ASEAN core quietly converging on China in South China Sea

MANILA – The South China Sea disputes pitting China against rival Southeast Asian states have entered a perilous new phase as China and the Philippines tilt toward direct armed confrontation over a growing number of contested maritime features.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical stakes of the confrontation are spiking as the United States and its allies conduct patrols in the disputed waters, drawing Beijing’s ire and complaint the Americans are deliberately destabilizing an already tense maritime theater which includes Taiwan.

And yet, the latest Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) Summit held in Laos was mainly silent on the troubling direction of the disputes and, specifically, the China predicament faced by bloc members such as the Philippines. Despite releasing a long chairman statement, ASEAN failed to forge any consensus on concrete mechanisms to address the brewing crisis.

Laos, a key trading and investment partner of China, largely dictated the terms and topics of the summit’s discussions. In his intervention, Chinese Premier Li Qiang nonchalantly insisted that China has consistently committed itself to “international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).”

Li also said China has “honored the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), opted for dialogue and consultation with countries directly concerned in properly handling differences and actively engaged in practical maritime cooperation.”

Despite China’s rising militarization of disputed land features and its regular naval drills and deployment of armadas of militia and coast guard vessels across the hotly disputed maritime region, Li maintained that “there are no obstacles whatsoever to freedom of navigation or overflight in the South China Sea.”

ASEAN’s Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn, a Cambodian national, reinforced China’s narrative by insisting that negotiations over a South China Sea Code of Conduct have been moving in the right direction. “It’s not static, it’s not standstill,” he said.  

Openly frustrated by ASEAN’s perceived diffidence and inaction, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr became the only regional leader, the first since Benigno Aquino in 2012, to publicly express dissatisfaction with the regional bloc’s stance on China.

“We continue to be subjected to harassment and intimidation,” the Filipino leader said in a not-so-veiled criticism of China. “Parties must be earnestly open to seriously managing the differences and to reduce tensions,” he said. Marcos Jr also chided ASEAN for its chelonian negotiations on a South China Sea Code of Conduct.

“There should be more urgency in the pace of the negotiations of the ASEAN-China code of conduct,” Marcos continued, underscoring how “[even] the definition of a concept as basic as ‘self-restraint’ does not yet enjoy consensus.”

The Filipino leader also pushed back against China’s tactic of focusing solely on bilateral trade and investment with the region, saying, “you cannot separate economic cooperation from political security.”

In response, China and its overt regional proxies, namely Laos and Cambodia, have sought to portray the Philippines as a “troublemaker” acting at the behest of its United States ally.

With Malaysia, another South China Sea claimant state that has wrestled with Chinese intimidation, taking over as ASEAN’s rotational chairman next year, there is certain expectation that the maritime disputes will receive greater attention in 2025.

Although the Philippines is the only regional state currently publicly criticizing and vigorously resisting China’s rising maritime assertiveness, core ASEAN states like Indonesia have expressed similar sentiments on the rising need to manage the South China Sea disputes more effectively.

For its part, China has wasted no time in exploiting the Philippines’ supposed strategic solitude within ASEAN.

“Manila, under the current administration, that made itself a troublemaker in the region, putting up obstacles to cooperation and prosperity, and adding risks of bloc confrontation that benefits no one and only serves the hegemonic interests of external powers,” declared China’s Communist Party-run Global Times mouthpiece, which consistently and provocatively portrays the Southeast Asian nation as an American pawn.

According to Li Haidong, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University quoted in the propaganda-carrying newspaper, the Philippines is “being seriously manipulated or even controlled by the US,” and therefore, its “decision-makers can [not] make independent decisions based on the Philippines’ own interests and the region’s peace and stability.”

Chinese commentaries have recently leveraged a curious piece by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a British think tank, which warned of “diplomatic decoupling” in the South China Sea. It underscored how fellow ASEAN states “feel the Philippines has drifted too far from China and been overly belligerent [under Marcos Jr’s administration].”

In response, the often-fiery spokesman of the Philippine Coast Guard, Commodore Jay Tarriela, argued that “The Philippines stands as the sole ASEAN member actively denouncing China’s illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions in the South China Sea.”

“Our stance is not merely a fight for our rights in the West Philippine Sea; it reflects our commitment to upholding the rule of law, protecting the marine environment, and safeguarding the livelihoods of local fishermen. Beijing must cease its narrative that we are merely pawns of Washington,” Tarriela posted on X.

In reality, however, core ASEAN states have expressed concern about the South China Sea disputes, albeit in less vigorous terms as Manila. “The South China Sea is a live and immediate issue, with real risks of an accident spiraling into conflict,” Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told fellow leaders during this month’s ASEAN Summit.

Unlike the Philippines and Singapore, most ASEAN states lack robust military ties with the US and are generally more circumspect in their statements on the South China Sea disputes. Malaysia’s navy chief recently declared the situation in the area is generally stable.

“It is true that [Chinese Coast Guard] vessels are present [in Malaysian waters], but they do not engage aggressively with us. When our ships meet them, their responses have been positive; they do not act aggressively,” Royal Malaysian Navy chief Admiral Datuk Zulhelmy Ithnain told reporters.

Such diplomatic statements obscure the fact that Malaysia has actively pushed ahead with unilateral oil exploration activities in adjacent waters despite China’s vehement opposition. Malaysia also filed an extended continual shelf claim at the United Nations in 2019, directly challenging Beijing’s expansive nine-dash line claim in the area.

When Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim suggested possible joint resource development agreements with China in the South China Sea, he faced a firestorm of nationalistic criticism at home last year, underscoring a hardening domestic stance over China’s actions in the disputed waters.

When China recently tried to pressure Malaysia against continuing its energy exploration activities in the waters, Malaysia’s foreign ministry indirectly criticized the Asian power for “intentionally provocative, unnecessarily hostile [actions]”  and made it clear that Putrajaya is determined to “operate in our waters and secure economic advantage, including drilling for oil in our territory” despite external opposition.

Meanwhile, the Philippines and Vietnam have been quietly building a united front in the sea’s disputed waters. Earlier this year, the two ASEAN members conducted their first-ever joint coast guard drills in the South China Sea and are known to be pursuing closer military ties.

Crucially, they are also exploring maritime border delimitation deals in the disputed areas, laying down the foundation for a de facto Code of Conduct among Southeast Asian claimant states exclusive of China.

The two sides have also expressed solidarity during various critical junctures, namely when the Philippines filed an international arbitration case against China at The Hague over the maritime disputes and, most recently, when Chinese maritime forces harassed a group of Vietnamese fishermen.

Indonesia, the de facto leader in ASEAN, has also pushed for growing maritime security coordination among regional states. For its part, the sprawling Southeast Asian nation has been at loggerheads with China due to overlapping claims in the Natuna Islands, part of which China also claims in its nine-dash line map.

Indonesia, which is expected to take a more assertive foreign policy stance under the newly installed Prabowo Subianto administration, has also repeatedly emphasized the need to preserve “ASEAN centrality” and, accordingly, pushed for more regularized joint military activities with regional states.

Last year, Indonesia hosted the first-ever all-ASEAN naval drills, which could serve as a template for more institutionalized and consequential naval exercises among core Southeast Asian states in the future.

Overall, ASEAN states may not speak the same language or adopt a similar tone on China’s maritime assertiveness and aggression, but core members are converging on the joint need for more effective and peaceful management of the disputes before they spill over into armed conflict.

Shawn W. Crispin contributed reporting from Bangkok.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian