Recent developments in the Middle East are jeopardizing Joe Biden’s reelection campaign as he risks losing the Jewish American, Arab American as well as the youth vote. It’s a political reality that should have him looking for a discernible course correction before November’s election.
But time is increasingly not on Biden’s side. In Iran, the helicopter crash killing President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has come at a crucial time, halting critical negotiations that could provide a way out of the Gaza imbroglio.
Meanwhile, in The Hague, Prosecutor Karim Khan’s request for the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas leaders has further inflamed the region’s already volatile dynamics.
Moreover, the recognition of a Palestinian state by Ireland, Norway and Spain, alongside support from several European countries for Khan’s arrest warrant application, hints at a deepening rift within the West.
These developments all highlight the urgent need for Biden to quickly reassess his administration’s Middle East strategy, strengthen ongoing diplomatic efforts and align more closely with international allies.
The Biden administration still sees a golden opportunity for a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia but this remains contingent on Israel’s acceptance of the creation of a Palestinian state. However, Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain steadfastly opposed to the notion.
Domestically, Biden faces significant challenges not only from presidential contender Donald Trump, who appears increasingly to have Netanyahu on his side, but also from within his Democratic Party, which his divided over Biden’s waffling stance on Israel’s war in Gaza.
Failing to address these issues quickly and decisively could derail both the potential Israel-Saudi Arabia agreement but also Biden’s reelection prospects.
There are no quick fixes to Iran, where seasoned diplomat Brett McGurk – Biden’s Middle East point man – has been working toward building understanding with policymakers in Tehran.
Until Raisi’s death, talks were reportedly promising, as both countries aimed to reach an agreement that would provide Iran with sanctions relief while leaving its nuclear program largely intact.
In return, Iran would commit to restraining the Houthis in the Red Sea and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, thereby preventing the Gaza conflict from escalating into a full-blown regional war.
Tehran is also being urged not to disrupt the two-state solution, even if Israel’s version of it falls short of expectations. Mindful of Tehran’s history of disrupting US-Arab security relations, McGurk also sought assurances that Iran wouldn’t undermine the defense agreement the US is negotiating with Saudi Arabia.
These diplomatic efforts are crucial for regional stability and Biden’s foreign policy legacy. However, with Raisi’s sudden demise, the Biden administration will have to work extra hard to revive and restore the negotiations, which will inevitably be delayed as new leadership is installed and the regime prioritizes internal stability.
Compounding the situation is ICC Prosecutor Khan’s request for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders. The ICC’s decision to categorize Israeli officials alongside Hamas leaders, accusing both of war crimes and crimes against humanity, has sparked hot anger in Israel and the Biden administration.
That’s because the ICC’s classification equates the actions of an established state with those of a militant group many see as a terrorist organization. European support for Prosecutor Khan’s move, coupled with key European countries recognizing Palestine, has clearly rattled Israeli authorities.
Netanyahu has seized upon the ICC’s call to mobilize nationalist sentiment, framing the arrest request as an indictment of the wider Israeli military establishment. At home, Netanyahu is capitalizing on the situation, positioning himself and Defense Minister Gallant as victims of an international witch hunt.
President Biden’s public criticism of the Netanyahu government’s treatment of Palestinian civilians contrasts with his administration’s limited action so far during Israel’s incursion into Rafah. Indeed, there’s concern that tacit American support will embolden Netanyahu to escalate the Gaza war further.
The Biden administration’s dilemma lies largely in its limp response to Israel’s intransigence. While it voices complaints and limits certain arms shipments, it ultimately appears impotent in the global eye to demand an Israeli course shift.
Arab nations, keenly aware of the flaws in American proposals and the Biden administration’s wavering commitments, are cautious about his grand bargain ambitions.
Saudi Arabia, exemplifying steely pragmatism, has emphasized its position clearly and openly. Given Israel’s open opposition to a Palestinian state, Riyadh’s message to both Israel and the Biden administration is unequivocal: no Palestinian state, no diplomatic relations with Israel.
Contrary to Biden’s aspirations for a grand bargain, Saudi officials have approached talks with Washington on defense agreements and peaceful nuclear cooperation as bilateral rather than trilateral.
The implications of these Middle East setbacks for Biden’s political future are still uncertain. What is clear is that they are amplifying pressure on the president as he risks losing the Jewish American, Arab American and youth votes on November 5. Only decisive, bold steps will save the day and time is short.