the US or Taiwan taxpayer. Any clown that has watched the Snake Island fighting in Ukraine knows on such a small piece of real estate there is no hiding from a few medium range missiles. They will flatten anything on or in the Island in minutes.
Don’t deflate the high hopes of some around here. Maybe a Ghost of Yonaguni will appear out of nowhere and shoot down 200 of 100 Chinese planes down in a few hours.
Yonaguni Island, at 11.15 square miles there is not much room to move. I don’t believe China will invade Taiwan, for the simple reason that a blockade would achieve the objective of bringing them to heel at less cost. But if they did decide on invasion, they wouldn’t attempt it without air superiority first. A little island like Yonaguni would be very exposed.
Its not that it is too late. HIMARS is ineffective, as NATO junk has proven overrated in the NATO manufactured conflict in Ukraine. The Russians have over the course of the conflict, neutered its efficacy with advanced jamming. HIMARS relies on GPS guidance, the Russians have almost 100% hit rates in bringing them down. I’m sure they will be kind enough to share that data with the Chinese, if they have not done so already.
Yeah I laughed when I read it. Russia and China just did another joint bomber patrol in the Sea of Japan 2 days ago. Of course they would share methods on defeating HIMARS