Harris or Trump, Philippines sitting pretty with America

MANILA – Ahead of one of America’s most contentious-ever elections, one Asian state is doubling down with confidence in its alliance with Washington.

In stark contrast to key European and Asian capitals, where there is much handwringing over the future direction of American foreign policy, the Philippines is bullish regardless if Trump or Harris wins the White House. 

That’s because the Filipino strategic elite believes that relations with their sole mutual defense treaty ally will remain intact, if not dramatically improve, in the coming years as both Republicans and Democrats agree on the need to contain China, including in the South China Sea.

If anything, Manila is highly optimistic about the prospect of even stronger bilateral relations should former President Donald Trump win the election.

Back in the US, meanwhile, Filipino-Americans are also among the staunchest of his supporters with minority groups. Thanks to their large presence in swing states such as Nevada, the Filipino-American community exercises significant influence on the fate of the upcoming elections.

“With President Trump, an allied partner needs to play an (active) role,” Philippine Ambassador to Washington, Jose Romualdez, told this writer earlier this year.  “And we will [surely] do our part. We need to work together for our own interest. [And] our Republican friends have been very appreciative of [us playing a more proactive role],” he added.

For the Philippines’ top envoy to Washington, who also happens to be a first cousin of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the long-term prospect for bilateral relations is bright. “Whether it’s a Republican or Democratic, we will do our part,” he argued, emphasizing bipartisan support for strong bilateral relations for the foreseeable future.

The Southeast Asian nation is walking the talk. Despite China’s vehement opposition, the Philippines has made it clear that it will continue to host America’s state-of-the-art weapons systems, most notably the Typhon missile system, under an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) regime.

Moreover, the Southeast Asian country is also fortifying its trilateral relations with both the US and Japan, along with other key Western partners from Europe to Australia, who are keen on tapping the Philippines’ vast potential as a critical minerals’ supplier and semiconductor production site.

The Marcos Jr. administration has good reason to feel confident about its “personal diplomacy” with either of the two candidates. By all accounts, Vice President Kamala Harris had a successful trip to Manila in late 2022, just months after Marcos Jr’s inauguration.

During the trip, Harris managed to build rapport with key constituencies in the Philippines and won applause from both the security establishment, which welcomed her visit to the frontline province of Palawan facing the South China Sea, as well as her engagement with journalists and civil society groups focused on human rights and democracy issues.

Given her Asian American background and her instinctive familiarity with the Asian region, Harris as president would enjoy optimal ties with key allies like the Philippines.

Much has been written about former Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte’s bromance with Donald Trump when the two populists were in power.

Amid the political fallout between the Dutertes and Marcoses, there is even a fanciful narrative among Duterte supporters that the return of a populist to the White House could radically revamp bilateral relations in their favor.

But the Marcos Jr administration has every reason to feel confident about its relations with a Trump 2.0 presidency. After all, the Marcoses have had a half-a-century-long relationship with the former real estate mogul.

The notorious Filipino clan reportedly even owned a Trump building in America, while former First Lady Imelda Marcos had an intimate friendship with the former US president during their heydays in Manhattan. Not to mention that both Marcos Sr and Trump shared similar campaign managers and political branding strategies.

Beyond sentiments and personal ties, however, what binds the US and the Philippines is shared geopolitical interests, particularly their threat perceptions toward China.

“We have very strong bipartisan support from both the Republicans and Democrats,” the US ambassador to Washington, Jose Romualdez, told this author. “Our mutual interests are at stake, [and] we have same interests in stabilizing the region,” he added, underscoring his optimism about continuity in bilateral relations due to shared interests.

With Kamala Harris, the Marcos Jr administration expects continuity in the Biden administration’s foreign policy, which has focused on building a coalition of like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific to keep China’s ambitions in check.

With Trump, however, many Filipino strategists expect an even more Asia-focused and Sino-skeptic foreign policy, which could directly benefit the Philippines.

Leading strategists in the first Trump administration, some of whom are expected to reassume prominent positions next year should Republicans recapture the White House, have publicly advocated for a foreign policy that is music to the ears of China hawks in Manila.

To begin with, former US deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger has advocated for a more proactive China containment strategy. Others like Elbridge Colby, one of the chief architects of the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) at the Pentagon, have identified the Philippines as key partner for America’s grand strategy against China.

For Colby, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development from 2017 to 2018, the Philippines is a “frontline” state that deserved maximal American military and strategic support against a revanchist China.

Former US national security adviser Robert O’Brien has also argued along similar lines.  “[T]he United States should focus its Pacific diplomacy on allies such as Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea, traditional partners such as Singapore, and emerging ones such as Indonesia and Vietnam,” he argued in an oft-cited Foreign Affairs piece.

“Congress should help build up the armed forces of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam by extending to them the kinds of grants, loans, and weapons transfers that the United States has long offered Israel. The Philippines, in particular, needs rapid support in its standoff with Chinese forces in the South China Sea. The navy should undertake a crash program to refurbish decommissioned ships and then donate them to the Philippines, including frigates and amphibious assault ships sitting in reserve in Philadelphia and Hawaii,” he added,

In many ways, the Philippines is actively laying the ground for expanded military cooperation with the US, regardless of whether the Republicans or Democrats are in the White House. On one hand, it’s doubling down on security cooperation with not only the US, but also other key powers such as Japan.

Last month, the three allies held the US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral cyber and digital dialogue on the sidelines of the 9th Singapore International Cyber Week.

Among those in attendance were the US Ambassador at Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick, the Philippine Information and Communications Technology Undersecretary for Infostructure Management, Cybersecurity and Upskilling Jeffrey Ian Dy  and Japan’s Deputy Assistant Minister for Cyber Security and Information Technology Management Yukio Saita.

“During the dialogue, officials discussed trilateral cooperation in cyberspace, including civilian cybersecurity capacity building, cybersecurity workforce development, maritime cybersecurity, and information sharing,” the US State Department said in a statement.  “The United States, Japan, and the Philippines will continue to work together to enhance international cyberspace stability, data security and privacy, and cyber and digital capacity building in the region.”

The three allies are also focusing on supply-chain resilience and strategic economic cooperation. Both Japan and the US are rapidly onshoring and upgrading their semiconductor production capacity. The Philippines, however, provides a unique opportunity for enhancing America’s “de-risking” strategy vis-à-vis China.

As the world’s second-largest producer of nickel, the Southeast Asian nation is positioning itself as a chief ‘China-free’ provider of critical minerals for EV battery production. This is crucial since Chinese companies have dominated almost the entire EV supply chain in neighboring Indonesia and also across Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

Moreover, the Philippines is also seeking to become a major producer of increasingly sophisticated semiconductors and a potential design and packaging site for top chip-making companies from neighboring Taiwan.

 “We are a trusted partner right now, we provide a major destination for semiconductor production”, Romualdez told this writer, when asked about strategic economic cooperation under a future US president.   

Just as crucial is the Philippines’ decision to welcome an ever-larger American military presence and, accordingly, host state-of-the-art weapons systems which could target China-based missile systems in the event of any conflict in the region, including over Taiwan.

“What it does collectively, it provides us the opportunity to understand how to employ that capability — the environmental challenges here are very unique to any other place in the region,” US Major General Marcus Evans, commanding general of the Hawaii-based 25th Infantry Division said after the Philippines signaled its interest in permanently hosting the Typhon missile system, which has a range of up to 1,600 kilometers (994 miles), meaning it can hit targets in mainland China from Philippine soil.

“[We have been conducting] incredibly important operations [together] because you get to work in the environment, but most importantly, you’re working alongside our partners here in the Philippines to understand how those will be integrated into their operations [in the event of a contingency],” the US general added after the US and Philippine armies conducted major wargames last month to underscore growing interoperability and joint preparedness for any future regional conflict.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian