As Beijing, on a near daily basis, conducts military exercises near Taiwan and seeks to deter outsiders from the area, modernizes its armed forces and bolsters its relationship with Moscow, Washington seems to be paving the way for a meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping sometime soon.
However, the fact that the leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world – ones who are billed as each other’s primary challenge – have not spoken in nearly a year contradicts the basics of diplomacy and threatens to do more harm to both sides than good.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s meeting in Malta and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s meeting with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly are steps in the right direction, but a regular process is needed.
At the very least, the US president and Chinese paramount leader should meet annually to press forward realistically achievable objectives, obtain clarity and stability in the relationship, and reduce the risk of military escalation.
An annual sit-down between the US president and Chinese leader has the greatest chance of resolving realistically solvable issues and moving forward on objectives of mutual interest.
US-China relations are in a downward spiral tinged with political vitriol, but that is no reason for Washington to shy away from attempting to negotiate with Beijing at the highest level.
Meetings between heads of state are the highest diplomatic art and can galvanize bureaucracies in the respective leader’s country to meaningfully address issues. What the leaders say goes. Policies and actions are typically filtered through this lens.
This is especially important for realistically solvable problems, like Chinese-sourced fentanyl killing thousands of Americans each year. The fentanyl crisis contributes to galvanizing political and public support for a hardline US position on almost all things related to China.
While Beijing certainly would prefer this to go away and boost its reputation, China’s own anti-drugs policy – among the harshest in the world – makes resolving the issue more realistic. Beijing does not want to be seen as a global drug lord and contradicting its domestic policies. A high-level push from Biden and Xi could favorably resolve the problem for both sides.
While the major goal of Biden’s meetings with his Chinese counterpart should focus on concrete and achievable objectives, providing clarity to the relationship is also essential.
Only the president can convey US foreign policy to the Chinese leader that no other US official can. His word is US policy. Vice versa for China, if not more so. As the world shifts to a more multipolar order – with the US and China playing leadership roles – it is essential that both sides more deeply understand one another’s foreign policy visions to potentially avoid a conflict.
Achieving clarity will require difficult conversations. Both US and Chinese leaders, officials and politicians will need to be clear-eyed and realistic in their objectives and approach each other from a position of strategic empathy. Understanding each other’s vital and core national interests is essential so that red lines can be recognized.
A formal, annual process can also help restore a degree of stability to the US-China relationship. A regular meeting would keep lines of communication open at all levels, cascading down from the White House and Zhongnanhai to individual agencies and sub-agencies across the US and Chinese governments.
Open communication channels from junior to senior levels could help alleviate thorny subjects or escalate major concerns before they become problematic. Red lines could be more easily managed or avoided altogether. This could reduce the chance of the relationship becoming further politically toxic, which stifles progress on accomplishing American interests toward China.
But these meetings can also provide an outlet to air grievances to help cool US-China tensions, an interest for both parties. Venting through diplomacy on a regular basis could reduce pressure to escalate tensions and engage in shows of force which could lead to accidents or an offensive-defensive spiral, such as in the Taiwan Strait or the East and South China Sea. An accidental US-China conflict would go against their respective domestic security, economic and political interests.
Long term, an annual convening of US and Chinese leaders could lay the groundwork for resolving disagreements over trade and economic practices, certain human rights issues and domestic interference. It is vital that both the US president and the CCP General Secretary do their jobs and meet each other on a regular basis to resolve fixable problems, clarify foreign policy visions, stabilize the US-China relationship and reduce tensions that could lead to the destruction of both countries.
The American and Chinese people, let alone the world, will be better for it.
Quinn Marschik is a Contributing Fellow at Defense Priorities