N Korea-Russia in suspected missile tech for troops quid pro quo

North Korean troops training in Russia for deployment to Ukraine are sparking alarms over missile tech transfers that could supercharge Pyongyang’s missile arsenal and escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Defense One reported that South Korea’s Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun warned that North Korea might seek advanced missile technology from Russia in exchange for troop deployment.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has confirmed that around 10,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia, where they are “drawing equipment and conducting some training.”
He said they might be sent to Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine has held territory since a surprise invasion in August.

The Russia-North Korea military exchange comes amid Pyongyang’s ongoing efforts to enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities in the face of international sanctions. The Defense One report suggests that Russia’s potential assistance could significantly improve North Korea’s missile targeting and reliability.

Defense One says the US and South Korea have responded by advancing new cooperation agreements to bolster regional security, including technology transfers and joint military exercises that build on a trilateral security framework with Japan aimed at countering North Korea’s growing threat.

As stated in the report, Austin emphasized the existential threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs to the Indo-Pacific region.

In a February 2022 article in the peer-reviewed International Security journal, Jaganath Sankaran and Steve Fetter highlight critical limitations in the reliability and targeting accuracy of North Korean missiles, emphasizing the challenges the US faces in intercepting such threats.

Sankaran and Fetter mention that North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), like the Hwasong-15, though capable of reaching the US, exhibit significant vulnerabilities due to their liquid-fueled technology, which results in longer boost phases.

They say this makes the missiles detectable and more easily intercepted by airborne Boost-Phase Intercept (BPI) systems, such as Aegis-equipped destroyers. They point out that North Korea’s future shift to solid-fuel technology could reduce intercept vulnerabilities, as these missiles would have shorter boost phases.

Further, they say North Korea may acquire sophisticated countermeasures from allies like China or Russia, challenging the effectiveness of the US’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system.

Underscoring North Korea’s progress in developing ICBMs capable of hitting the US mainland, The War Zone reported this month that North Korea has tested its longest-ranged ICBM to date, the Hwasong-19, amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

The War Zone says that the missile, launched from a massive 11-axle transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), is a solid-fuel, multi-stage weapon capable of reaching cities across the US mainland if flown on a standard trajectory.

The report mentions that the Hwasong-19 achieved a record altitude of 7,686 kilometers and flew for 137 kilometers, surpassing previous North Korean ICBM tests. It further states that the missile’s design includes a larger-diameter body and a more advanced TEL than its predecessors, indicating significant advancements in North Korea’s missile technology.

However, despite its impressive capabilities, The War Zone poses questions about the missile’s reliability and survivability, given its size and the challenges of hiding and maneuvering such a large TEL.

Further, Oleksandr Danylyuk mentions in a July 2024 article for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that despite public concern, Russia’s support for North Korea’s missile program is not new.

Danylyuk says that analysis of North Korean missiles used by Russia against Ukraine, such as the KN-23, reveals significant Russian technological influence, including the use of Russian materials and design standards.

He points out that cooperation dates back to the Soviet era, with North Korea’s missile and nuclear capabilities heavily reliant on Soviet and later Russian assistance. Danylyuk says this is part of Russia’s strategy to destabilize regions where the US has security interests, forcing the West into negotiations favorable to Russia.

In addition to missile technology, Victor Cha mentions in a June 2024 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank article that in return for providing Russia with troops, ammunition and ballistic missiles for its Ukraine war effort, North Korea seeks advanced military technology such as telemetry, nuclear submarine technology and military satellite wares.

However, Sankaran and Fetter point out that even with these potential advancements, North Korean ICBMs remain unlikely to match the accuracy and reliability of US missile defense systems, given North Korea’s resource constraints and technological limitations.

Despite that, they point out that the psychological and strategic impact of possessing such weapons amplifies their threat value beyond technical reliability​.

Matching Russia’s technology transfer to North Korea, Breaking Defense reported last month that US Defense Secretary Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Kim announced the formation of a new joint defense science and technology executive committee during a meeting at the Pentagon.

Breaking Defense says this committee will explore Seoul’s participation in AUKUS Pillar II, focusing on cutting-edge technologies such as autonomous systems, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies.

It mentions the announcement follows a US-South Korea security consultative meeting attended by both countries’ respective defense ministers, aiming to enhance defense cooperation and technological advancements within the alliance.

Austin and Kim emphasized the need to address North Korea’s recent deployment of troops to Russia while prioritizing expanding science and technology collaboration.

South Korea has also issued stern warnings to Russia about its support of North Korea’s missile program. Last month, NPR reported that South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol has warned of potential military support for Ukraine in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia.

NPR mentions this announcement came after a summit with Polish President Andrzej Duda in Seoul. According to the report, Yoon emphasized that South Korea would not “sit idle” in the face of such provocations, hinting at a potential shift in policy to supply offensive weapons to Ukraine.

In response, Russia warned South Korea of severe consequences if it intervened in the Ukraine conflict. In June 2024, Reuters reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin said that South Korea would face severe repercussions if it decided to supply arms to Ukraine.

Reuters said that Putin emphasized that Russia would respond in a manner that would be particularly painful for South Korea. The report mentions that Putin’s remarks underscore the potential for further escalation on the Korean Peninsula, as he also hinted at the possibility of supplying advanced weapons to North Korea in response to Western actions.