Shigeru Ishiba’s rise to the premiership represents a potentially significant turn for Japan, with questions abound about how much he will retain and change his predecessor Fumio Kishida’s policies and paradigms.
While Ishiba is widely expected to uphold many of Kishida’s initiatives, including on foreign relations and economic strategy, he may also implement substantial departures in domestic policy amid the nation’s many evolving and profound challenges.
Kishida’s ultimately unpopular administration was characterized by cautious yet steady policy-making, with an emphasis on economic stimulus measures that sought to balance growth and inflation.
His government aimed to modernize Japan through digital transformation while seeking ways to address demographic challenges posed by a fast-aging population and diminishing workforce. Social welfare reforms, particularly on pensions, were thus integral to Kishida’s agenda.
On foreign policy, Kishida prioritized enhancing Japan’s alliances, particularly with the United States, while amplifying Japan’s role in multilateral frameworks such as the Quad. Kishida adopted a highly measured diplomatic posture toward China and Russia, seeking to balance economic interests with security considerations.
His initiatives to restore relations with South Korea and strengthen ties with ASEAN nations, including Indonesia, were notable diplomatic accomplishments.
Kishida’s tenure also saw Japan’s increasing alignment with NATO, including discussions on the establishment of a NATO liaison office in Japan, signaling Japan’s growing integration within Western security frameworks in response to regional threats.
Ishiba’s approach to domestic policy is expected to integrate continuity with innovation. Economically, he will likely sustain Kishida’s fiscal stimulus policies, especially if the global economy remains sluggish amid slowing growth in China and the US.
However, there is already speculation that Ishiba may shift toward a more fiscally conservative stance by implementing austerity measures and tax reforms to bring down the substantial national debt. Such a shift would represent a significant departure from Kishida’s approach and could have profound implications for Japan’s economic stability.
At the same time, Ishiba will face pressure to address more squarely the challenges posed by Japan’s graying population. While Kishida’s pension reforms established a foundational framework, Ishiba may need to introduce more comprehensive policies that tackle labor shortages, potentially by promoting greater immigration or investing more in automation and artificial intelligence.
On foreign policy, Ishiba’s approach to Japan-South Korea relations will be quickly and closely scrutinized. Kishida made significant strides in improving these often-tense relations, particularly through collaboration on regional security issues.
Ishiba is likely to continue on this path, although he may also seek to address unresolved historical grievances with a fresh perspective, potentially alleviating long-standing tensions and paving the way for a more robust bilateral partnership.
On Japan-Indonesia relations, Ishida is expected to build on Kishida’s initiatives aimed at strengthening economic and maritime security cooperation. Given Indonesia’s prominence in Southeast Asia, Ishiba could seek to expand this budding partnership, particularly in sectors such as the digital economy and infrastructure development.
This approach not only promises economic benefits for Japan but would also serve to enhance its influence across ASEAN while countering China’s increasing power and presence via its Belt and Road Initiative and fast-growing trade ties.
To be sure, Japan-China relations will present Ishida with perhaps his most multifaceted and crucial challenge. Kishida’s administration navigated a delicate balance, cultivating economic ties, often complicated and inflamed by the US-led tech war and chip curbs on China, while at the same time tackling security concerns head-on, particularly the two sides’ territorial disputes in the East China Sea.
Ishiba, a former defense minister, may thus adopt an even more assertive approach to security issues, potentially accelerating Japan’s already robust remilitarization while seeking even closer security cooperation with other regional powers. At the same time, he will need to maintain economic ties with China, Japan’s top trade partner, to maintain economic stability at a delicate juncture for the global economy.
Ishiba’s approach to Japan-Russia relations, meanwhile, is expected to reflect Kishida’s cautious stance, particularly in the context of ongoing global tensions involving Russia, including in Ukraine. Front and center will be the two sides’ energy cooperation, which Ishiba could conceivably downgrade in favor of more stable and secure sources in the name of economic and supply chain security.
One of the most compelling prospects under Ishiba will be the potential for a more open relationship with North Korea. Kishida’s administration maintained stringent sanctions and applied new pressure on North Korea over its nuclear program and the long-thorny issue of Japanese abductees.
While Ishiba is unlikely to abandon these hard-line positions, he may seek diplomatic openings, especially if Pyongyang gives fresh indications of a willingness to engage in dialogue. This would represent a significant shift with important implications for regional security and Japan’s role in East Asia.
Japan-United States relations will, of course, remain the cornerstone of Tokyo’s foreign policy. Under Kishida, the alliance was strongly fortified through enhanced military cooperation amid shared concerns about China’s expanding influence and rising aggression in nearby waters.
Ishiba is anticipated to sustain and potentially deepen the relationship, including along the lines of America’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at counterbalancing China’s rise and power, regardless of which candidate wins at US elections in November.
The potential establishment of a NATO liaison office in Japan would underscore its commitment to global security frameworks and align the nation more closely with Western defense initiatives. Ishiba’s administration could leverage this relationship to bolster Japan’s security posture and reinforce its relevance in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.
On the global stage, Ishiba’s participation in the Quad will likely remain robust as the grouping shifts toward more economic and wider-reaching security initiatives, perpetuating Kishida’s multilateral efforts to counter China’s influence in the region.
Similarly, within the framework of the Trilateral Commission, which encompasses Japan, the United States and Europe, Ishiba will likely uphold Japan’s commitment to multilateral dialogue while perhaps introducing new initiatives aimed at strengthening global governance in an increasingly multipolar world.
All in all, Ishiba’s premiership is poised to exemplify a delicate balance of continuity and change. While he is expected to uphold many of Kishida’s policies, particularly in the realm of foreign relations, his approach to domestic issues and certain international relationships may move Japan in new directions.
Ishiba’s success will hinge on his ability to balance continuity and change effectively, addressing Japan’s immediate challenges while positioning the country vis-à-vis China in an increasingly complex geostrategic and global environment.
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat. He received his master’s degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.