South Korea’s newly unveiled supersonic cruise missile, known generically as the “Air-to-Ship Guided Missile II”, sends a bold and deliberate message to North Korea, underscoring Seoul’s escalating deterrence strategy amid rising regional tensions.
This month, Naval News reported that South Korea’s Agency for Defense Development (ADD) displayed a model of the missile at the 2024 Sacheon Airshow.
The weapon is designed to travel at Mach 2.5 (approximately 3,000 kilometers per hour) and strike targets over 300 kilometers away. The missile aims to enhance South Korea’s FA-50 light combat aircraft and KF-21 Boramae fighter strike capabilities.
The Naval News report mentions the missile features a ducted ramjet propulsion system for high- and low-altitude flight, a modular design for multirole missions and a dual seeker system combining radar and electro-optical seekers.
The ongoing project, involving domestic defense companies like Hanwha Aerospace, includes three flight tests starting in 2025. South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Promotion Committee has reviewed and approved the project, which is expected to run from 2026 to 2035, and has a budget of approximately US$420 million.
The missile’s successful integration with the FA-50 and KF-21 could open export opportunities, particularly for countries like Poland and the Philippines. The limitations of subsonic cruise missiles, glaringly seen in the ongoing Ukraine war, may have sparked South Korea’s interest in developing supersonic cruise missiles.
In a January 2024 Indian Defense Research Wing article, Raunak Kunde mentions that Russian subsonic cruise missiles have faced interception rates exceeding 60% in Ukraine, significantly reducing their effectiveness against heavily defended targets.
In contrast, Kunde says supersonic missiles such as India’s Brahmos boast interception success rates below 10%, with advanced software potentially lowering it to under 5%.
Considering the limitations of subsonic cruise missiles, South Korea may have developed the new supersonic missiles in response to North Korea’s evolving and improving air defenses.
In a July 2024 article for 38 North, Tianran Xu mentions that North Korea has made significant efforts to modernize its land-based air defense systems to address vulnerabilities to US and South Korean air strikes.
Despite relying on obsolete Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles (SAM) like the S-75 and S-125, North Korea has made significant recent upgrades by including adding infrared seekers and enhancing mobility.
Xu says North Korea’s introduction of the Lightning-5 (KN-06) SAM, resembling Russia’s fearsome S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile system, marked a substantial improvement in range and multi-target engagement, though its deployment remains uncertain.
He notes that the Meteor-1-2 SAM, tested multiple times since 2021, features advanced twin-rudder control technology and a dual-impulse flight engine, potentially offering greater range and maneuverability.
However, Xu points out that outdated radar and fire control technologies limit the overall effectiveness of these systems. He says North Korea’s air defense modernization is ongoing, but significant challenges remain in achieving a robust, integrated network capable of countering evolving aerial threats.
The timing of South Korea’s unveiling of its new supersonic cruise missile may aim to send a message to North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine war.
Asia Times previously mentioned that North Korea has intensified its involvement in the Ukraine war, becoming the first foreign government to deploy uniformed troops to support Russia. Ukrainian and South Korean officials report that North Korean military engineers are aiding Russia with ballistic missile targeting while North Korean troops train alongside Russian forces, marking an unprecedented escalation.
Ukraine has responded by targeting ammunition depots supplied by North Korea, including strikes in Sergeevka and Mariupol. Declassified US intelligence confirms that North Korean missiles, such as the KN-23 and KN-24, have been used against Ukrainian infrastructure. North Korea has reportedly supplied over a million artillery rounds to Russia since the conflict began in 2022.
Aside from ballistic missiles and artillery munitions, The War Zone reported this month that a recent photo has surfaced showing North Korean M1989 Koksan self-propelled artillery systems being transported to Russia, suggesting North Korea is supplying Russia with these long-range weapons for the war in Ukraine.
The War Zone says the M1989 Koksan, capable of firing standard shells up to 40 kilometers and rocket-assisted shells up to 59 kilometers, significantly boosts Russia’s artillery capabilities.
The report says the Koksan’s arrival could exacerbate Ukraine’s artillery deficit, posing a new challenge for Ukrainian forces already struggling against Russia’s superior firepower.
This military cooperation aligns with a broader strategic quid pro quo in which North Korea seeks Russian missile technology and economic support in exchange for its military assistance. This partnership could enhance North Korea’s missile capabilities, exacerbating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
In response, South Korea has signaled a potential policy shift. President Yoon Suk Yeol has hinted at supplying offensive weapons to Ukraine, a move that Russia warned would provoke severe repercussions without elaborating.
Meanwhile, US and South Korean defense officials have launched joint initiatives to counter North Korea’s growing military threat, emphasizing advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum systems.
Significantly, South Korea’s new supersonic cruise could be aimed at decapitating Kim Jong Un’s regime. South Korea’s 2022 Defense White Paper details its “Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR)” plan, which focuses on “deterrence by punishment” by targeting North Korea’s war leadership and critical facilities with overwhelming high-yield, high-precision strategic strike capabilities.
According to the paper, the KMPR plan is part of South Korea’s broader 3K defense system, with the other two components being “Kill Chain” and “Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD).” It says KMPR integrates air, land and sea-based strike assets.
The plan emphasizes enhancing missile ranges, lethality and mass-firing capabilities to counter and retaliate effectively against potential nuclear attacks.
It says precision targeting is bolstered through advanced surveillance, reconnaissance and strike capabilities, aiming to eliminate key targets swiftly.
However, Sungmin Cho points out in a February 2024 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank that South Korea’s offensive military strategy risks escalating tensions and could even provoke a preemptive nuclear response from North Korea.
Cho cautions against threatening the Kim regime’s survival, suggesting that such threats increase the likelihood of desperate actions by North Korea, adding that the risks of escalation outweigh the benefits of South Korea’s strategy.
He suggests that while South Korea’s strategy aims to deter aggression, it must balance military posturing with diplomatic efforts, potentially involving China as a mediator between the two rivals on the Korean Peninsula.
Does it have a built in speaker asking NK please not use nuclear bombs on Seul?
North Korea has nuclear weapons, in case the author missed that little fact. NATO’s former admiral recently made the best case for everyone to grab nukes
He only mentioned it 3 or 4 times, and Kim only mentions it 6 or 7 times a day.
The problem we face is that as long as every dictator, autocrat and megalomaniac keeps trying to leverage nukes to achieve their end goals we are finding ourselves at a juncture where we will have no choice but to call the bluff. We can’t simply capitulate.
Fat boy Kim makes an easy target in a nation of starving people.