MANILA – Of all Southeast Asian states, the Philippines stands out for its increasingly antagonistic relations with China. As tensions twist and turn in the South China Sea, broad bilateral relations are likewise in growing turmoil.
The previous Duterte presidency oversaw a dramatic improvement in bilateral relations. But that era is now firmly in the rearview mirror under Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who has presided over an unprecedented deterioration in ties.
Despite negotiating a “provisional agreement” to manage a spike in tensions over the Second Thomas Shoal, the site of multiple clashes in past months, the two sides are again at hot loggerheads over other contested features in the South China Sea.
Just a week after Philippine military authorities accused Chinese fighter jets of conducting unsafe and dangerous maneuvers against Philippine patrol aircraft near the contested Scarborough Shoal, another major collision took place on August 19 near the Sabina Shoal.
The Philippine National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea, which oversees parts of the South China Sea claimed by Manila, claimed that Chinese vessels conducted “unlawful and aggressive maneuvers [that] resulted in collisions causing structural damage to [two] Philippine Coast Guard vessels [patrolling in the area].”
Chinese authorities immediately blamed their Filipino counterparts, who they alleged “deliberately collided” with their vessels.
“Philippine coast guard vessels … illegally entered the waters near the [Sabina Reef] in the [Spratly Group of Islands] without permission from the Chinese government,” claimed China Coast Guard spokesperson Geng Yu. He claimed the Chinese side “took control measures against the Philippine vessels in accordance with the law.”
Earlier this year, China unilaterally imposed new regulations against “trespassers” across its nine-dash line area of claim, which covers the bulk of the South China Sea.
A 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, initiated by Manila under the auspices of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), rejected Beijing’s expansive claims as contrary to modern international law.
Trouble at sea, however, is now being mirrored inside the Philippines, which is actively seeking to reduce economic dependence on China while cracking down on alleged Chinese criminal groups operating in the country.
The upshot has been the gradual untethering of people-to-people relations as many Chinese nationals have become ensnared by Chinese criminal groups behind the once-thriving online casino industry in the Philippines.
A spate of kidnapping, torture and murder cases have propelled Filipino officials to ban Chinese online casinos and tighten visa restrictions for Chinese nationals.
That’s all happening against the backdrop of a new spike in South China Sea tensions after a period of relative calm.
Earlier this month, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief General Romeo Brawner Jr accused a People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft of engaging in “dangerous and provocative actions” in the airspace over the Scarborough Shoal, located just over 100 nautical miles from Philippine shores.
During a routine patrol by a Philippine Air Force (PAF) NC-212i aircraft, a PLAAF fighter jet allegedly executed a dangerous maneuver and even dropped flares in the path of its Philippine counterpart.
The Scarborough Shoal has been under China’s administrative control since a months-long naval standoff in mid-2012, but Philippine authorities have consistently challenged the new status quo by conducting routine aerial and occasional maritime patrols in the area.
China maintains that it has sovereignty over both the disputed land feature as well as the airspace above it. But the Philippines maintains that not only is it the rightful owner of the Scarborough Shoal but that China’s actions contravene both UNCLOS, which affirms Manila’s exclusive economic zone in the area, and the Chicago Convention on aviation safety.
Then came the latest incident at the Sabina Shoal. The precise circumstances of the incident are still unclear, but it appears that China mistook Philippine routine patrols across the Spratlys as part of a suspected plan to fortify Manila’s military presence on the contested shoal.
Philippine authorities insist that their Coast Guard vessels were not even headed for the Sabina Shoal but rather to other Philippine-occupied land features in the South China Sea, some of which have only minimal military presences.
However, Chinese authorities likely fear that the Philippines will try to replicate its successful establishment in the past and recent fortification of military facilities on the Second Thomas Shoal.
The Philippine government has responded to the Sabina Shola incident with a two-track approach. On one hand, it’s mulling filing a diplomatic protest with China over the incident as well as potential new legal cases.
On the other, discussions are being held about potentially expanding the “provisional agreement” over the Second Thomas Shoal to other contested land features.
The details of that deal remain murky, but the two sides have likely agreed to exchange some information and coordinate to some degree to avoid misunderstanding and military escalation across the disputed waters.
Nevertheless, broad bilateral relations are headed down not up. Although trade remains robust, both investment and people-to-people relations are gradually disintegrating.
Philippine authorities have openly advocated for decoupling from Chinese critical minerals and infrastructure investments in favor of Western investors in the name of national security.
Last year, the Marcos Jr administration effectively pulled out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) over multiple Chinese big-ticket infrastructure projects that were promised but not delivered.
At the same time, there are few, if any, signs of big Chinese tech, digital and electric vehicle (EV) companies that have been active in neighboring Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand in recent years have any interest in investing in the Philippines.
Unlike other regional nations that have put out a welcome mat for Chinese interests, the Marcos Jr administration has tightened travel restrictions on Chinese nationals amid a widespread crackdown on Chinese-run online casinos, known locally as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators, or POGOs.
“Disguising as legitimate entities, their operations have ventured into illicit areas furthest from gaming, such as financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, [and] even murder. The grave abuse and disrespect to our system of laws must stop,” Marcos Jr declared during his third State of the Nation Address last month in which he announced a blanket ban on POGOs.
Meanwhile, the sensational case of Alice Guo, a Chinese national-turned-Filipino who surreptitiously ended up as a city mayor allegedly in cahoots with criminal syndicate groups has sparked a national outcry over Chinese criminal influence. Guo reportedly managed to evade authorities and exit the Philippines.
“We will expose the culprits who have betrayed the people’s trust and aided in her flight,” the Filipino president said in a statement. “Those responsible will be suspended and will be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.”
Guo’s case has reinforced fears of espionage activities by thousands of Chinese nationals working in POGO-related businesses.
Meanwhile, countless Chinese nationals who sought lucrative jobs in the Philippines based on false promises have ended up as victims of various criminal syndicate groups that operate online casinos in major Philippine cities.
This has made the Southeast Asian nation even less attractive to Chinese tourists, who statistics show now prefer safer and more accessible alternatives like Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia.
In fact, Chinese tourist arrivals in the Philippines have dramatically declined, prompting the Chinese-Filipino business community to openly call for a lifting of visa restrictions on Chinese nationals.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian
As usual. the same writer the same smear.
China seems to have a border dispute with most of her neighbors…. India, Japan, Taiwan, Ph, Vietnam, Indon, Russia, Tibet & E Turkmenistan.